Chinese Economics Thread

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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
mossen said:
Chinese exports reached 29% YoY last year. Without significant Yuan appreciation, likely would have been closer to 40-45%.

The Yuan was undervalued until 2021, probably as a way to hedge the trade tariffs and to create leverage in any trade negotiation with the Americans. This year, the space to appreciate is lower but the energy shock is already behind us. I don't think we'll see oil going from $85 to $150 this year. So the Chinese leadership kept their currency undervalued until a "rainy day" and then used it with great timing. High-class management.
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Something is happening if China lowered interest rates but the Yuan continues to appreciate. Usually if the interest rates go down, so will the currency.

Something is also happening if the US is tanking its stock market but the US dollar continues to fall. Usually if the stock market goes down, people will buy into safe havens and boost the US dollar up.
 
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ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Tam said:
Something is happening if China lowered interest rates but the Yuan continues to appreciate. Usually if the interest rates go down, so will the currency.

Something is also happening if the US is tanking its stock market but the US dollar continues to fall. Usually if the stock market goes down, people will buy into safe havens and boost the US dollar up.
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@Tam meaning the Chinese are not buying T-Bills and the American Printer had runout of ink? from my perspective the inflation had hit the American family hard that no new money is coming in, the American middle class are forced to save and the billionaire class is running out of people to scam. The wealth generated is fake as no real value had been created.
 
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Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Tam said:
Something is happening if China lowered interest rates but the Yuan continues to appreciate. Usually if the interest rates go down, so will the currency.

Something is also happening if the US is tanking its stock market but the US dollar continues to fall. Usually if the stock market goes down, people will buy into safe havens and boost the US dollar up.
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Indeed. This is highly unusual.

China is now monetary easing and afaik utilising some fiscal stimulus. That the Yuan keeps appreciating is quite strange.

IMO if the FED raises rates and the Yuan keeps appreciating then something very serious (or wrong..) is going on
 
T

Tyler

Captain
Registered Member
ansy1968 said:
@Tam meaning the Chinese are not buying T-Bills and the American Printer had runout of ink? from my perspective the inflation had hit the American family hard that no new money is coming in, the American middle class are forced to save and the billionaire class is running out of people to scam. The wealth generated is fake as no real value had been created.
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China is now hiking the rmb by a few percent per year, thereby sending inflation to the yankees.
 
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