Chinese Economics Thread

[Nevermore]

Collapse in births this year(2025), I am really astonished what has happened in 2025, every year I am thinking it won't come much lower but every year it is. I thought this year we will see 8.5m which is really low but we have only 7.92m, last year it was 9.54m. TFR most likely felt below 1.0. We're going South Korea and Taiwan province direction. Now no reason for restraints and conservatives policy. Huge subsidies are needed now no later to try to change anything in birth rate.

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As I've consistently warned on forums, there's no reason to be optimistic about China's birth rate in recent years. During its rapid development, China accumulated far too many complex social issues—many of which cannot be resolved simply by handing out money, let alone with the minimal subsidies currently available. Therefore, China will inevitably need to significantly increase birth subsidies and reduce working hours in the coming years. The initial effects of these policies won't be felt until at least 2030.

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The latest data for 2025, reasons why current fertility rate data may not be particularly crucial:

Birth population: 7.92 million people; Death population: 11.31 million people. (Birth population decreased by 1.68 million people compared to the previous year)
At year-end, the national population was 1.40489 billion people, a decrease of 3.39 million people compared to the previous year-end;
However, the urban permanent resident population was 953.8 million people, an increase of 10.30 million people compared to the previous year-end; the rural permanent resident population was 451.1 million people, a decrease of 13.69 million people;
Considering that the economic value of rural population is relatively low (probably), their labor productivity is relatively low, and they can be more easily replaced by intelligent agricultural machinery, so actually this fertility rate may still be acceptable?
Additionally, the marriage rate in 2025 is higher than in 2024 (annual data doesn't seem to be available yet, using the first half of the year for estimation).
Furthermore, at the end of 2024, the urban permanent resident population was 943.50 million people, an increase of 10.83 million people compared to the previous year-end; the rural permanent resident population was 464.78 million people, a decrease of 12.22 million people. Since the reduction in the increase of urban permanent resident population is not too significant, it may still be acceptable?

The halving of the next generation's population will indeed have limited impact on China. Concentrated urban areas can still function with their remaining young people. But what about thirty years from now? With another 50% decline in the youth population three decades later, this system will clearly be unable to sustain itself.

 

[Iracundus]

Open up immigration to diaspora. Conduct more assertive social engineering to promote having children, such as socially as well as financially elevating those that have families over those that remain single. Obviously have windows of time before imposing any penalties and taxes, and give leeway for people that may have medical issues.

 

[tphuang]

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First delivery of Simandou iron ore has arrived in Baosteel's 迹山港 port. This took 46 days to go from mine all the way to the river port that serves Baosteel.

 

[PopularScience]

Open up immigration to diaspora. Conduct more assertive social engineering to promote having children, such as socially as well as financially elevating those that have families over those that remain single. Obviously have windows of time before imposing any penalties and taxes, and give leeway for people that may have medical issues.

Yes. Especially South East Asia.