Chinese Economics Thread
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From our friend HW before HR
While he may be overestimating the difficulty level of Western countries to tolerate China's stranglehold over industrial metals, it's also significantly hard than these experts doing copium on Bloomberg
The reality is that 80% recoverable gallium is found in China. It comes from processing alumina or zinc. China is the biggest end users of that and is the biggest producers of those metals also.
China can store whatever it does not need instead of trying to sell them. It's a small industry and China definitely will have no problem storing the excessive gallium.
Looks like the one hurt the most here is Japan. After that, probably America. That's why imo EU is feeling less alarmed about the situation. Also, it's unlikely imo that China will not grant license for EU companies.
Either way, downstream users in China need to capitalize on this opportunity.
The second largest importer of Gallium is Germany, followed by Netherlands.
D
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When do the Q2 growth numbers come out?
July 17.
China continues to be Russia’s top buyer of fossil fuels, with imports reaching $30 billion in 2023 up until June 16, 2023.
With nearly 80% of China’s fuel imports being , Russia’s average daily revenues from Chinese fossil fuel imports have declined from $210 million in 2022 to $178 million in 2023 largely due to the falling price of Russian crude oil.
Following China are EU nations collectively, which despite no longer importing coal from Russia since August of 2022, still imported $18.4 billion of fossil fuels in a 60/40 split of crude oil and natural gas respectively.
| Country | Russian Fossil Fuel Imports* (Total) | Crude Oil | Natural Gas | Coal | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | $30B | $23.9B | $2.7B | $3.3B | |||||||||
| EU | $18.4B | $11.2B | $7.2B | $0 | |||||||||
| India | $15.2B | $12.8B | $0 | $2.5B | |||||||||
| Türkiye | $12.1B | $7.3B | $3B | $1.7B | |||||||||
| UAE | $2.3B | $2.3B | $0 | $0 | |||||||||
| South Korea | $2.1B | $0.6B | $0.3B | $1.2B | |||||||||
| Slovakia | $2.0B | $1.1B | $0.9B | $0 | |||||||||
| Hungary | $1.9B | $0.8B | $1.1B | $0 | |||||||||
| Belgium | $1.9B | $0.5B | $1.4B | $0 | |||||||||
| Japan | $1.8B | $0 | $1.5B | $0.3B | |||||||||
| Spain | $1.7B | $0.6B | $1.1B | $0 | |||||||||
| Singapore | $1.7B | $1.7B | $0 | $0 | |||||||||
| Brazil | $1.6B | $1.4B | $0 | $0.2B | |||||||||
| Netherlands | $1.6B | $1.5B | $0.1B | $0 | |||||||||
| Saudi Arabia | $1.5B | $1.4B | $0 | $0 | |||||||||
| Egypt | $1.4B | $1.3B | $0 | $0.2B | |||||||||
| Bulgaria | $1.3B | $1.1B | $0.3B | $0 | |||||||||
| Italy | $1.2B | $0.8B | $0.4B | $0 | |||||||||
| Malaysia | $1.1B | $1.0B | $0 | $0.1B | |||||||||
| Czech Republic | $1.0B | $1.1B | $0 | $0 |
*Over the time period of Jan 1, 2023 to June 16, 2023 in U.S. dollars
After China and the EU bloc, India is the next-largest importer of Russian fossil fuels, having ramped up the amount of fossil fuels imported by more than 10x since before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, largely due to discounted Russian oil.
Türkiye is the only other nation to have imported more than $10 billion worth of Russian fossil fuels in 2023, with every other country having imported fewer than $3 billion worth of fuels from Russia this year.
While OPEC and OPEC+ nations’ cuts are an attempt at pushing crude oil prices up, increased production from the U.S. has counteracted this. The 2023 U.S. production to be 12.6 million bpd, surpassing the high in 2019 of 12.3 million bpd.
The US has also been reducing their crude oil Strategic Petroleum Reserve Stocks despite Washington rhetoric to replemish the stock and this has artificially depressed oil prices. Almost half the SPR has been drawn and will continue to suppress inflation until the next election.
This is why I do not believe western media and washington press release. Look at what they do and not what they say.
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