Chinese Economics Thread

[Deleted member 15887]

I'm sorry. I seem too negative at times. I simply strongly think China should put more effort into seeking better relations with the West and understanding perceptions of it abroad. I don't understand why it has to pick one fight after another all the time. Yes, China is a big country but it's just one country. 84% of the world population is outside China and that share will only grow as China's birthrate plummets. Having good relations with other countries in this globalized world is important, and as Xi Jinping said, the trend of globalization can't be reversed. Politics is at the root of all this. It's a too way street. Just as the world should better understand China, China should better understand the world.

You're very same article acknowledges that these efforts have not been successful so far. Sure, new factories have popped up in SEA, but the article notes, the supply chain in SEA is small-scale, fragmented, and overall inefficient and uncompetitive. China's supply chain blows SEA's out of the water, and companies know this deep down if they want to remain competitive. And remember, the US is not the only consumer in the world; and when China's economy becomes the world's biggest in the coming decade, the willingness of multinationals to shift out of China loses a ton of luster and appeal, especially of the US becomes more and more of a marginal market. Fundamentally, companies know having decentralized, splintered, fragmented, smaller-scale supply chains are fundamentally less competitive and efficient compared to the current setup of a single, centralized, massive-scaled supply chain in China. Sure, US multinationals can leave; then they can be at a fundamental comparative disadvantage compared to the European and Japanese firms taking their vacated place in China's manufacturing ecosystem. Let alone local Chinese competitors. See whats happening to Luxshare vs Foxconn?

As for Xi's foreign policy, I also agree Xi should be less aggressive. But the US backlash against China's growth was growing even before Xi became president. IT was only a matter of time before the US got more and more aggressive against China. Don't delude yourself that the old happy days of Jiang Zemin could prevail forever.

 

[RavenClaws]

I'm sorry. I seem too negative at times. I simply strongly think China should put more effort into seeking better relations with the West and understanding perceptions of it abroad. I don't understand why it has to pick one fight after another all the time. Yes, China is a big country but it's just one country. 84% of the world population is outside China and that share will only grow as China's birthrate plummets. Having good relations with other countries in this globalized world is important, and as Xi Jinping said, the trend of globalization can't be reversed. Politics is at the root of all this. It's a too way street. Just as the world should better understand China, China should better understand the world.

You're right, China should just let others sanction its companies, blockage its trade, sabotage economics and technological developments, threaten regularly to bomb or blow up their cities and infrastructure (Three Gorges Dam), actively funds terrorists and seperatists inside its borders while salami slicing its disputed territory, and all the while engaging in massive propaganda info wars style against anything it does, while doing absolutely nothing, "please daddy give it to me more".

/s

China isn't the one that has crippled the WTO, WHO and other international institutions, it isn't the one that actually wants to destroy the current world order. It's the mafia boss that has set up that same globalized world orders, wrote its rules and then suddenly decided to flip the whole table the instant it realizes that it may actually have to play under those same rules, and not win all the time.

If you still can't see it, China has actually been the relatively restrained party, because it has no problem keeping the current world order if it accommodates to China. It took a couple of years before China woke up and realized that America lost its mind and hardened up.

What you're doing is blaming the victim for getting robbed. At this point, either you're an useful idiot or an malicious actor.

The West doesn't even realize what it has done. The 1980s generation was the most anti-communist, pro-liberal, pro-foreign ideas generation China will ever have. They squandered that and are on the track to provoke China into a irrevocable enemy for generations, just because they are afraid to compete.

 

[Gatekeeper]

Posted before.
Does posting it twice make it more "disastrous"?

This is what happens when you sell doom and gloom. You tend to repeat yourself enough times to convince yourself it's going to happen.

 

[Gatekeeper]

I'm sorry. I seem too negative at times. I simply strongly think China should put more effort into seeking better relations with the West and understanding perceptions of it abroad. I don't understand why it has to pick one fight after another all the time. Yes, China is a big country but it's just one country. 84% of the world population is outside China and that share will only grow as China's birthrate plummets. Having good relations with other countries in this globalized world is important, and as Xi Jinping said, the trend of globalization can't be reversed. Politics is at the root of all this. It's a too way street. Just as the world should better understand China, China should better understand the world.

It's not the negative part from you that's plain wrong and annoying. It is the fact that you repeat the often MSM line of China is the aggressor and always picking fights with the west.

Nothing can be further from the truth. Look deep down, and you should see who's actually picking the fight. Who's actually doing the bullying. But you stubbornly refuses to believe that because of your own bias outlook on China and the world.

 

[SPOOPYSKELETON]

I simply strongly think China should put more effort into seeking better relations with the West and understanding perceptions of it abroad. I don't understand why it has to pick one fight after another all the time. Yes, China is a big country but it's just one country. 84% of the world population is outside China and that share will only grow as China's birthrate plummets. Having good relations with other countries in this globalized world is important, and as Xi Jinping said, the trend of globalization can't be reversed. Politics is at the root of all this. It's a too way street. Just as the world should better understand China, China should better understand the world.

The United States does not seek an EQUAL relationship with China, just like it does not seek an equal relationship with Russia, Iran, Syria, or any other country that asserts its independence from the global American owned world order. Normalizing relationships while maintaining China's sovereignty is impossible under current American leadership.

The United State's evangelical foreign policy springs from the natural religiosity of its people and was formalized by Wilson. But given the obvious disasters of democratization in Russia and the Middle East, and the fact that "democracy" is used to facilitate the rapacious exploitation of Latin America by AMERICAN corporations, surrendering to democratization, to America's vision for China is surrendering to American capitalism.

Which is, for anyone other than the top 1% of American society, a shit deal.

