Correct wording is " I want to see that the Cinese are more careful with money, because it paint a better picture in my mind about the chinese" : )
And what is the reality is diferent.
Chinese Economics Thread
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Correct wording is " I want to see that the Cinese are more careful with money, because it paint a better picture in my mind about the chinese" : )
And what is the reality is diferent.
WaPo is quoting Mizuho, while the other two pieces are based on a forecast by eMarketer. PwC is mentioned only in passing in SCMP. If you can find PwC's forecast, I'll be happy to read it. eMarketer was saying that China would overtake the USA in 2016 with 4.9 trillion dollars compared to 4.8 trillion dollars, so not the same thing as (actually contradicting) the Mizuho forecast.
There's no reason to expect anyone to challenge them or for them to issue a correction. Economic forecasts are wrong all the time. These were hardly big stories. Plus, there may be a correction somewhere that we haven't seen. As for "We're talking about huge companies evaluating mountains of global economic data", it's just as likely we're talking about one or two employees writing a report and getting it wrong. I also don't see the point of the analogy, as the height difference of the two players is obvious to everyone, which isn't the case for economic statistics.
Also, is not the same as retail sales.
Here's the link to the latest , with 2015 data. If you check section 15-1, Basic Conditions of Wholesale and Retail Trades, the number for Retail trade, Total Sales Value is 11.4 trillion yuan. I don't know if this is the right measure for "retail sales", but it seems plausible. With a 10% percent increase, the number for 2016 would be about 2 trillion dollars, or about half of household final consumption expenditure. Similarly, here's a monthly for "advance monthly sales for retail and food services" in the USA, which were 495 billion dollars in December, or about 5.9 trillion dollars in 2017 (just by multiplying by 12), which is again close to half of household final consumption expenditure. In my opinion, these numbers are plausible and are bolstered by the fact that they generally match.
If you don't stand by it, there's nothing to say.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
OK, here is PwC's article:
While it's true that economic forecasts are wrong all the time, I don't see how two large global firms could have both erroneously said that A would be larger than B by 2018 while A was much much smaller than B (a third). I've seen 10 year predictions of entire firms not pan out but I haven't seen a mistake quite like that. Generally, if they predict 2018, and it's already 2018 (Mizuho) or 2018 when it's 2015 (PwC), it's because A is very close to B and on the verge of passing it. The basketball player example and this statistic are both obvious; while an unusual definition can confound the layman like us, it cannot confuse all the professional economists at both PwC and Mizuho. I believe if they have made such an obvious mistake, competitor firms would jump on them to discredit them.
I just wanna also add that if you search for "Largest retail market in the world," Google puts the eMarketer article first and even uses its answer of China as the official Google answer. If it was wrong... a lot of people are wrong.
So if you are saying that the World Bank data that you posted is NOT the same as the retails sales that these articles are talking about, then it's an apples-to-oranges comparison. Can you post a source with the correct figures for the retail sales these articles are mentioning so we can get an apples-to-apples comparison showing that these articles are wrong? Because to me, it's apparent that China is catching up to the US on something; I'm just not sure what it is if it isn't what a layman would think retail sales market means.
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manqiangrexue
Brigadier
I literally don't understand what you're trying to say with your English, "suprise, suprise-- saved." What the hell does that mean? The only surprise here is that you spelled surprise wrong twice in a row. As for the rest of it, are you asking me a question or trying to get me to answer in a way that you'd like? If you have something to say, just say it; nobody wants to play question games with you.
The Chinese don't care what blind people like you think about them. If you think Chinese people have poor spending habits, that's your own ignorance. And what you wrote is not the "correct wording" for anything. LOL
Thanks. However, that's a press release with very few details. Crucially, it doesn't mention what the total number is or will be (for China) or the methods and assumptions used. If you have the full report, that would be great.
Ok, you can't believe they could be wrong and I can. Like I mentioned above, the eMarketer forecast (overtaking in 2016 at 4.9 trillion dollars) contradicts the Mizuho one (2018 at 5.8 trillion dollars). I don't know what numbers PwC had in mind. Let's drop this part because indirect discussion of the issue won't be able to resolve anything.
That's clearly an automated feature, so it really doesn't mean anything. Incidentally, for me the first result was and some others after refreshing.
I never said that it was the same. I posted the household final consumption expenditure data because, by its definition, it should include retail sales, and other things (at least services).
This means that when the retail sales number is supposed to be much larger, that's a contradiction, and I think the problem is with the retail sales data.
Here are some links.
My point here is that household final consumption expenditure is a key economic statistic and it's thus unlikely to be wrong. On the other hand, retail sales is a rarely used statistic and I haven't been able to find an international source yet.
I posted what could be the relevant numbers in the end of my previous comment.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
I don't think that I can find the original report, but I found that this is a highly cited report as there are many articles, both Chinese and English, written based on it. This would be very unusual for an obviously incorrect professional piece.
