Chinese Economics Thread

[Wrought]

US-Chinese negotiations are finally starting, with minister-level talks set to take place over the weekend.

US and Chinese officials are set to start talks this week to try to deescalate a trade war between the world's two biggest economies. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will attend the talks in Switzerland from 9 to 12 May, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs says. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer will represent Washington at the meeting, their offices announced.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Bessent also confirmed that no negotiations have taken place prior, i.e. these are the first.

WASHINGTON ―

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

said the Trump administration still has not engaged in trade negotiations with China, contradicting previous claims from

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

that the U.S. is talking to Beijing about tariffs. "China we have not engaged in negotiations with as of yet," Bessent told the House Appropriations Committee

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

As I noted previously, lower-level talks is the normal way of diplomacy which Trump tried (and failed) to circumvent with direct leader-level talks.

Trump 2.0 official thread

This just about sums it up. “The Trump administration has appeared confounded by Beijing’s entirely anticipable reaction to Trump’s tariff escalation,” added Mr. Hass, who met with officials and analysts in China this month as Mr. Trump escalated the tariffs. “China’s leaders do not view...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

 

[siegecrossbow]

US-Chinese negotiations are finally starting, with minister-level talks set to take place over the weekend.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Bessent also confirmed that no negotiations have taken place prior, i.e. these are the first.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

As I noted previously, lower-level talks is the normal way of diplomacy which Trump tried (and failed) to circumvent with direct leader-level talks.

Trump 2.0 official thread

This just about sums it up. “The Trump administration has appeared confounded by Beijing’s entirely anticipable reaction to Trump’s tariff escalation,” added Mr. Hass, who met with officials and analysts in China this month as Mr. Trump escalated the tariffs. “China’s leaders do not view...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

If you give an inch now Trump will take a mile. Hopefully Chinese leadership learned its lessons from Trump 1st term.

 

[GulfLander]

Even with a deal with China, there will be shortages because merchant ships need time before sailing, like a month.

Will shipowners pay the additional fees?

US-Chinese negotiations are finally starting, with minister-level talks set to take place over the weekend.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Bessent also confirmed that no negotiations have taken place prior, i.e. these are the first.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

As I noted previously, lower-level talks is the normal way of diplomacy which Trump tried (and failed) to circumvent with direct leader-level talks.

Trump 2.0 official thread

This just about sums it up. “The Trump administration has appeared confounded by Beijing’s entirely anticipable reaction to Trump’s tariff escalation,” added Mr. Hass, who met with officials and analysts in China this month as Mr. Trump escalated the tariffs. “China’s leaders do not view...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

Curious, will they atart talking tariffs or talk abt conditions for talks, like removing all unilateral tariffs vs CN?

 

[Wrought]

Curious, will they atart talking tariffs or talk abt conditions for talks, like removing all unilateral tariffs vs CN?

Both sides seem to be talking about lowering the current tariffs.

"My sense is that this will be about de-escalation, not about the big trade deal, but we've got to de-escalate before we can move forward," he said in an interview with Fox News.

"If the United States wants to resolve the issue through negotiations, it must face up to the serious negative impact of unilateral tariff measures on itself and the world," a Chinese commerce ministry spokesperson said on Wednesday morning.

If you give an inch now Trump will take a mile. Hopefully Chinese leadership learned its lessons from Trump 1st term.

My guess is that Beijing is content to pocket the gains it's made so far and get back to pre-April status quo. Which is the safe option, instead of pushing harder on the US (and risking more damage to everyone). If Trump gets zero net progress as a result of tariffs, that will be enough of a message to countries on the sidelines, I think. Everyone will know they just to hold for a month and Trump will fold.

 

[Wrought]

Since tariffs are not (yet) lowered, now seems like a good time to highlight the latest example of US customs enforcement failures.

The Financial Times reviewed offers by Chinese chemicals and packaging suppliers to send goods to small US companies with “delivery duties paid” — a process known as DDP that allows the exporter to cover

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

. The suppliers said the process would enable them to drastically reduce the cost of tariffs because they would deliberately undervalue the goods sent, or alter their descriptions to lessen the duties owed.

“We see more instances of factories in China offering to pay the customs duties for companies, and then sell them the merchandise in the US at prices below what the duties should be,” said Ryan Petersen, chief executive of logistics platform Flexport.

Paper vs practice.

“This is nothing but a tariff dodge,” said Dan Harris, a US lawyer who works with companies that source goods from China. While federal prosecutors would go after US companies colluding in the practice, “there is not much that [they] can do” to pursue Chinese counterparts, Harris added.

A government report in 2008 found that the Department of Justice rarely pursued cases of fraud by “foreign importers of record”, because “it is unlikely that collection actions based upon delinquent duties can be successfully brought in [a] foreign court”.

Incentivizing US firms to partake in illegal smuggling, truly a historic win.

Businesses such as Rubin’s, which have reported such approaches to US Customs and Border Protection, are concerned that competitors are accepting the deals, leaving law-abiding companies at a disadvantage. The practice “shuts down my ecommerce business”, said Rubin. “I can’t afford to pay a 175 per cent tariff if my competition isn’t going to pay it; no one is going to buy my [more expensive] goods.”

The owner of a California-based food manufacturer, who asked not to be named, said one Chinese supplier “offered to change the cogs on invoices to help me evade tariffs” soon after Trump rolled out the increased duties. “My option is to lay off my team or join in the fraud,” the owner said.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

And as a bonus, transshipment is booming.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1919403603451589068

 

[Quan8410]

If you give an inch now Trump will take a mile. Hopefully Chinese leadership learned its lessons from Trump 1st term.

Retreat from Taiwan or nothing. I believed Xi already signalled about this issue. Tarrif is actually a small problem.

 

[Wrought]

April exports way up, exceeding expectations hugely. Imports also much better than expected.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1920682720956739629

And I have been hammering this point for awhile now, but the bilateral data truly tells the story.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1920695685914960092

 

[proelite]

April exports way up, exceeding expectations hugely. Imports also much better than expected.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1920682720956739629

And I have been hammering this point for awhile now, but the bilateral data truly tells the story.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1920695685914960092

-21 US
+21 ASEAN

 

[Franklin]

Since tariffs are not (yet) lowered, now seems like a good time to highlight the latest example of US customs enforcement failures.



Paper vs practice.



Incentivizing US firms to partake in illegal smuggling, truly a historic win.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

And as a bonus, transshipment is booming.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1919403603451589068

No surprise there once Trump abandoned the reciprocal tariffs less than 2 days into its implementation i knew this would happen. People both in America and China needs to make a living so they will find a way to make it work. These tariffs won't be the one punch knockout blow for either China or America.

 

[tphuang]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

so this is important

据介绍，国家对镓、锗、锑、钨、中重稀土等战略矿产实施出口管制以来，部分境外实体与境内不法人员相互勾结，不断翻新走私出口手法，试图逃避打击。为避免战略矿产非法外流、遏制走私势头、切实维护国家安全，同时促进合规贸易、保障产供链稳定，打击战略矿产走私出口成为当前迫切且重要的工作任务。

　　记者了解到，各部门将聚焦战略矿产领域，加强源头管控，形成打击合力，针对伪报瞒报、夹藏走私、“第三国”转口等典型规避手法，重点打击战略矿产走私出口。同时，完善行刑衔接，依法加快办理并公布一批违法出口案件，深挖幕后非法实体和走私网络，坚决打深打透，对不法分子形成有力震慑。

have to prevent the transshipment and false reporting that is allowing export controlled minerals like Ga, Ge, Sb, Tungsten & RE from reach US market