Chinese Economics Thread

[tphuang]

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恒力石化：一季度净利同比增长91% 受益于核心原材料原油价格下跌以及下游PTA和新材料价格同比上涨】财联社4月21日电，恒力石化(600346.SH)公告称，2026年第一季度实现营业收入491.91亿元，同比下降13.74%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为39.10亿元，同比增长90.65%。受益于公司核心原材料原油价格的下跌以及下游PTA和下游新材料价格的同比上涨，使得公司利润同比大幅上升。小财注：公司Q1净利润39.1亿，2025年Q4净利润20.52亿，据此计算，Q1净利润环比增长90%

Very interesting here. Hengli says its profit is up 90% QoQ due to lower crude oil prices and higher downstream PTA and other new material prices. It seems like at least in March, the crude input cost for Chinese petrochem industry was still okay. I would expect this to be a problem going forward though.

 

[tphuang]

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【紫金矿业：第一季度净利润同比增长97.50% 主营金属品种量价齐升】财联社4月21日电，紫金矿业(601899.SH)公告称，2026年第一季度实现营业收入984.98亿元，同比增长24.79%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为200.79亿元，同比增长97.50%。业绩变动主要系公司持续优化生产组织与运营管理，坚持尽产尽销，矿产金、碳酸锂产量同比增长，矿产铜产量受卡莫阿-卡库拉权益铜产量下滑影响同比有所下降；公司主营金属品种价格同比上涨，价格红利充分释放，推动经营业绩显著提升。同时，公司预计2026年当量碳酸锂产量12万吨，并规划至2028年提升至27-32万吨，届时将成为全球最大的锂矿生产商之一。

Fijian Mining expects to produce 120k ton of Lithium Carbonate in 2026 & increase this to 270 to 320k ton per 2028. It also expects increases in gold but drop in copper due to 卡莫阿-卡库拉 mine (largest copper mine in Africa) dropping in production.

 

[tphuang]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2046736490269430227

Since China imposed export control on Silver, it has now become a net importer of silver while US is a huge net exporter. Big change over the past few years.

 

[Wrought]

It seems that BHP finally reached a pricing deal with CMRG through the end of 2027, the details of which have not been disclosed. If prior deals with Fortescue and Rio Tinto are anything to go by, it probably involves benchmark index and/or settlement currency changes (which would align with previous rumours about the negotiations).

CANBERRA -- Australia's BHP, the world's largest listed miner, has reached a deal on iron ore supplies to China Mineral Resources Group, ending a monthslong standoff seen as part of a broader push by Beijing to exert more leverage over the price of the key steelmaking ingredient.

Nikkei understands the agreement extends to the end of fiscal 2027, which comes in June of next year. BHP has remained tightlipped on details of the tense negotiations, including any concessions granted. A note in its operational review, released on Wednesday, said only, "We have concluded iron ore sales contract negotiations with the China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG)."

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[sunnymaxi]

China's food and beverage industry rapidly expanding worldwide.​

Mixue Group posts record growth for 2025 on expanded store footprint​

Revenue rose 35.2 percent to 33.56 billion yuan ($4.91 billion), while net profit increased 33.1 percent to 5.93 billion yuan, the company said. Its global store count climbed to nearly 60,000 by year-end, up from 46,000 a year earlier.

As of Dec 31, Mixue Group operated 55,356 stores on the Chinese mainland, spanning 31 provincial regions and more than 300 cities. Lower-tier markets remained a key growth engine, with about 58 percent of outlets located in tier-3 cities and below.

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Chagee has modest growth in 2025 but store count keep on rise in 2025.

Chagee reported a 4% increase in full-year 2025 net revenue to RMB 12.91 billion (approx. US$ 1.85 billion). The tea brand grew its network to 7,453 locations by year-end 2025, driven by significant expansion in international markets, where overseas GMV increased by 84.6% year-over-year

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[Wrought]

It seems that BHP finally reached a pricing deal with CMRG through the end of 2027, the details of which have not been disclosed. If prior deals with Fortescue and Rio Tinto are anything to go by, it probably involves benchmark index and/or settlement currency changes (which would align with previous rumours about the negotiations).

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Quick followup from yesterday, with confirmation from Caixin that BHP is switching over to a yuan benchmark.

BHP Group has agreed to use a yuan-denominated spot index to price part of its iron ore sales to China’s state-backed centralized buyer, marking a shift that could reshape global commodity pricing. The supply contract with China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) advances Beijing’s push to strengthen its pricing power over key raw materials and challenges the dominance of U.S. dollar-based Western benchmarks.

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[supercat]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2046996429906866418

 

[tphuang]

Quick followup from yesterday, with confirmation from Caixin that BHP is switching over to a yuan benchmark.

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Analysis here of the deal. CMRG crushed BHP at the end

一．价格

对于长协价格，必和必拓最初给的报价是109.5美元/湿吨，最终敲定的是80-90美元区间，回归全球现货市场价。这为我国节省数十亿美元的采购成本。此举，意味着未来铁矿石的长协价将锚定现货市场，对我国是极大利好。

此外，必和必拓还给中矿集团1.8%的专属大客户折扣，叠加船型、海运费优惠，综合实际降价幅度2%-3%。不要小看这两三个百分点，乘以每年上亿吨的采购量，则是巨大的数字额。

二．结算

现货交易全面支持人民币结算，长期合同逐步提高人民币占比。此前，必和必拓对华铁矿石贸易的人民币结算比例约30%。本次长协合同突破了该上限，至于是多少比例暂未公开，一说提升至50%以上（注：福德士河FMG的人民币结算比例即50%）。

扩大人民币结算比例，可为我国钢铁行业每年减少上百亿元的汇率损失。同时，还能降低我国钢企的在贸易中对美元依赖与汇率风险，更能推动人民币在全球大宗商品贸易中的国际化进程。

三．定价

必和必拓首次同意将北京铁矿石交易中心人民币港口现货指数（北铁指数）、Mysteel等中国本土指数纳入长协定价体系，其中金布巴粉的中国指数权重超50%。此前，中国钢厂报价权重不足10%且基本不被采纳。

此举，形成美元指数与中国人民币现货指数“双基准定价模式”，使中国市场的真实供需关系能直接反映在价格中，终结了普氏指数（Platts）的垄断地位。

 

[supercat]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2047514348185104830

 

[Michael90]

Revenue rose 35.2 percent to 33.56 billion yuan ($4.91 billion

There must be a mistake . Their revenue for the entire year was just $5billion? I’m not sure this should be right . Afterall they have even more stores than McDonald’s (who generated over $26billion).