Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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Automation, the only way to upgrade your manufacturing and increase productivity is putting more robots and AI in the factory floor.
Posting here cause demographics thread is locked
Interesting comparison between different regions for TFR in China 2024 and 2023
Interesting comparison between different regions for TFR in China 2024 and 2023
Last year was buoyed by pandemic restrictions lifting and dragon year, so most provinces will go back to the 2023 level this year.
I don't want to also derail this thread to talk about demographics too in depth again, but there is this interesting case study in Tianmen county, Hubei where the TFR has risen from 1.33 in 2022 to near replacement levels of 1.88 in 2025. In fact, the county is bucking the trend of 2025 births dropping vs 2024 as the number of births has increased by 3.4% this year. This is mainly because there are absolutely massive birth subsidies in place in that town ($13.5k USD for 2nd child and $23k for 3rd) vs GDP per capita of the county being $9k USD. It has also been featured in Chinese state media so some officials outside of Tianmen are definitely aware of this.
The Tianmen example could be used in other counties, and you could conclude that giving a really huge sum of money (relative to average wages) actually does meaningfully spur births if the amount is big enough. This policy is the most effective in these smaller county level towns where the average income is much lower compared to tier 1/2 cities.
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Agree. Maybe they are worried printing more money/loosen monetary policy can encourage excessive risk-taking and speculation, leading to asset price bubbles like in real estate(which is already in a bad enough shape already and has not recovered yet). So I understand some of their misgivings.
Tier 1 & tier 2 cities will forever be population sinks as large cities have been throughout history. The key will be to encourage more people to move to suburban areas to raise families instead of squeezing them into metropolises. China can do this much better than Japan or South Korea due to availability of land so it should be a policy priority (improve health care, public services, jobs decentralization).
I guess Xi jinping and his advisors despite all the data and information they have of China are still making the wrong decisions then? lol. So you mean they are wrong in calling for these companies to stop this rat race bottom to the ground right ? Seems to me like even if Xi jinping himself and all the best economist in China were to openly say how bad deflation and this disorderly competition is to Chin on the long term , many on here will still dispute it. lol
People here don’t always have to try and make everything about China to be right even when it’s not. No country is with it issues or problems. The main worry is when people don’t want to recognize even when there is a problem and choose to ignore them or justify them by all means. I say again: NO COUNTRY IS WITHOUT HER OWN ISSUES AND PROBLEMS , be it China the US, Europe, Japan, S. Korea, Indonesia, Russia etc etc . All of them have good and bad issues facing their economy. So it’s not like it’s unique to one country. No big deal there
Only difference is how effectively the government recognizes and solves it . Just like Xi and his government are trying to do now with this cycle of never ending price wars and deflation issue.
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Them taking corrective actions doesn't mean they are panicked or the economy is in a bad shape. If they decided that the things are going into to an undesirable territory they will act. This is exactly how a government should work. There are no ways they didn't know it would crater the inflation while they were diverting the money from real estate to the industry. I know this because the same Xi Jinping also said "what's so bad about deflation" earlier. Government is managing the economy to according to their plans by manipulating the variables. This is apparently hard for Western journalists to grasp because they are used to seeing their govt do nothing until a crisis happens.