Chinese Economics Thread

[Anlsvrthng]

They are just 2 numbers. I don't see why it is interesting. Calling everything interesting doesn't make you look smarter or more insightful. "I made $500 today and spent $200 taking my girlfriend to dinner. Interesting." See? I can do it too, but it's not interesting, is it?


Good for Estonia; I didn't even bother to look because it is irrelevant to China. If it's very nice as you say, then post it to the Estonian economy thread. Nobody cares about it here.

You mean ohm and kirchof works in small city sized distribution network, but it doesn't work in big , like on a GVA country big electrical network?

So, why the rules followed by USA, Brasil , Hungary , Poland , Kazakhstan, cccp doesn't relevant for China?

You can argue about that it is not valid for PARTS of China, but why it is not valid fo WHOLE China?

 

[manqiangrexue]

You mean ohm and kirchof works in small city sized distribution network, but it doesn't work in big , like on a GVA country big electrical network?

So, why the rules followed by USA, Brasil , Hungary , Poland , Kazakhstan, cccp doesn't relevant for China?

You can argue about that it is not valid for PARTS of China, but why it is not valid fo WHOLE China?

1. Because these aren't rules that anybody follows; it is a chain of events that occurred in a specific time and place. They are not laws dictated by nature; they are reliant on people doing the exact same things under the exact same circumstances to recreate those events. Economics is a pseudo-science; it cannot be treated like calculable physics. Economic assumptions depend on people reacting in the same way they have in the past. Thus, those who are educated in history may learn from these lessons and do things differently to achieve a different outcome.

2. China's economy, and every economy, is unique. China's economy is oftentimes described as even farther from Western conventional wisdom than thought possible for a powerful economy. When so many factors are different, you cannot point out small similarities and deduce similar outcome. For example, every fighter who went up against Connor MacGregor lost. Then, Nurmagomedov beat him. What is the difference between this man and MacGregor's other opponents? They are all men, similar age, similar weight and height! According to your prediction, he must lose as well. But when they fought, outcome was different, because there are so many variables in one man that it cannot be calculated. An economy is more complicated and made of many more variables than one man.

3. In economic history, does every country react the same way when faced with these pressures? No! You are selecting the few that fit a specific model, saying that China will go down this path as well. But there are many instances in economic history in which the outcome was not correctly predicted by these theories and these economies took a different path. You cannot discount them. If you wanted to do some study, you can say, "in these past 200 instances in which an economy around the world was subjected to this pressure, 163 of them resulted in this... 24 of them resulted in this... and the other 13 resulted in this... So statistically speaking, China may have an 81.5% of falling into this trap." This is actual work, not you picking some country whose story you like/are familiar with and saying that some small similarity will cause China to go that route as well.

4. China has already proven time and time again that it can succeed while defying all Western conventional wisdom or "models". The models that you use to predict China already cannot explain how China's economy became so big and powerful or how it grew so fast. According to Western dogma, Chinese technology cannot advance because the people have no freedom of thought. This is all stupidity that China has already defeated and put in the past, and now you wish to use them to predict China's future? You are trying to use tool that was already proven to be broken to do a job.

 

[Jura The idiot]

now noticed the tweet

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Asian markets plunged Thursday morning following the worst session on Wall Street for months. US President Trump said the Federal Reserve “has gone crazy” with plans for higher interest rates. Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Shanghai all plummeted around 4% in morning trade.

 

[Franklin]

A Chinese phone company headquartered in Shenzhen that only sells in Africa but not a single phone in China itself.

The Chinese phone giant that beat Apple to Africa

One of China's biggest smartphone makers has never sold a handset in the country. Yet thousands of miles away, it dominates markets across Africa. Unknown in the West, Transsion has left global players like Samsung and Apple trailing in its wake in a continent that's home to more than a billion people.

In cities like Lagos, Nairobi and Addis Ababa, busy streets are awash with the bright blue shopfronts of Transsion's flagship brand, Tecno. In China, the company doesn't have a single store, and its towering headquarters in the southern megacity of Shenzhen goes largely unnoticed among skyscrapers bearing the names of more famous Chinese tech firms.

The company took a different path to success from other top Chinese smartphone makers such as Huawei and Xiaomi, which started out in China before eventually expanding overseas.

