Chinese Economics Thread

steel21

Junior Member
Registered Member
Should they join the TPP as well?
Well, if the same countries are part of both trade pacts, then there is no effective containment of China.
Another way to look at it, China would then backdoor into TPP via RCEP.

So it would be a whole lot of paperwork for nothing.

Additionally, the original TPP was going to establish a court of arbitration in New York. With diminished trade volumes, how can the United States reinstate TPP with the same terms?

If you go by McKinsey's number and projections,
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(page ~51+), it looks like China is on a A2 glide path (if not better), while US is on B2. With that trend line, China will capture all the world s FDI for 2-3 years, which will significantly power its innovation for the next decade. By contrast, US has little to offer its trade partners. The world has changed dramatically since 2016.

A2 COVID.PNG


B2 COVID.PNG
 

NiuBiDaRen

Brigadier
Registered Member
Well, if the same countries are part of both trade pacts, then there is no effective containment of China.
Another way to look at it, China would then backdoor into TPP via RCEP.

So it would be a whole lot of paperwork for nothing.

Additionally, the original TPP was going to establish a court of arbitration in New York. With diminished trade volumes, how can the United States reinstate TPP with the same terms?

If you go by McKinsey's number and projections,
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(page ~51+), it looks like China is on a A2 glide path (if not better), while US is on B2. With that trend line, China will capture all the world s FDI for 2-3 years, which will significantly power its innovation for the next decade. By contrast, US has little to offer its trade partners. The world has changed dramatically since 2016.

View attachment 65438


View attachment 65439
Just think about how many 25 year old McKinsey consulting associates worked 11pm nights to produce that report, only to have all their useful information ignored by governments around the world
 

steel21

Junior Member
Registered Member
Just think about how many 25 year old McKinsey consulting associates worked 11pm nights to produce that report, only to have all their useful information ignored by governments around the world
I think the biggest hole in their analysis is the assumption that the whole world will endure through the same trajectory.

Unless I missed it in the graphics, there was no provision given for regional containment and recovery.9 trajectories.PNG
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Yes, the shadow economy. But to be fair. Most country got them too.

For a while now, China's shadow economy is under siege due to mobile payments, Alipay and WeChat. The shadow economy can get another blow with digital currency.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
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They can't look for other markets to replace China. They want that market and China's too. That's how greedy people think. Do not think they can turn their backs and isolate China like they tease when they can only see money. Yeah I know, they don't want to be portrayed as greedy. "They're about human rights too." No human rights is a cover to deflect from things like they look greedy salivating for money. Look at Canada where Trudeau has already contacted Biden to help in getting their citizens released from China and also wanted Biden to force China to buy their canola products again. China is a human rights violator but they still want to do business with China. If human rights were important, canola would not be. Time to isolate China yet they still want China to buy their barley and canola. Which one is more important? Isolating China for its human rights violations or making sure China still buys their products? Their greed is more important. That's their punishment. China has to still buy from them.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
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How you gonna get inflation when your currency is worth almost 8% more than its recent highs.

Where does the 8% come from? I would think the RMB is worth a lot more than being undervalued by 8% only. Always a double edged sword. The Americans want China to stop undervaluing their currency but can they also cope with a China that's truly representative of China's real economic size and influence?
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
Where does the 8% come from? I would think the RMB is worth a lot more than being undervalued by 8% only. Always a double edged sword. The Americans want China to stop undervaluing their currency but can they also cope with a China that's truly representative of China's real economic size and influence?

Idk I've never been a fan of inflation. 0% inflation should be the goal. Chinese are probably saving cash right now. They can't spend overseas and imports have been dropping.

I was talking to some taiwanese today, he said he earns $20/hr here and a mainland worker can't even earn $20/week.

I laughed my ass off XD.
 
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bajingan

Senior Member
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australia is about to feel real pain, a fifth of of its export goes to China and as an export market for Chinese businesses, australia is almost irrelevant, accounting for just 1.9% of their worldwide sales.
Labor politicians has been for years screaming diversify! diversify! These fools has finally realize that there are no other markets other than China lol for example all of australian lobsters are sold to China

According to this article australia sold 100% of iron ore to China and it supplies about 70% of China’s iron ore imports and its big eastern steel mills couldn’t operate without them, i wonder if this is true? To be so dependent to an enemy state for important commodity is not wise, does China has a plan to replace australian iron ore imports? I guess african ores will be a good subtitute

This article also mention that australia is willing to suffer like cuba did enduring 60 years of embargo to stand up to its "values" lol
I would say that China should grant their wish, let these people be the poor white trash of asia
 
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