I heavily doubt democrats will lose second term, even with everything that has happened. If trump was really to come back at 2024, he would have never lost 2020.
GOP right now is almost like india's BJP. It doesn't have a second face. Right wingers likes trump because of his posturing. Who is going to replace him? Pence? Pompeo.
They are wayy down the road even in choice list of right wingers. They like someone with strong posturing ,like trump kneeing out another world leader in international forum. Mike the "yes man" pence or mike the "fatso" pompeo simply doesn't fit that bill.
If you look at tech and finance as well as FOREX, here is what I think will happen:
1. In 4 years, China will be a automated driving (level 4) 5G juggernaut. Also by 2025, China might have cracked the 3nm semiconductor nut.
2. Software dev and finance will flock to China, especially in the next 24 months as EU and US recover from COVID-19.
3. China is also issuing gov 10 year T-bonds at 3.298 yield compare to 0.98 for US 10 year bonds. Between PRC T-bills and digital Yuan (DCEP), the next 2 years will see RMB rise from 225 to perhaps 30% of international trade settlement, conservatively. I think it could be as high as 40%.
4. If you put 1-3 together, you can clearly see the declining purchasing power of the dollar in progress. This will lead to increasing anxiety of not only the blue collar but also white collar Americans.
5. Toss in some inflation, and it would not be hard to predict increasing hostility to immigrants and elites.
So, while it will not be a hard crash that would be stoked by another 4 years of Trump, it will be a precipitous decline.
The only way Biden can reverse this trend is a comprehensive restructuring of the US industrial policy and by extension political architecture.
Recent, elections have shown the disproportional institutional imbalance towards rural voters. This is enabled by the existence of the Senate, which perpetuates labor and resource inefficiencies by sustaining marginal employment through subsidies and policies where they should not exist. Hence, there is no clustering in American compare to China where all 70% of all the worlds lighting or where 90% of all the buttons are made.
US national public education system also perpetuates inefficiencies and unlikely to catch up.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So....... absent drastic change, US will be increasingly uncompetitive vis a vis China. And these last 4 year have laid down the decline of US tech industry.
By 2024, the situation would be much worse than it is today. US fiscal outlook are being hammered by COVID-19. The urban centers such as NYC will under go radical revision based on lack of revenue and policing policy frictions.
No, 2024 is far from an assured Democratic victory.
, The grudge he hold against China is due to this. He had gain more votes especially from Hispanic and had solidify his grip on his base. Overall a good election outcome if you count the gain the Republican had on the congressional and senatorial seats. Now he is a king maker and all ambitious Republican politician need to kowtow to him. He can control the agenda and future direction of the Republican party, that's what make him more dangerous. Trumpism is here to stay and I wish the American is smart enough to know the danger they face.