Both the PwC article that I gave and the Mizuho chart predict that Chinese retail will overtake US retail in 2018. The eMarketer forecast put the number at 2016, but actually US growth was higher than they anticipated as they believed that the US would only be at $5.1T in 2018. Of course the numbers can vary a little because they are predictions but the trend seems to be that this statistic for China is on the cusp of overtaking this statistic for the US. What none of them say is that China is far behind the US here, which seems to be what you're saying by saying that they are flat out wrong.
While that's true, this automated feature means that the article gets an immense amount of exposure, which further means that if it contained such a blatant error it would not take long before someone pointed it out and eMarketer had to recant the article.
The wiki list uses the same statistic as was used on your world bank stat and cites the world bank as its source too. But that is a different statistic than the one mentioned by PwC, Mizuho and eMarketer, and thus, does not necessarily contradict them by nature, but only by deduction, which is limited by the knowledge of the deducer.
For the bold part, yes, the contradiction is what I'm asking you about, and while you think that it means that one statistic must be wrong, I think that the World Bank, Mizuho, PwC, as well as, of course, the China Statistical Yearbook, are all very reliable sources and I think that none of them are wrong and none of them contradict each other (small fluctuations in future prediction not counting as contradictions). I think this "contradiction" is the result of our perception and inability to understand some subtlety in the economics being discussed among these articles.
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One more time, here is my position.
1.
- C (consumption) is normally the largest GDP component in the economy, consisting of private expenditures in the economy (household final consumption expenditure). These personal expenditures fall under one of the following categories: durable goods, nondurable goods, and services. Examples include food, rent, jewelry, gasoline, and medical expenses, but not the purchase of new housing.
2. The source of the issue is probably the category called "total retail sales of consumer goods", which sounds very much like "retail sales", but is only used in China. It remains unclear to which internationally used category it's supposed to correspond. The value of this category was 36.6 trillion yuan, of which 32.7 trillion yuan was for "the retail sales of goods" (the rest was catering). That is 5.2 trillion dollars at the current exchange rate. Assuming another year of 10% growth, that brings the 2018 number to 5.7 trillion dollars, very close to the Mizuho number. This is why I think those reports are using this statistic.
3. The apparent contradiction is there in the Chinese data; there is no issue of World Bank data being different. For 2015, total retail sales of consumer goods were 30 trillion yuan (click on ), while final consumption expenditures were 36 trillion yuan, of which household consumption expenditures were 26 trillion yuan and the rest was government consumption ( 3-13 and 3-14). Again, I don't know how there could have been more retail sales than there was private consumption, particularly when this also includes services.
4. About the idea that these reports can't be (or are very unlikely to be) wrong, here's a by A.T. Kierney that says that in 2016 China's total retail sales were 3 trillion USD. This does contradict the other reports, yet there have been no call outs or retractions. Furthermore, here's a PwC that measures market size by household consumption (11.5 trillion USD for the USA and 3.4 trillion USD for China in 2013, page 8) and gives the food and grocery sales numbers (page 11) as 854 billion USD for the USA and 318 billion USD for China, with predictions for 2018 of 960 billion USD and 581 billion USD, respectively. This by Deloitte says that American retail sales in 2016 were 3.7 trillion. Basically, the numbers are all over the place and I don't think the ones we're discussing have been shown to be right.
Actually, I found an in Forbes that questions the Mizuho numbers on basically the same grounds as I do, so it's not even true that there's been no skepticism.
5. I already posted what could be the "correct" numbers for retail sales.
I'd appreciate it if any reply would address these points.
Jura The idiot
General
If there is no spending power, but there is high profit then the companies profit shown as saving in the general ledger of the national economy .
My point is simple: the spending /saving diferences due to different political /economical/development characteristic on the national economy level, NOT due to nationality/skin colour/ language.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Here is the China statistic which detail Retail sales do rough calc monthly sales is about 3 trillion yuan X12/6.4= 5.7 trillion dollar
Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods in July 2017
National Bureau of Statistics of China2017-08-15 13:25
In July 2017, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 2,961.0 billion yuan, up by 10.4 percent year-on-year (nominal growth rate. The real growth rate was 9.6 percent. The follows are nominal growth rates if there’s no additional explanation). Of the total, the retail sales of consumer goods of units above designated size was 1,281.3 billion yuan, increased 8.6 percent.
From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 20,197.8 billion yuan, up by 10.4 percent year-on-year. Of the total, the retail sales of consumer goods of units above designated size was 8,982.1 billion yuan, increased 8.7 percent.
In terms of different areas, the retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas was 2,547.4 billion yuan in July, up by 10.2 percent year-on-year; while that in rural areas was 413.6 billion yuan, up by 11.7 percent year-on-year. From January to July, the retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas was 17,325.9 billion yuan, up by 10.1 percent year-on-year; while that in rural areas was 2,871.9 billion yuan, up by 12.2 percent.
In terms of different consumption patterns, the catering services in July gained 320.4 billion yuan, up by 11.1 percent, year-on-year. The retail sales of goods gained 2,640.6 billion yuan, up by 10.3 percent. From January to July, the catering services gained 2,175.0 billion yuan, up by 11.2 percent, year-on-year; the retail sales of goods gained 18,022.8 billion yuan, up by 10.3 percent.