Transsion built its business in Africa. And it has no plans to come home.

The perfect selfie

In Edna Mall on the bustling Bole Road in Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, Mesert Baru poses for her Tecno Camon i. "This phone is seriously nice for selfies," says the 35-year-old shop assistant, admiring the picture she just took.

Mesert's satisfaction is no accident. Tecno cameras have been optimized for African complexions, explains Arif Chowdhury, vice president of Transsion. "Our cameras adjust more light for darker skin, so the photograph is more beautiful," he says. "That's one of the reasons we've become successful."

Transsion founder George Zhu had spent nearly a decade traveling Africa as head of sales for another mobile phone company when he realized that selling Africans handsets made for developed markets was the wrong approach.

His timing could hardly have been better. By the mid-2000s, the Chinese government, under its "Going Out" strategy, was encouraging entrepreneurs to look abroad and forge stronger ties with African nations in particular. Cell phones were spreading rapidly in China, but in Africa — which has a roughly similar population — they were still a very rare luxury.
Africa, in other words, could be the new China.

Giving consumers what they want

In 2006, Zhu launched Tecno in Nigeria, targeting Africa's most populous nation first. From the start, the company's motto was "think global, act local," which meant making phones that met Africans' specific needs.

"When we started doing business in Africa, we noticed people had multiple SIM cards in their wallet," Chowdhury says. They would awkwardly swap the cards throughout the day to avoid the steep charges operators would levy for calling different networks, says Nabila Popal, who tracks the use of devices in Africa for research firm IDC. "They can't afford two phones," says Chowdhury, "so we brought a solution to them." Zhu made all Tecno handsets dual SIM.

More innovations followed. Transsion opened research and development centers in China, Nigeria and Kenya to work out how to better appeal to African users. Local languages such as Amharic, Hausa and Swahili were added to keyboards and phones were given a longer battery life.

Extra juice was important. In Nigeria, South Africa and Ethiopia, for example, the government frequently shuts off electricity to conserve power, leaving people unable to charge their phones for hours. In less developed markets, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chowdhury says, consumers might have to walk 30 kilometers to charge their phone at the local market -- and have to pay to do so. "For those kind of consumers, longer battery life is a blessing," he adds.

Sewedo Nupowaku, the Lagos-based CEO of entertainment company Revolution Media, says he switched from a Samsung S3 to a Tecno L8 for this reason. "I can spend 24 hours constantly talking, browsing on this phone, no problem. With a Samsung, no way."
But perhaps Transsion's smartest move was its pricing. It has three main brands: Tecno, Infinix and Itel. Most of their feature and smartphones sell for between $15 and $200.

Mesert says she bought her Tecno smartphone for 2,000 birr ($72). At a shop near her workplace, an iPhone 7 costs the equivalent of $906, and a Samsung Galaxy J7 around $360. Average monthly wages in Ethiopia range from 1,500 birr ($54) to 3,000 ($108) birr, and most vendors across Africa don't allow customers to pay in installments.
"About 95% of Transsion smartphones cost under $200," says Mo Jia, an analyst at technology research firm Canalys. "They are the king of the budget smartphone."

Tecno: 'We are African'

Less than a decade ago, Chinese phones were barely on the radar in Africa. In 2010, Nokia and Samsung (SSNLF) dominated sales across the continent. By the first half of this year, Nokia's share of the market had collapsed and Samsung was selling only one in 10 phones. Transsion had come from nowhere to take more than 50% of the market, according to Canalys. For smartphones alone, it accounts for nearly a third of all sales in Africa, according to IDC.

Apple (AAPL) has been complacent about African markets, Jia says, because it deemed the slim profit margins on low-cost phones not worth fighting for. Transsion, on the other hand, is happy to work with tight margins, he adds. Apple didn't respond to requests for comment.

Transsion's rise reflects the wider role Chinese firms now play in providing the technology people across Africa use to communicate, including the high-speed internet networks on which smartphones rely. Despite security concerns in countries such as the United States and Australia about Huawei and ZTE, Jia expects demand for Chinese products to remain strong in Africa, where governments and consumers are so price sensitive.

