Chinese Economics Thread

Klon

Junior Member
Registered Member
Sorry, I see nothing in your link that supports those two conclusions. China's current demographics has two peaks, one at 45-49 and another at 25-29. By the time the younger peak moves into retirement, the first peak will be long gone.
On the contrary, the two statements are unambiguously true. The numbers are provided in the linked comment, as is the source, for anyone who wants to see it for themself.
 

hkbc

Junior Member
On the contrary, the two statements are unambiguously true. The numbers are provided in the linked comment, as is the source, for anyone who wants to see it for themself.

I'd forget it and move on, to save you some time, the follow up will be something along the lines of "you and your western propaganda!", "you just don't understand the issues and you're cherry picking your data!" :eek:
 

Dizasta1

Senior Member
Petro-yuan helps Russia & China dump US dollar in oil trade

China is the world's biggest crude consumer and buys most of its oil from Russia. However, most settlements are still in US dollars. The launch of the petro-yuan now allows Moscow and Beijing to use national currencies instead.

China and Russia are actively reducing dependence on the dollar in bilateral trade. In October 2017, Beijing launched a payment system for transactions in yuan and Russian rubles. This means that settlements for Russian oil deliveries to China, which have reached 60 million tons per year, can be done without using the dollar.

After Monday's launch of the yuan-backed oil futures in Shanghai, there have been negotiation between Russia and China on mutual promotion of oil futures in national currencies, RIA Novosti reported. In 2016, the St. Petersburg exchange in Russia launched Urals oil futures in the Russian ruble, and support from China could prop up Russian crude futures.

China's new oil benchmark had a hugely successful debut. On the first day of trading in Shanghai, 62,500 contracts with more than 62 million barrels of crude traded for a notional value of nearly 27 billion yuan ($4 billion), Zerohedge reported. Glencore, Trafigura, Freepoint Commodities and other huge oil-trading corporations took part.

Russia held its position as China's largest crude oil supplier in February. Russia supplied 5.052 million tons, or 1.32 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, up 17.8 percent from a year earlier, according to Reuters, quoting the Chinese General Administration of Customs.

The increase in volume happened as a result of a second Sino-Russian oil pipeline, which began operations on January 1. It doubled China’s capacity to pump oil from the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) system. ESPO connects Russia and China with a direct pipeline.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

solarz

Brigadier
On the contrary, the two statements are unambiguously true. The numbers are provided in the linked comment, as is the source, for anyone who wants to see it for themself.

Repeating something is true doesn't make it so.

Please explain to me how two demographic peaks at 25-29 and 45-49 will result in a steadily aging population until 2060? By the time the first demographic reaches retirement age, the second demographic would be over 80 years old. The average life expectancy in China is only 76 years.

I'd forget it and move on, to save you some time, the follow up will be something along the lines of "you and your western propaganda!", "you just don't understand the issues and you're cherry picking your data!" :eek:

If you have a disagreement with me on another thread, respond in that thread.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
Sorry, I see nothing in your link that supports those two conclusions. China's current demographics has two peaks, one at 45-49 and another at 25-29. By the time the younger peak moves into retirement, the first peak will be long gone.
I think this merits a closer look. If we define the retirement age to be 65 (which we shouldn't, since it isn't static, but it's a fair enough simplification), the first cohort will start to retire in 16 years (i.e., 2033), while the second cohort will enter retirement in 36 years (i.e., 2053). Think about the pace of medical advancements over that time frame -- especially with an increasingly enriched China able to contribute more to that research effort. Think about the breakthroughs being made in laboratories today - CRISPR, iPSCs, etc. - and run the tape forward a few decades. I don't think a 65 year old of the first cohort will be in the same state of ill-health as 65 year old of today, let alone a 65 year old of the second and subsequent cohorts.
 
now I read
Economic Watch: Accelerated industrial profit growth evidence of economic stabilization
Xinhua| 2018-03-27 22:51:29
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China's major industrial firms saw stronger profit growth in the first two months of this year thanks to improved efficiency and profitability, adding to evidence of a stabilizing economy.

Industrial companies with annual revenue of more than 20 million yuan (about 3.2 million U.S. dollars) reported profits of 969 billion yuan in the first two months, a 16.1-percent increase from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Tuesday in a statement.

The reading was 5.3 percentage points higher than the growth registered in December, according to the NBS.

Among the 41 industries surveyed, 29 posted year-on-year profit growth during Jan.- Feb. period.

Industries like pharmaceuticals, coal mining and textiles all reported faster growth during the two-month period, said the NBS.

NBS statistician He Ping attributed the profit growth to improved profitability and reduced costs.

"While industrial profits maintained rapid growth, improvements were made in efficiency and profitability," He said.

In the first two months, costs per 100 yuan of revenue dropped 0.33 yuan from the same period last year, according to He.

Meanwhile, the profit rate of major industrial companies rose by 0.33 percentage points to 6.1 percent.

He mentioned that the leverage ratio in Chinese industrial enterprises also fell. By the end of February, their debt-asset ratio dropped 0.8 percentage points from a year ago to 56.3 percent.

The companies also reported healthier balance sheets. The average collection period for accounts receivable decreased from 47.6 days a year earlier to 47.4 days by the end of February.

He highlighted the performance of major state-owned industrial companies whose profits rose 29.6 percent in the first two months.

Industrial output, which accounts for about one-third of China's GDP, expanded at 7.2 percent year on year in the first two months, accelerating from 6.2 percent growth in December 2017.

Tuesday's data is the latest economic indicator to show China's economy stabilizing and improving.

Beijing-based investment bank CICC predicted a "good start" for the economy this year in a research note, citing continued industrial strength and a pick-up in demand growth.

China expects economic expansion to be around 6.5 percent this year, unchanged from 2017.
 

Klon

Junior Member
Registered Member
Repeating something is true doesn't make it so.

Please explain to me how two demographic peaks at 25-29 and 45-49 will result in a steadily aging population until 2060? By the time the first demographic reaches retirement age, the second demographic would be over 80 years old. The average life expectancy in China is only 76 years.
The old-age population will keep increasing until 2060 (same link as above).
China.png

The working-age population will decline for at least two decades. I never said anything about a stagnant economy.
China1.png
Population pyramid in 2050
Population by Age in 2050.png
 

solarz

Brigadier
I think this merits a closer look. If we define the retirement age to be 65 (which we shouldn't, since it isn't static, but it's a fair enough simplification), the first cohort will start to retire in 16 years (i.e., 2033), while the second cohort will enter retirement in 36 years (i.e., 2053). Think about the pace of medical advancements over that time frame -- especially with an increasingly enriched China able to contribute more to that research effort. Think about the breakthroughs being made in laboratories today - CRISPR, iPSCs, etc. - and run the tape forward a few decades. I don't think a 65 year old of the first cohort will be in the same state of ill-health as 65 year old of today, let alone a 65 year old of the second and subsequent cohorts.

More importantly, it is highly likely that in 30 years, the nature of the economy would have changed dramatically. Think about what the world was like in the 1980's. Imagine the kind of revolution Machine Learning would have on the economy.

Already, China's economy have shifted dramatically with the introduction of Taobao and Alipay. The remarkable thing in 2018 is not how many Chinese are retired, but how many of them are able to afford retirement life!
 
Top