Chinese Economics Thread

[tphuang]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1919030818942427245

I wrote here about the story of XCMG whose products are selling all over the world with 45% of revenue coming from overseas market, especially in rest of Asia. And it is winning because it's electrical products and heavy machineries are both more efficient and reliable than traditional mechanical equipments.

 

[Sinnavuuty]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1919030818942427245

I wrote here about the story of XCMG whose products are selling all over the world with 45% of revenue coming from overseas market, especially in rest of Asia. And it is winning because it's electrical products and heavy machineries are both more efficient and reliable than traditional mechanical equipments.

Do you have any articles about the rise of Chinese multinationals? I believe it will be a more relevant topic in the future.

 

[tphuang]

Do you have any articles about the rise of Chinese multinationals? I believe it will be a more relevant topic in the future.

I wrote up several long threads about it on twitter. You are going to have to be more specific. If you look over my substack, you will see several entry recently on this also.

 

[Wrought]

I don't like relying on the gig economy to create jobs, but I guess it's better than unemployment.

The party is turning to the gig economy because it is vast: the state-controlled trade-union federation estimates there are 84m people relying on “new forms of employment”, including delivery services and ride-hailing. The government cites a broader category of 200m “flexible workers”, including the self-employed and part-time workers. Both figures far exceed the 54m jobs at state-owned enterprises in cities, and make up a big chunk of the 734m-strong workforce. One delivery firm, Meituan, uses 7.5m couriers who get paid $11bn a year. Drivers often describe their taxing work as guodu, a transitional job “to ferry over a stream”.

Even more helpfully for the party, an epic struggle for market share between rival firms means a hiring war is being unleashed amid the trade war. On April 21st

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, an e-commerce firm that is entering the delivery business, said it would take on 100,000 new riders by the end of July. The combination of price cuts for consumers and more labour costs has spooked investors who have sent share prices tumbling. But more jobs, low prices and low margins are exactly what the party wants.

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[FriedRiceNSpice]

You don’t understand. I’m not taking about spending money on useless crap but being able to afford housing, food, transportation. And not being saddled with debt. That reduces stress by a lot.

Though ironically, despite much higher GDP per capita, not being afford to basic necessities and worrying about doubt is far more prevalent in the US than in China.

 

[Wrought]

Many stories about this over the past month, and doubtless many more to come.

“The US has imposed tariffs on Chinese products? Transit through Malaysia to ‘transform’ into Southeast Asian goods!” said one advert posted this week on Xiaohongshu by an account under the name of “Ruby — Third Country Transshipment”. “The US has set limits on Chinese wooden flooring and tableware? ‘Wash the origin’ in Malaysia for smooth customs clearance!” it added. A person contacted through the details supplied in the advert declined to comment further.

A consultant who advises companies on cross-border trade said origin-washing was one of the two main methods being employed to avoid Trump’s new levies. The other was mixing high cost items with cheaper goods, so exporters could falsely claim a lower overall cost of shipments, the consultant said.

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Various folks have pointed out this is customs fraud, which is absolutely correct. Evasion, legal or otherwise, is an entirely predictable consequence of 145% tariffs. The problem is that the US simply does not have the bureaucratic capacity to track everything from everywhere. It cannot enforce its own laws (a smarter lawmaker might have put some more thought into this particular law beforehand, but it's a bit late for that). So yes, it's customs fraud and the US can't stop it.

Well, that's not quite right. The US can slap tariffs on the whole world, which will indeed stop it—at the cost the US economy. Destroy the economy to save it. Trump tried that once already, and promptly backed down.

 

[GulfLander]

Many stories about this over the past month, and doubtless many more to come.

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Various folks have pointed out this is customs fraud, which is absolutely correct. Evasion, legal or otherwise, is an entirely predictable consequence of 145% tariffs. The problem is that the US simply does not have the bureaucratic capacity to track everything from everywhere. It cannot enforce its own laws (a smarter lawmaker might have put some more thought into this particular law beforehand, but it's a bit late for that). So yes, it's customs fraud and the US can't stop it.

Well, that's not quite right. The US can slap tariffs on the whole world, which will indeed stop it—at the cost the US economy. Destroy the economy to save it. Trump tried that once already, and promptly backed down.

The 2nd method cited could be risky/problematic too thoufh for CN, since maybe ref1ned r4re e4rth metals cld use that method too...

 

[Wrought]

The 2nd method cited could be risky/problematic too thoufh for CN, since maybe ref1ned r4re e4rth metals cld use that method too...

Not sure what exactly you are referring to, but Chinese REMs are the exact opposite of this use case. Export controls instead of import controls. A US equivalent would be Nvidia chips, not tariffs. And those have their own flaws too, but it's a fundamentally different question.

 

[Jiang ZeminFanboy]

I don't like relying on the gig economy to create jobs, but I guess it's better than unemployment.

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These jobs should be more regulated with more social safety net, if the cost of deliveries increases so be it.

 

[siegecrossbow]

I don't like relying on the gig economy to create jobs, but I guess it's better than unemployment.

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It’s a terrible idea in the long term. Gig jobs are not stable.