In its marketing, Transsion plays down its Chinese roots. "In Africa, we say that we are African," Chowdhury says, explaining why Tecno's stores carry no Chinese characters or signs of being a Chinese brand. In the 2017-2018 Brand Africa 100 report, published by African Business magazine, Tecno ranked as the 7th most admired brand in Africa. That was up from 14th the previous year, but it still lagged Samsung (2nd) and Apple (5th). The iPhone is still considered a luxury product that many Africans aspire to own.

In Ethiopia, Transsion went a step further to assimilate. Since 2011, every phone it sells in Africa's second most populous nation has been assembled at its facilities in the suburbs of Addis Ababa. About 700 workers piece together Shenzhen-manufactured screens, circuit boards and batteries to churn out 2,000 smartphones and 4,000 feature phones a day.
Transsion says it has a total of 10,000 local employees in Africa, and 6,000 in China. Its low-cost African workforce helps it keep down prices, according to Jia. It also adds appeal for some consumers. "I like that my phone is made in Ethiopia," Mesert says.

A homegrown rival to Spotify

Nigeria, with its population of 186 million, is Transsion's biggest market. It has connected with consumers there through one of their biggest passions: music.

Oye Akideinde, an amateur rapper turned software developer, was recruited by Tecno in 2015 to launch a music app called Boomplay, a homegrown rival to iTunes or Spotify. Most Nigerian internet users grew up illegally downloading music or streaming it for free on YouTube, according to Akideinde, a 40-year-old Lagos resident.

Tecno's vision was to attract music lovers by uniting African and international artists on a single platform offering affordable downloads and streaming with advertising. It preloaded the app onto every Tecno smartphone and made it the default music player. The app now has 32 million users.

Tecno spun off Boomplay and its apps division into a new company, TranssNet, last year. Backed by NetEase, a $30 billion Chinese internet company, TranssNet plans to introduce a suite of financial apps on smartphones made by Transsion.

Chinese companies have been eager to use technology to tap into Africans' spending habits. In 2015, Kenyan mobile payments operator M-Pesa migrated all of its 12.8 million subscribers to Huawei's Mobile Money platform as it expanded across East Africa and beyond. The move increased the number of transactions M-Pesa could process, and the app's user base has more than doubled since then.

Expanding in India and beyond

For Transsion, future growth is set to come from building its business outside Africa in other developing markets, such as Russia, Indonesia and Bangladesh. In 2017, it launched Tecno in India and within a year had claimed 5% of the huge market, according to IDC.

How did Tecno make such rapid progress? Transsion's Chowdhury says another innovation tailored to local customs has helped.

"Indian people use their hands to eat food," he says, "so their fingers get oily. What if you're having lunch and your boss calls? You try to take the call but your fingerprint won't work."

The fix: screens that can read greasy fingers.

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[Jura The idiot]

now I read
China unveils plan to further tap consumption potential
Xinhua| 2018-10-11 18:17:55

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The State Council, China's cabinet, announced on Thursday a public plan to improve the mechanisms for promoting residential consumption between 2018 and 2020.

The plan, released by the General Office of the State Council, maps out ways to remove the most direct and prominent system- and mechanism-related barriers that hinder residential consumption, in order to further stimulate consumption potential.

Dovetailing with the new trend of consumption transformation and upgrading, the new document focuses on forming reasonable consumption expectations and enhancing the fundamental role of consumption in promoting economic growth.

China will nurture market segments in important domains of consumption, create a sound consumption environment and continuously raise residents' consumption capacities, the plan showed.

Before 2020, the government will relax market access in the field of service consumption, improve the policy mix for promoting the upgrading of material consumption structures, and set more standards for goods and services in important areas, the plan read.

Efforts will also be made to create a better credit system and optimize supporting measures for consumption promotion, including measures on individual income tax and income distribution reforms.

 

[AndrewS]

1. Because these aren't rules that anybody follows; it is a chain of events that occurred in a specific time and place. They are not laws dictated by nature; they are reliant on people doing the exact same things under the exact same circumstances to recreate those events. Economics is a pseudo-science; it cannot be treated like calculable physics. Economic assumptions depend on people reacting in the same way they have in the past. Thus, those who are educated in history may learn from these lessons and do things differently to achieve a different outcome.

