Chinese Economics Thread

Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
Anlsvrthng said:
There is no similar quality data , the consumer credit
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doesn't necessarily contain the mortgage debt, and the value has to be guessed from the arises ( unless you have premium)
It is somewhere around 50 000 million yuan.

However the data that I use is the
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It is easy to ...
Click to expand...
... and you're veering off

I told you Yesterday at 9:16 PM

so let's start adding apples to apples:

consumer spending increase between 2016 and 2017
according to the link you provided 46 minutes ago
is (rounded) 317509-293443=24066 (unit is hundred of million Yuan)

what is "household debt growth" over the same period, in the same unit
please?


Anlsvrthng
your first number of your model inside
#9691 Anlsvrthng, Thursday at 8:19 AM
(after the caveats you were noticing
#9702 Anlsvrthng, Friday at 1:08 PM
#9715 Anlsvrthng, Friday at 9:52 PM
#9720 Anlsvrthng, Yesterday at 5:21 PM)
is 24066
CNY HML

what is your second number in
CNY HML?
(please show your calculation if you had to make an estimate/guess)


LOL don't quit on me now
 
Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
now noticed the tweet
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China is set to meet its economic growth target of 6.5% this year with its GDP reaching nearly $13 trillion, said Ning Jizhe, deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission

DvFe6wbUwAAcuO4.jpg

***
adding
United States of America/Gross domestic product (2017)
19.39 trillion USD (2017)
 
A

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Jura said:
... and you're veering off

I told you Yesterday at 9:16 PM

so let's start adding apples to apples:

consumer spending increase between 2016 and 2017
according to the link you provided 46 minutes ago
is (rounded) 317509-293443=24066 (unit is hundred of million Yuan)

what is "household debt growth" over the same period, in the same unit
please?


Anlsvrthng
your first number of your model inside
#9691 Anlsvrthng, Thursday at 8:19 AM
(after the caveats you were noticing
#9702 Anlsvrthng, Friday at 1:08 PM
#9715 Anlsvrthng, Friday at 9:52 PM
#9720 Anlsvrthng, Yesterday at 5:21 PM)
is 24066
CNY HML

what is your second number in
CNY HML?
(please show your calculation if you had to make an estimate/guess)


LOL don't quit on me now
Click to expand...
There is no similar quality data (that contain the numerical value, not only the graph) , the consumer credit
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doesn't necessarily contain the mortgage debt, and the value has to be guessed from the arises ( unless you have premium)
It is somewhere around 50 000 million yuan.

But it is safe to say it is way more than the increase in consumer spending.
If it doesn't contain the mortgage then the final value will be higher.


----------------------------
other source:
aprox 700 billion from 16-17 in usd.
Exchange rate is 1 USD = 6.9 CNY
4830 billion CNY

48300 hundred million CNY
ipc_china_household-debt
 
Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
Anlsvrthng said:
agree
Click to expand...
so why don't you go on,

the third term in
#9691 Anlsvrthng, Thursday at 8:19 AM
is:

hope by now you understand it should a value in
CNY HML
related to an increase between 2016 and 2017 of your
"(saving growth negative saving growth -)"


then be sure to add anything you want at this point to the left side and,
once ready, please get to your right side
"= close to 0 income growth" (or reformulate at this point)
and to your conclusion (please don't jump at any before the numbers I asked you for are collected)
 
A

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Jura said:
so why don't you go on,

the third term in
#9691 Anlsvrthng, Thursday at 8:19 AM
is:

hope by now you understand it should a value in
CNY HML
related to an increase between 2016 and 2017 of your
"(saving growth negative saving growth -)"


then be sure to add anything you want at this point to the left side and,
once ready, please get to your right side
"= close to 0 income growth" (or reformulate at this point)
and to your conclusion (please don't jump at any before the numbers I asked you for are collected)
Click to expand...

Calculating it painfully slow, but precisely it makes even worst picture.

The consumer debt grow faster than the consumer spending.

Anyway, there is the third component, the household saving.
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However the last doesn't show the full saving rate,only the deposit.

But say the household saving increase by one percent compared to the GDP, it is still cut out no more than quarter from the debt growth.
 
Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
Anlsvrthng said:
Calculating it painfully slow, but precisely it makes even worst picture.

The consumer debt grow faster than the consumer spending.

Anyway, there is the third component, the household saving.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

However the last doesn't show the full saving rate,only the deposit.

But say the household saving increase by one percent compared to the GDP, it is still cut out no more than quarter from the debt growth.
Click to expand...
LOL OK buddy, bit by bit again:

your third term in #9691 Anlsvrthng, Thursday at 8:19 AM, apparently household savings change between 2016 and 2017:
___ CNY HML
^^^ number

and show how did you estimate/guess this value please
 
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