thunderchief
Senior Member
Re: Shenyang J-31 Fighter
Well, we actually don't have absence of evidence We have core tests in 2006 and prototype tests in 2014, with 8 years of pause between them . We have another circumstantial evidence and that is continuing import of Russian engines . All that tells me that China still has some catching up to do , and since original discussion was about supposed improved RD-93 engines on JF-17 and J-31 (far beyond specs Russians have achieved with their own improvements) I would say I'm still highly skeptical of that . Lacking further evidence, I don't think I would change my opinion and you won't change yours, so let's leave it at that , at least for a time being .
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Just because we have been spoiled with comprehensive leaks with some programs does not mean we should expect comprehensive leaks of all programs. This is especially the case with Chinese engines. You mention how much we now know about the Taihang, but the Taihang was pretty incognito for most of its development. Only when they were ready for production did we actually see the engine. (Of course ready for production should be put in quotes, because the program had hiccups after that point). If we follow the same pattern of leaks as the WS-10, we actually should not expect any visual confirmation of the WS-15 until the engine is on the tail end of testing and is being readied for production. If the rumour that they've only just built a complete prototype for testing, we should still not expect to see photos of the engine for another 3 to 5 years.
Well, we actually don't have absence of evidence We have core tests in 2006 and prototype tests in 2014, with 8 years of pause between them . We have another circumstantial evidence and that is continuing import of Russian engines . All that tells me that China still has some catching up to do , and since original discussion was about supposed improved RD-93 engines on JF-17 and J-31 (far beyond specs Russians have achieved with their own improvements) I would say I'm still highly skeptical of that . Lacking further evidence, I don't think I would change my opinion and you won't change yours, so let's leave it at that , at least for a time being .