2. China's economy, and every economy, is unique. China's economy is oftentimes described as even farther from Western conventional wisdom than thought possible for a powerful economy. When so many factors are different, you cannot point out small similarities and deduce similar outcome. For example, every fighter who went up against Connor MacGregor lost. Then, Nurmagomedov beat him. What is the difference between this man and MacGregor's other opponents? They are all men, similar age, similar weight and height! According to your prediction, he must lose as well. But when they fought, outcome was different, because there are so many variables in one man that it cannot be calculated. An economy is more complicated and made of many more variables than one man.

3. In economic history, does every country react the same way when faced with these pressures? No! You are selecting the few that fit a specific model, saying that China will go down this path as well. But there are many instances in economic history in which the outcome was not correctly predicted by these theories and these economies took a different path. You cannot discount them. If you wanted to do some study, you can say, "in these past 200 instances in which an economy around the world was subjected to this pressure, 163 of them resulted in this... 24 of them resulted in this... and the other 13 resulted in this... So statistically speaking, China may have an 81.5% of falling into this trap." This is actual work, not you picking some country whose story you like/are familiar with and saying that some small similarity will cause China to go that route as well.

4. China has already proven time and time again that it can succeed while defying all Western conventional wisdom or "models". The models that you use to predict China already cannot explain how China's economy became so big and powerful or how it grew so fast. According to Western dogma, Chinese technology cannot advance because the people have no freedom of thought. This is all stupidity that China has already defeated and put in the past, and now you wish to use them to predict China's future? You are trying to use tool that was already proven to be broken to do a job.

On point 3 and 4, even though that study shows the vast majority of countries don't make it past the middle income trap, remember that China's peer group are the East Asian Economic Tigers. The authors of the study certainly didn't do that.

But if one compares China to these models, China's future looks promising.

 

[Jura The idiot]

now noticed the tweet

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Germany’s BMW said it plans to pay $4.16 billion take control of its main joint venture in China, the first such move by a global carmaker as China starts to relax foreign equity caps in the automotive industry

 

[Anlsvrthng]

1. Because these aren't rules that anybody follows; it is a chain of events that occurred in a specific time and place. They are not laws dictated by nature; they are reliant on people doing the exact same things under the exact same circumstances to recreate those events. Economics is a pseudo-science; it cannot be treated like calculable physics. Economic assumptions depend on people reacting in the same way they have in the past. Thus, those who are educated in history may learn from these lessons and do things differently to achieve a different outcome.

All "natural law" actually result of repeated observation, and if an observation has the same expected result (by the theory) again and again, then after six sigma confidence it become "natural law".
But even if there is a new experiment that deliver result NOT predicted by the theory it will not falsify it, but rather restrict it.

Anyway, the way as the current economic/legal system has been developed used by EVERY Country on earth happened by lot of trial and error experiments in Europe , and actually the successful ones was copied over by the other European countries.

When the US has been made they just copied over the best parts of economical/legal system from Europe, and China done the same.

So, by arguing about that the Chinese system is different you making the next mistakes:
1. The Chinese system wasn't made in China, but it is a copy/past from different countries legal/economics system.
2. The observations/ developed rules works, otherwise the Chinese economy can not growth using the copied ideas from Europe/USA/Russia.
3. The rules that made possible for China to growth was copied over from way smaller countries ( example Netherlands) and still works.

2. China's economy, and every economy, is unique. China's economy is oftentimes described as even farther from Western conventional wisdom than thought possible for a powerful economy. When so many factors are different, you cannot point out small similarities and deduce similar outcome. For example, every fighter who went up against Connor MacGregor lost. Then, Nurmagomedov beat him. What is the difference between this man and MacGregor's other opponents? They are all men, similar age, similar weight and height! According to your prediction, he must lose as well. But when they fought, outcome was different, because there are so many variables in one man that it cannot be calculated. An economy is more complicated and made of many more variables than one man.

You argue about the non-predictability of the future. It is true on every scale ( example in QM it is not possible to know the outcome of an experiment), but we can make probability sets, sum up to 1. Example Pettis doing it.

Second, this is the way as the decision makers works. Xi is not more clever than me or you, and has to make decisions considering more variables.
Means they re absolutely aware of the problems as well, but they try to satisfy lot of high power person in the country to let anything happens.
And at the same time they doing wack-a-mole , faster and faster as the freedom of movement decrease.