The retail sales amount of goods of units above designated size in July was 1,200.4 billion yuan, up by 8.6 percent year-on-year. From January to July, the retail sales amount of goods of units above designated size was 8,447.8 billion yuan, up by 8.7 percent year-on-year.
From January to July, the national online retail sales of goods and services was 3.661.7 billion yuan, increased 33.7 percent year-on-year. Of which, the online retail sales of physical goods was 2,782.0 billion yuan, increased 28.9 percent, accounting for 13.8 percent of the total retail sales of consumer goods; of the online retail sales of physical goods, food, clothing and other commodities went up by 24.9, 21.9 and 31.7 percent respectively.
Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods in July
Annotations:
1. Explanatory Notes
Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods: refers to the sales of physical commodity or the income of catering services sold or provided by enterprises (units) to individuals, social organizations for non-production and non-operation purposes.
Online Retail Sales: refers to the sales of goods and services got through public online trading platform (including self-built websites and third-party platform). Goods and services include physical goods and non-physical goods (such as virtual product, services).
The total retail sales of consumer goods includes online retail sales of physical goods, excludes online retail sales of non-physical goods.
2.Statistical Coverage
The corporate enterprises, industrial activity units or self-employed individuals which retail goods or provide catering services. Enterprises (units) above designated size refer to those wholesale enterprises (units) with an annual revenue from primary business of 20 million yuan and above, those retail enterprises (units) with an annual revenue from primary business of 5 million yuan and above, and those hotel and catering enterprises (units) with an annual revenue from primary business of 2 million yuan and above.
3. Survey Methods
All enterprises (units) above designated size are surveyed, while the data of enterprises (units) below designated size are collected by sampling survey.
4. Month-on-Month Figure Revision
According to the auto-revision function of the seasonal adjustment model, the growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods since July 2016 was revised. The revised figures and figures in July 2017 are as follows:
Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods in July 2017
National Bureau of Statistics of China2017-08-15 13:25
In July 2017, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 2,961.0 billion yuan, up by 10.4 percent year-on-year (nominal growth rate. The real growth rate was 9.6 percent. The follows are nominal growth rates if there’s no additional explanation). Of the total, the retail sales of consumer goods of units above designated size was 1,281.3 billion yuan, increased 8.6 percent.
From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 20,197.8 billion yuan, up by 10.4 percent year-on-year. Of the total, the retail sales of consumer goods of units above designated size was 8,982.1 billion yuan, increased 8.7 percent.
In terms of different areas, the retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas was 2,547.4 billion yuan in July, up by 10.2 percent year-on-year; while that in rural areas was 413.6 billion yuan, up by 11.7 percent year-on-year. From January to July, the retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas was 17,325.9 billion yuan, up by 10.1 percent year-on-year; while that in rural areas was 2,871.9 billion yuan, up by 12.2 percent.
In terms of different consumption patterns, the catering services in July gained 320.4 billion yuan, up by 11.1 percent, year-on-year. The retail sales of goods gained 2,640.6 billion yuan, up by 10.3 percent. From January to July, the catering services gained 2,175.0 billion yuan, up by 11.2 percent, year-on-year; the retail sales of goods gained 18,022.8 billion yuan, up by 10.3 percent.
The retail sales amount of goods of units above designated size in July was 1,200.4 billion yuan, up by 8.6 percent year-on-year. From January to July, the retail sales amount of goods of units above designated size was 8,447.8 billion yuan, up by 8.7 percent year-on-year.
From January to July, the national online retail sales of goods and services was 3.661.7 billion yuan, increased 33.7 percent year-on-year. Of which, the online retail sales of physical goods was 2,782.0 billion yuan, increased 28.9 percent, accounting for 13.8 percent of the total retail sales of consumer goods; of the online retail sales of physical goods, food, clothing and other commodities went up by 24.9, 21.9 and 31.7 percent respectively.
Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods in July
Annotations:
1. Explanatory Notes
Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods: refers to the sales of physical commodity or the income of catering services sold or provided by enterprises (units) to individuals, social organizations for non-production and non-operation purposes.
Online Retail Sales: refers to the sales of goods and services got through public online trading platform (including self-built websites and third-party platform). Goods and services include physical goods and non-physical goods (such as virtual product, services).
The total retail sales of consumer goods includes online retail sales of physical goods, excludes online retail sales of non-physical goods.
2.Statistical Coverage
The corporate enterprises, industrial activity units or self-employed individuals which retail goods or provide catering services. Enterprises (units) above designated size refer to those wholesale enterprises (units) with an annual revenue from primary business of 20 million yuan and above, those retail enterprises (units) with an annual revenue from primary business of 5 million yuan and above, and those hotel and catering enterprises (units) with an annual revenue from primary business of 2 million yuan and above.
3. Survey Methods
All enterprises (units) above designated size are surveyed, while the data of enterprises (units) below designated size are collected by sampling survey.
4. Month-on-Month Figure Revision
According to the auto-revision function of the seasonal adjustment model, the growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods since July 2016 was revised. The revised figures and figures in July 2017 are as follows:
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