Chinese Economics Thread

[Hendrik_2000]

Analysis from nut cases worth less than toilet papers

Exactly CBB is an American outfit supposedly collecting information not from statistic but from anecdotal account in the press. Add to that their pontificating attitude you get alternative universe. I have read their report over the years and always have bearish outlook on China. The same as Micheal Petis. Here is their mission statement basically distrust anything that come from Chinese statistic and offer "alternative explanation" something like alt right

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[manqiangrexue]

I just become curious to position China current state compared to the Eastern European countries.

I choose 1990 vs 2017 , and Germany as baseline, using the GDP PPP numbers from tradingeconomics.com.
Chosen countries Poland and Hungary .

Hungary 1990: 15000 USD/person, 2017: 27000 usd/person
Poland : 1990 : 10000 usd/person, 2017 : 27000 usd/person.
Germany 1990:27000 USD/ person, 2017 : 45200 usd/person.
China 1990:1500 USD preson, 2017:15000 USD/person.

So, by percentage Poland was on the 32% of Germany economical performance in 1990, Hungary was at 48%. Both of them improved themselves to 60% to 2017.

China now on the economical development level where Poland was in 1990, at 33% of the German economical performance.

It has few interesting implications:
1. it was possible to make 5% GDP growth in Hungary for a decade.
2. Both country had more than 10 % higher consumption than China in 1990 , without healthcare
3. I made a mistake, the seemingly wasted highway investment has higher return (Destroying less value) in Hungary / Poland than in China.


And generally, just because you have one experience, and you are Chinese doesn't means that China is not constrained by the same rules as every other country in history /around the world.

The thing that you feels by reading this text called as "

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".

Oh my gosh, how sad! I came home just a little bit late from work today and everybody already killed you with responses LOL. What else can I say? I'm not going to repeat what they already said.

It's just so sad that with your pitiful sense of economics that you even tried to compare China to Eastern Europe. If you look at any growth chart, you know Eastern Europe is stagnant. If you did any travelling, you'd see that China has bigger better cities, more advanced technology, stronger performing economy than... Eastern Europe... LOL That sentence is stupid to even say because it is like comparing a rising young engineer to a MacDonald's cook. No one ever, other than you, has tried so hard to twist data to make a clearly under-performing and stagnant region of the world compare favorably to dynamic and rising China, the only country that could challenge the US as the next apex power. You should visit a chiropractor, cus that sort of twisting is definitely bad for your spine LOL, and it doesn't convince anyone either...

 

[vincent]

China is a big country.

Even a small, 10 million country has extreme level of differences between the capital / rest of the country.
So, Sanghai etc doesn't show the average or typical China, and frankly I don't think that anyone has any clue how China really looks like on average.Simply it too big to make a good assessment or sampling by a single person.
By the numbers on average it is more similar to Brazil than to Japan.


And it actually goes back to the point 1 , if it is so difficult to manage a small country, how easy is to manage a country 130 times bigger, and having four magnitudes more complicated relationship system ?

Dude, you are just as pathetic as a blind man who insists he knows exactly what an elephant looks like after touching one, even after everyone else point out he is wrong

 

[manqiangrexue]

Dude, you are just as pathetic as a blind man who insists he knows exactly what an elephant looks like after touching one, even after everyone else point out he is wrong

That's what happens when you're going nowhere so you hope everybody else goes nowhere too. Losers love to (try to) pick fault with others. Winners just make themselves stronger. Anlverything's so ashamed of where he's from he won't even tell us his nationality; he's completely given up on his own country so now he just wants to spread the gloom. For some people, it's the last thing they have left.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

That's what happens when you're going nowhere so you hope everybody else goes nowhere too. Losers love to (try to) pick fault with others. Winners just make themselves stronger. Anlverything's so ashamed of where he's from he won't even tell us his nationality; he's completely given up on his own country so now he just wants to spread the gloom. For some people, it's the last thing they have left.

Most likely he come from Poland but has to find work in England my guess. He keep mentioning Poland
Yup the eastern European has big chip on their shoulder except Hungarian since they travel less than the German or other western European

 

[vincent]

That's what happens when you're going nowhere so you hope everybody else goes nowhere too. Losers love to (try to) pick fault with others. Winners just make themselves stronger. Anlverything's so ashamed of where he's from he won't even tell us his nationality; he's completely given up on his own country so now he just wants to spread the gloom. For some people, it's the last thing they have left.

He's more sinister than that. He has tried to equate current China with Nazi Germany before WWII

 

[Anlsvrthng]

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China Announces More Tariff Cuts to Spur Spending, Investment

State Council doesn’t say whether reductions will apply to U.S. products

BEIJING—China says it will take another step to cut tariffs on imported goods, as it seeks to combat a slowing economy amid escalating trade tensions with the U.S.

China’s State Council announced broad details of the cuts late Wednesday, without saying whether they would apply to U.S. products. China has previously vowed to exclude from tariff reductions any nation engaged in a trade fight with it.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

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China Announces More Tariff Cuts to Spur Spending, Investment

State Council doesn’t say whether reductions will apply to U.S. products

BEIJING—China says it will take another step to cut tariffs on imported goods, as it seeks to combat a slowing economy amid escalating trade tensions with the U.S.

China’s State Council announced broad details of the cuts late Wednesday, without saying whether they would apply to U.S. products. China has previously vowed to exclude from tariff reductions any nation engaged in a trade fight with it.

It doesn't apply to US product !

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"Cutting tariffs makes a lot of sense," Alden said. "If you're worried about strengthening China's position in the supply chain, if you cut tariffs — especially on intermediate goods — that helps the competitiveness of company's within China and it helps keep down consumer costs at a time the tariff war is driving them up."

Essentially, cutting tariffs for non-US goods would act as a release valve for some of the pressure from the trade war. Businesses and consumers in China won't see as dramatic an increase in the cost of goods, which decreases public pressure on the government to come to an agreement with the US.

Additionally, the cut is likely to increase pain on US manufacturers as Chinese consumers shift from more expensive American goods toward cheaper alternatives from other countries. Scott Kennedy, a Chinese economic expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said it means gains from the cut would go to non-US companies.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

I went through historical GDP PPP numbers, and these are surprising. : o

So, baseline Germany actual GDP PPP, so the 1990 German vs everything else from the same year, and 2017 as well.

Contry - GDP PPP in 1990 - GDP PPP in 2017
Slovakia - 48% - 66%
Czech - 65% - 72%
Romania -37% - 52%
Argentina -35% - 42%
Nigeria- 10% - 12%
Hungary 48% - 60%
Russia - 65% - 55%
No , suprise :
Poland - 32% - 60%
China - 5% - 33%

The Chinese growth looks like "big " because in 1990 in that country was backward compared to even Nigeria ( the African country had twice as big GDP PPP : O )

Between 1990 - 2017 China closed the gap between her and Germany by 28%.

It is match Poland performance, they shown 28% gap close vs Germany.

Actually, if we take the performance of Poland in 1991 then the advancement is 29%, more than China.

The Argentine / Nigerian numbers showing stagnation , Eastern Europe shown dramatic growth , and Poland actually show as big as China.

Of course Poland in 1990 hasn't got any motorway ( it was shocking to see it : D ) , and no trade / foreign investment. And of course the EU ascension helped a lot as well.

And China at the moment is on the level like Poland was in 1990.

How China managed to have half of the GDP of Nigeria in 1990 ?

 

[Anlsvrthng]

He's more sinister than that. He has tried to equate current China with Nazi Germany before WWII

The history written by the winners.