Sum: IF using general rules based on previous observation by different countries does not works THEN how can Xi , the president of PBC and so on can make decisions? I

3. In economic history, does every country react the same way when faced with these pressures? No! You are selecting the few that fit a specific model, saying that China will go down this path as well. But there are many instances in economic history in which the outcome was not correctly predicted by these theories and these economies took a different path. You cannot discount them. If you wanted to do some study, you can say, "in these past 200 instances in which an economy around the world was subjected to this pressure, 163 of them resulted in this... 24 of them resulted in this... and the other 13 resulted in this... So statistically speaking, China may have an 81.5% of falling into this trap." This is actual work, not you picking some country whose story you like/are familiar with and saying that some small similarity will cause China to go that route as well.

What is in these graphs are not simple "observations", but rather political decisions.
Every graph in Lithuania, Estonia, Hungary,USA, China or Poland is reflecting POLITICAL decision about how to form the economy , which group of people to prefer and so on.
Example when it come to make decision in Hungary about that to move the wealth to the workers, OR load them with debt, and keep the wealth in the hand of preferred//politically connected ones guess what was the decisions?

So, it is not like "whop, I forgot to check the shape of consumer debt to GDP curve", but rather " I had to load up the consumers with debt, or my best friends will loose they wealth".

4. China has already proven time and time again that it can succeed while defying all Western conventional wisdom or "models". The models that you use to predict China already cannot explain how China's economy became so big and powerful or how it grew so fast. According to Western dogma, Chinese technology cannot advance because the people have no freedom of thought. This is all stupidity that China has already defeated and put in the past, and now you wish to use them to predict China's future? You are trying to use tool that was already proven to be broken to do a job.

It is NOT Chinese made , it is a copy from different places around the world ( mainly from Europe/ USA)
The original Chinese system was the one abolished around 1900. Since that it is a copy/past to catch up with everyone else.

And actually the political system of China put higher requirements onto the persons on the top, and by history they are rarely up to the job.
Check Gorbachev, Stalin and so on.
The USA political system is robust and has low entropy, the Russian weak and has high entropy -change one person in the system can cause dramatic changes in Russia, in USA it can cause minor changes ( see Trump).

I mean, example in China the "graphs" showing that the politically connected/wealthy has priority over the everyday person.
Check the consumption ratio, investment ratio, consumer debt and so on.
It showing that the increase in consumption doesn't happens BECAUSE of the wealth transfer, but because of debt.
It means that the wealthy become more wealthy, and the general population become poorer, transfer to the wealthy not only current savings, but future saving as well.

This is not what the Chinese top leaders wants, but this is the best that they can achieved.

So, checking the graphs doesn't gives the future, but it showing the current status/direction of the country.

Like knowing the viscosity over the temperature range of an engine oil will not tell when the time the engine will fail, only the operation conditions when it can fail.
By mapping out the edge conditions it is possible to asses the probabilities of the future events.

Example, if the viscosity is low, then we know that the car will be able to work only for a limited time with full power in high temperature environment, before fail. So , the owner has to drive slow , even if he wants to go fast, or risk engine failure.

 

[manqiangrexue]

All "natural law" actually result of repeated observation, and if an observation has the same expected result (by the theory) again and again, then after six sigma confidence it become "natural law".
But even if there is a new experiment that deliver result NOT predicted by the theory it will not falsify it, but rather restrict it.

Anyway, the way as the current economic/legal system has been developed used by EVERY Country on earth happened by lot of trial and error experiments in Europe , and actually the successful ones was copied over by the other European countries.

When the US has been made they just copied over the best parts of economical/legal system from Europe, and China done the same.

So, by arguing about that the Chinese system is different you making the next mistakes:
1. The Chinese system wasn't made in China, but it is a copy/past from different countries legal/economics system.
2. The observations/ developed rules works, otherwise the Chinese economy can not growth using the copied ideas from Europe/USA/Russia.
3. The rules that made possible for China to growth was copied over from way smaller countries ( example Netherlands) and still works.

