i endorse your each and every word.
but CJ-1000A is a different project. started just in 2018. that too a civilian project. its been only 6-7 years.. so its unfair to compare CJ-1000A development cycle with WS-15.
Chinese Engine Development
- Thread starter jackbh
- Start date
but CJ-1000A is a different project. started just in 2018. that too a civilian project. its been only 6-7 years.. so its unfair to compare CJ-1000A development cycle with WS-15.
I get @ACuriousPLAFan 's impulse.
Yes Chinese engine capabilities have progressed incredibly over the past 2 decades. Considering that WS10C as it stands today had already progressed further than the original WS15 design target. But for WS15 we have been fed just way too many years of broken promises and delays, that in 2025, just as we thought the wait is over, some new shenanigans happen. No matter the cause or the materiality of the issues, this sort of delay wakes up all your bad memories and turns your stomach.
Yes Chinese engine capabilities have progressed incredibly over the past 2 decades. Considering that WS10C as it stands today had already progressed further than the original WS15 design target. But for WS15 we have been fed just way too many years of broken promises and delays, that in 2025, just as we thought the wait is over, some new shenanigans happen. No matter the cause or the materiality of the issues, this sort of delay wakes up all your bad memories and turns your stomach.
I've added more in my updated post.
i m shifting Engine discussion here.
AEP-400/AEP-500 is done.. we need more information but looks like KJ-600 Already started with brand new AEP-400 engines..
AEP-400/AEP-500 is done.. we need more information but looks like KJ-600 Already started with brand new AEP-400 engines..
I saw someone on Weibo claim the new Y-9Q recently captured on video is using the AEP400, anyone know if the GX series has also already switched to AEP400/500?
I wouldn't think about it that way. I think engines are just hard and they take time.
And running over time and budget it not uncommon. So, if you want to use WS-15 as an example, then maybe don't expect CJ-1000A to be ready by 2027. Maybe it will take another 2 to 3 years after that for your first major world class civilian aeroengine project.
Always better to keep your expectations more realistic.
You guys think this is bad now, then you were certainly not around here when the J-11B/WS-10 debacle stopped J-11B deliveries. That took years for to fully resolve.
The long delays with WS-15 is sort of an anomaly because it was kind of a bait and switch. You can think of WS-10C as basically the original WS-15. Because WS-10C performance has basically reached original WS-15 requirements they redesigned WS-15 to new requirements but they still called it WS-15. This leads to a situation in which it appears WS-15 is in development for much longer than it actually was because moving goalposts.
So if it helps you can like in your mind rename WS-10C as WS-15 and the new WS-15 as idk some other number, WS-XX. With that renumbering it becomes clear that original WS-15 did become available in a reasonable time frame. Given that the work on the new WS-15 specs only began more recently (I think 2018 is the rumor?) it makes sense that it's becoming available around now and there are some issues that might delay it a bit. This is all in line with a standard timeline. The only reason it looks like WS-15 is taking ages is because moving goalposts.
At the same time I think looking at prior projects can lead to overly pessimistic forecasting. The reason prior projects took the time that they did was because there was both a lack of experience and critical technological base. The entire support system for development is not in the same place as it was a decade ago.
there are in fact many reasons to be optimistic about future projects, but the context of this is we had a meltdown on J-20 thread over the fact WS-15 is not really for the initial J-20A. So my point is that they could significantly exceed timeline for previous projects like initial WS-10, but they may also take longer than that for any number of reasons. If people approach it that way, then maybe we won't have such a meltdown.
Btw, there are other projects out there. I'm still waiting to see WS-19. I'm curious why so much upset over WS-10C on J-20, but no similar meltdown over J-35A using WS-21? I'm truly puzzled.