Just look at what happens to US backed "democracies" in Latin America. This is the future you and the American establishment want for the world. Its disgusting!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1313994066393063424

 

[BrightFuture]

China losing its electronics supply chains. Disaster...

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TAIPEI --- It was a hot summer morning in Taipei when several officials from the American Institute in Taiwan, the de facto U.S. embassy, visited the top management of a major tech company, a key supplier to Apple.

It was immediately apparent that this was unlike previous courtesy visits, where U.S. officials stop in from time to time to hear what's happening in the industry. This time, they cut the chitchat and threw out a blunt question soon after they sat down: "Why aren't you moving more of your production capacity outside of China?" they asked. "Why aren't you moving faster?"

Participants described the conversation as "serious and unsettling." "We felt uneasy," said one. "They asked many questions that we didn't know if we could answer. The answers would have involved unreported strategies about ourselves and our clients." But the message was unambiguous: The U.S. government was directly appealing to his company to cut its ties to China, he said.

"I think a lot of supply chain movement in tech products has been set in motion, and it has momentum that will be hard to change."

So, China is crumbling again, huh? This is what time again? The 56646746 gorillion time China has been on the brink of collapse? I don't know, might ask Gordon Chang later.

 

[gelgoog]

...
It's more like economic rather than politics, remember the US is strongly against Nord Stream 2 and ready to use sanction to stop it. The importance of Nord Stream 2 is to cut extra cost in subsidizing Ukraine (transit cost) and extra supply of cheap gas.

Russia has to pay Ukraine billions each year to transit gas across their pipelines. While the costs are borne out by the final customer, the EU, this money is used by Ukraine to fund its military activities, pay its oligarchs, and foreign US masters. So Russia is funding an adversary with its own gas. The same thing happens with Poland with the Yamal pipeline. That's why Poland is so dead set against Nord Stream 2. If Russia has a direct pipe into Germany without having to pay for these US sycophant leeches along the way not only can Russia extract more profits from gas sales but they also stop funding threats on their border. Final gas clients in Western Europe benefit from lower prices as well.

The "alternative" Poland is proposing to Nord Stream 2 is the Baltic Pipe project which basically taps off a pipeline that goes from Norway to Germany. So not only are they not increasing gas coming into the EU they are siphoning gas off Germany as well. At a time Norway is decreasing natural gas production because their gas wells are running dry. Russia is the only major player close to Europe which has had a major expansion in gas supply so the rest is bunk and shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic.

 

[gelgoog]

Well as I said before China try to remedy the Melacca straits vulnerability by building pipeline to Russia still small percentage but it will grow over time

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Energy Deals Are Creating A Powerful Alliance Between China And Russia
...
The agreement was struck during the height of tensions between Moscow and the West, when Russia was desperate to show its geopolitical independence in the face of western obstruction. The gas pipeline started operating this year and is expected to transport

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annually to China, earning Russia $400 billion over three decades.

The importance of China to the Russian economy and the ruling elite’s political future cannot be underestimated. At the same time, while China’s growing technological prowess is bringing it into the western sphere, it will remain heavily reliant on Russia's energy and mineral wealth for decades to power its industries.

It is going to be more than 38 bcm. Alexey Miller, the Gazprom chairman, already said they pressure tested the pipeline and are in talks with the Chinese side so they can increase the output of the Power of Siberia 1 pipeline eventually to 44 bcm. Basically they can operate the pipeline slightly over the design pressure to increase supply once current capacity is tapped out. They already did this in Nordstream 1.

They are also in the planning stages of the Power of Siberia 2 mentioned in the article which would basically connect the Yamal gas field, which is where the major natural gas reserves in Russia are located, to Northeastern China. Basically it would connect Yamal to Beijing via Mongolia on a direct route. This would enable the Russians to shift gas they currently either have to export by LNG tanker across the Arctic directly to China via pipeline. It would also enable the Russians to shift gas from Europe to China or vice-versa depending on customer requirements. So if Europe stops buying more gas they can still export it to China which is still mostly powered by coal and has huge potential for natural gas growth in particular in that region. In the South of China some of the power also comes from hydropower and most of the nuclear power plants are located there plus with the milder climate there is less concern for natural gas for heating purposes in the winter.

 

[Gatekeeper]

Russia has to pay Ukraine billions each year to transit gas across their pipelines. While the costs are borne out by the final customer, the EU, this money is used by Ukraine to fund its military activities, pay its oligarchs, and foreign masters. So Russia is funding an adversary with its own gas. The same thing happens with Poland with the Yamal pipeline. That's why Poland is so dead set against Nord Stream 2. If Russia has a direct pipe into Germany without having to pay for these US sycophant leeches along the way not only can Russia extract more profits from gas sales but they also stop funding threats on their border. Final gas clients in Western Europe benefit from lower prices as well.

Not only Russia has to pay for the transit cost to Ukraine, but the Ukrainians were also stealing gas, and refuses to pay for them.

 

[SPOOPYSKELETON]

I think the one divide between pro West and pro China ppl here is whether you believe in the American narrative or not. Given two sides of the story, which one do you pick more often? The Americans, or the Chinese? If you accept the American narrative at face value, then all your political stances follow from that. Whereas if you accept the Chinese narrative, it could be just because you have a distrust of what Americans say. Perhaps that distrust comes from some other conflict.

Putting that aside, not even the American narrative about its own economic success is true. They have always used generous government spending, military force, covert and overt espionage, and coercion through multilateral institutions to get what they want. There is no reason to buy the PR from a nation of salesmen. Excellent salesmen, very good at what they do, but salesmen nevertheless.

That is to say, if you think Trump isn't the most American American in the world, then I don't trust your takes on anything.