Whenever you refer to economic principles as "rules" you show again that you don't understand what economics is. "Natural law" cannot be broken. E=MC^2 is a natural law. Every economic principal can be broken, even the most basic supply and demand curve, and usually they are broken as often as they are followed. And also, you are wrong on the experimentation; an experiment that delivers evidence to disprove a theory will completely nullify the theory, NOT simply restrict it, unless by restricting, you mean that a new theory must be made with new caveats. Economics is just theories and predictions. When you use "rule" or "law" to describe them, you disqualify yourself as an economist. For your 3:

1. The Chinese system is completely unique; parts are taken from China and parts from historical lessons of other countries. Combined, they are not the same as any other country.
2. This unique system works, but it does not work in the same way as the original components did by themselves.
3. Once again, the system is a unique and very complex hybrid; it cannot be judged as though it were pure of any part.

One of the most obvious differences between China's system and that of Western economies is that the government exerts far more control over the economy. This factor, even when taken alone, can defeat economic principles as those principles usually assume a free market economy without strong government manipulation. If you analyze a highly regulated economy by the principles of a free market one, you are bound to make huge mistakes, as you have.

You argue about the non-predictability of the future. It is true on every scale ( example in QM it is not possible to know the outcome of an experiment), but we can make probability sets, sum up to 1. Example Pettis doing it.

Second, this is the way as the decision makers works. Xi is not more clever than me or you, and has to make decisions considering more variables.
Means they re absolutely aware of the problems as well, but they try to satisfy lot of high power person in the country to let anything happens.
And at the same time they doing wack-a-mole , faster and faster as the freedom of movement decrease.

Sum: IF using general rules based on previous observation by different countries does not works THEN how can Xi , the president of PBC and so on can make decisions? I

It is not that historical lessons have no value; it is that they can be used to change the way that things happen this time by avoiding the same mistakes. Therefore, predicting the same outcome when there is an active learning force to avoid it is futile. Just like in the fight as I mentioned, Nurmagamedov watched MacGregor's old fights and didn't use them to predict his own defeat; he used them to make sure he didn't make any of the mistakes that other fighters made so he could beat MacGregor. That's how the CCP makes decisions too.

What is in these graphs are not simple "observations", but rather political decisions.
Every graph in Lithuania, Estonia, Hungary,USA, China or Poland is reflecting POLITICAL decision about how to form the economy , which group of people to prefer and so on.
Example when it come to make decision in Hungary about that to move the wealth to the workers, OR load them with debt, and keep the wealth in the hand of preferred//politically connected ones guess what was the decisions?

So, it is not like "whop, I forgot to check the shape of consumer debt to GDP curve", but rather " I had to load up the consumers with debt, or my best friends will loose they wealth".

And political decisions can be different, same, partly changed or, almost the same but different at a crucial step to reap the rewards while avoiding the shortfalls of the historical cases. Or they can even be exactly the same but achieve different effects because of differences noted in the circumstances between the current vs historical case.All of this, you don't know.

It is NOT Chinese made , it is a copy from different places around the world ( mainly from Europe/ USA)
The original Chinese system was the one abolished around 1900. Since that it is a copy/past to catch up with everyone else.

And actually the political system of China put higher requirements onto the persons on the top, and by history they are rarely up to the job.
Check Gorbachev, Stalin and so on.
The USA political system is robust and has low entropy, the Russian weak and has high entropy -change one person in the system can cause dramatic changes in Russia, in USA it can cause minor changes ( see Trump).

See response to first paragraph. China's economy copied parts form others and added its unique features so that it it completely unique now.

I mean, example in China the "graphs" showing that the politically connected/wealthy has priority over the everyday person.
Check the consumption ratio, investment ratio, consumer debt and so on.
It showing that the increase in consumption doesn't happens BECAUSE of the wealth transfer, but because of debt.
It means that the wealthy become more wealthy, and the general population become poorer, transfer to the wealthy not only current savings, but future saving as well.

This is not what the Chinese top leaders wants, but this is the best that they can achieved.

That is your interpretation on a small set of data. But is the per capita GDP is rising and the middle class is increasing, that's direct evidence that the quality of life is increasing. Even if the wealth gap rises, as long as the per capita GDP rises as well, it means improvement for everyone, but that the wealthy are improving their businesses even faster. I have never seen any argument by a credible economist that China's standards of living are not rising.

