Chinese Economics Thread

[Nevermore]

Collapse in births this year(2025), I am really astonished what has happened in 2025, every year I am thinking it won't come much lower but every year it is. I thought this year we will see 8.5m which is really low but we have only 7.92m, last year it was 9.54m. TFR most likely felt below 1.0. We're going South Korea and Taiwan province direction. Now no reason for restraints and conservatives policy. Huge subsidies are needed now no later to try to change anything in birth rate.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

As I've consistently warned on forums, there's no reason to be optimistic about China's birth rate in recent years. During its rapid development, China accumulated far too many complex social issues—many of which cannot be resolved simply by handing out money, let alone with the minimal subsidies currently available. Therefore, China will inevitably need to significantly increase birth subsidies and reduce working hours in the coming years. The initial effects of these policies won't be felt until at least 2030.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The latest data for 2025, reasons why current fertility rate data may not be particularly crucial:

Birth population: 7.92 million people; Death population: 11.31 million people. (Birth population decreased by 1.68 million people compared to the previous year)
At year-end, the national population was 1.40489 billion people, a decrease of 3.39 million people compared to the previous year-end;
However, the urban permanent resident population was 953.8 million people, an increase of 10.30 million people compared to the previous year-end; the rural permanent resident population was 451.1 million people, a decrease of 13.69 million people;
Considering that the economic value of rural population is relatively low (probably), their labor productivity is relatively low, and they can be more easily replaced by intelligent agricultural machinery, so actually this fertility rate may still be acceptable?
Additionally, the marriage rate in 2025 is higher than in 2024 (annual data doesn't seem to be available yet, using the first half of the year for estimation).
Furthermore, at the end of 2024, the urban permanent resident population was 943.50 million people, an increase of 10.83 million people compared to the previous year-end; the rural permanent resident population was 464.78 million people, a decrease of 12.22 million people. Since the reduction in the increase of urban permanent resident population is not too significant, it may still be acceptable?

The halving of the next generation's population will indeed have limited impact on China. Concentrated urban areas can still function with their remaining young people. But what about thirty years from now? With another 50% decline in the youth population three decades later, this system will clearly be unable to sustain itself.

 

[Iracundus]

Open up immigration to diaspora. Conduct more assertive social engineering to promote having children, such as socially as well as financially elevating those that have families over those that remain single. Obviously have windows of time before imposing any penalties and taxes, and give leeway for people that may have medical issues.

 

[tphuang]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

First delivery of Simandou iron ore has arrived in Baosteel's 迹山港 port. This took 46 days to go from mine all the way to the river port that serves Baosteel.

 

[PopularScience]

Open up immigration to diaspora. Conduct more assertive social engineering to promote having children, such as socially as well as financially elevating those that have families over those that remain single. Obviously have windows of time before imposing any penalties and taxes, and give leeway for people that may have medical issues.

Yes. Especially South East Asia.

 

[supercat]

2025 growth came in on target.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Here is the archived version:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China's per capita disposable income also grew 5% and this is the first time China's GDP broke the $20 trillion mark.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013084011472515168

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013074627229036788

 

[Wrought]

New BRI projects rose 75% to a record $213 billion last year, driven by investments in energy and minerals.

China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative gained further traction in 2025, with a record US$213.5 billion of new deals signed as projects in metals, mining, fossil fuels and new technologies surged, a report by the Griffith Asia Institute has found. The value of new deals confirmed under China’s global infrastructure strategy rose 75 per cent last year compared with 2024, with a notable pivot towards investment in Africa and Central Asia, according to the report released on Sunday. China has now logged a cumulative US$1.4 trillion of investment and construction contracts with 150 countries under the Belt and Road Initiative since its launch in 2013, the research institute under the Australia-based Griffith University said.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

 

[supercat]

China’s container port throughput overtook the combined total of developed countries (OECD countries) in 2023. That's why China's ports are highly automated.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013130280677040269

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2013008497747853374

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Collapse in births this year(2025), I am really astonished what has happened in 2025, every year I am thinking it won't come much lower but every year it is. I thought this year we will see 8.5m which is really low but we have only 7.92m, last year it was 9.54m. TFR most likely felt below 1.0. We're going South Korea and Taiwan province direction. Now no reason for restraints and conservatives policy. Huge subsidies are needed now no later to try to change anything in birth rate.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Birth rate will not improve without massive policy changes from the government including massive tax increase on the childless followed by tax benefit for parents.

Essentially the government need to make childless life into a financial black hole that forces people to change their priorities. Right now the priority for young people is their career and make more money. They do not care about having more children. The government will essentially have to make that kind of childless career oriented life pointless. They need to make it so that high focus on career leads to no actual improvement in income and loss of promotion opportunities. Essentially, no children, no promotion.

Once China can make that kind of change, I think the birth rate will improve. This kind of change will be extremely painful and unpopular. And will likely lead to some Chinese migrating out of the country. But over time this will lead to birth rate rising and prevention of population collapse.

Let's see if the CCP has the guts to make such painful changes that western govts failed to do.

 

[FKAMtS4kE]

There are no Chinese speaking countries or minorities anywhere in the world with an above replacement TFR. Solving this is likely impossible.

 

[proelite]

There are no Chinese speaking countries or minorities anywhere in the world with an above replacement TFR. Solving this is likely impossible.

There are no Chinese speak countries with government as powerful as China's or scale as big as China's.