So, checking the graphs doesn't gives the future, but it showing the current status/direction of the country.

Like knowing the viscosity over the temperature range of an engine oil will not tell when the time the engine will fail, only the operation conditions when it can fail.
By mapping out the edge conditions it is possible to asses the probabilities of the future events.

Example, if the viscosity is low, then we know that the car will be able to work only for a limited time with full power in high temperature environment, before fail. So , the owner has to drive slow , even if he wants to go fast, or risk engine failure.

Yeah no, physics of engines is a hard science; economics is a fickle pseudoscience. As long as you always get those 2 confused, you will always be wrong. So from this post, I can summarize 2 critical misconceptions that you have the completely disqualify you on analyzing the Chinese economy:

1. You don't understand what economics is; you think it is a hard science with "natural law" and "rules" when it is only theory and observation that is oftentimes broken in real life.
2. You think that China's economy is a copy of Western economies, therefore they are the same and can be judged by the same principles. This mistake is really very low level; every career economist knows that China's system is unique even if parts of it were taken from other economies. Even if China added nothing, a hybrid of many things cannot be the considered the same as any one, and China did add much of its own derivations into its economy. The high level of control being the most obvious difference, China's economy has already proven itself to defy Western principles through its historical rise and yet you still pretend that these principles apply to China just the same. This is not an intelligent mistake.

So you don't understand what economics is and you don't understand what the Chinese economy is; how can you use economic principles to analyze the Chinese economy? LOLOL

 

[Anlsvrthng]

Whenever you refer to economic principles as "rules" you show again that you don't understand what economics is. "Natural law" cannot be broken. E=MC^2 is a natural law. Every economic principal can be broken, even the most basic supply and demand curve, and usually they are broken as often as they are followed. And also, you are wrong on the experimentation; an experiment that delivers evidence to disprove a theory will completely nullify the theory, NOT simply restrict it, unless by restricting, you mean that a new theory must be made with new caveats. Economics is just theories and predictions. When you use "rule" or "law" to describe them, you disqualify yourself as an economist. For your 3:
.....

Can you please point out where I said that the economics laws are like natural laws?
Further, can you point out when I said that there are real natural laws, and not just simply theories supported by six sigma observational evidence, and generating falsifiable experiments?

Further, I think it is easy to recognise that it is not possible to collect six sigma evidence for anything that happens in economy on macro level, simply because you can not make experiment that falsify it, and the supporting ones has too small number to give even low sigma values.

I thought that it is easy to make this connections, but looks like it is not : P

So, practically you saying that China is an unicorn , born from the dirt of Europe and the hermetic magic of ancients, and because she is an Unicorn the rules that govern other countries are not bonding her : P

Maybe it an be interesting how the magicians of the CPC made it : P

Anyway, it is a cargo cult like mentality, making a " magical elder leader" who can solve everything : P



Alan Greenspan was exactly like this, Gandalf with the Wisdom of Elders, until he supervised the second biggest meltdown of the USA economy in the past hundred years, after spending his life as "economical scientist" in his amber tower, surrounded by his apprentices in the hermetic science : D

Since no one talk about him like "maestro" or the artist of interest rate : D

anyway, there are few things that works in the economy like magic :
1. basic accounting . No one can escape it : D. If A+B=C then C-A=B. the consumption vs gdp works exactly like this. Falsify it require fight against few thousand years of basic math.
2. Politics. The macro economy steered by politics, not made up rules by the Greenspan kinds of paper makers. Reason why we see the explosion of debt of the Chinese households. Falsify it require proving the saint like mentality of politicians/business owners : )

The leftover of your post has no real analysable text,beyond the rainbow of Unicorn.

Generally about "natural laws", by the current standing of QE there are only simplified rules / patterns that we can use to predict the outcome of certain experiments/ processes, thank for the very low temperature and gravitational curve of our universe.
So, if we steering away a bit from this "island of stability" that is our small and narrow universe, the nature become absolutely unpredictable, and the "laws" that govern her become fractal like, practically random functions, with small changes making completely different, unpredictable outcomes.
Sadly.
C'mon, there is no "natural law" that describe the motion of 3 object in the gravitational field of each other .
Or the QM can make good equations for 2d events, the marginal problem is our universe is not flat : P