Chinese Economics Thread

[PiSigma]

Yes, I do believe a transition to universal basic income or something like that will be inevitable sometime within my lifetime, and I think the CCP might actually be positioned well to implement one given the nature of the system of govt itself.





Ah I see what you mean now.

One reason I am a little doubtful about current/future developing nations using the protect-and-develop strategy that China and other developing nations have used in the past, is about whether the sheer scale of technological imbalance international inequality of technology ownership between nations may make the prospect of developing nations developing their own industry to be able to compete with the other established technological giants... very difficult if not impossible.


I imagine certain nations might be able to get there if they have the right policies of incentive and punishment aimed not only at foreign firms but also at attracting talent for their own companies, and also sheer political will and a long term vision spanning multiple decades... but I somehow feel like those nations would be more the exception than the norm.


That said, I also agree that western nations, and likely China in future, may move to oppose the protect-and-develop strategy of current developing nations in the foreseeable future. However, I see that as a secondary factor to the bigger issue of technological change/automation/and even AI making even the strategy of protect-and-develop a potentially obsolete one.

In order to have a protect and develop model, the country needs a large educated population and resources to start. There aren't that many continent sized countries left that can be self sufficient to develop their economies. Unless a EU style government forms for Africa and pool their resources, it will be hard for them to follow the protect and develop model. Same for south america.

 

[vesicles]

In order to have a protect and develop model, the country needs a large educated population and resources to start. There aren't that many continent sized countries left that can be self sufficient to develop their economies. Unless a EU style government forms for Africa and pool their resources, it will be hard for them to follow the protect and develop model. Same for south america.

Exactly! China is a unique case that can't be replicated elsewhere, except a few places like Russia, the US, Canada and AUS.

That's why what's happening in China has been considered as a miracle because nowhere else in the world and no time before in history a country can develop so fast. That's because of the unique combination of wealth of resources (material as well as human), geopolitical position and cultural background of China. It's not something that another country can simply learn and replicate.

 

[PiSigma]

Exactly! China is a unique case that can't be replicated elsewhere, except a few places like Russia, the US, Canada and AUS.

That's why what's happening in China has been considered as a miracle because nowhere else in the world and no time before in history a country can develop so fast. That's because of the unique combination of wealth of resources (material as well as human), geopolitical position and cultural background of China. It's not something that another country can simply learn and replicate.

I don't even think Canada or Australia is in the same boat as US or china. Too much land mass are completely useless, and too few people. We will always be a niche market with specialised industries and like US with primacy in everything.

India is close to meeting majority of the requirements for protect and develop, if only they can get their ducks in a row. Low literacy ( I don't buy the 60% literacy in India number, since writing ur own name is considered okay) probably close to 40%. None existent sanitation. Lack of infrastructure. And worse pollution than china is really going to slow them down.

 

[N00813]

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China is poised to dominate robotics markets sooner than expected
The numbers are staggering, but the diversity of the development is the real surprise

By

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for

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| September 8, 2017 -- 09:37 GMT (10:37 BST) | Topic:

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Faced with rising labor costs, China is making a strong move to establish itself as the world's leading manufacturer of robots.

The country is already the world's

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of industrial robots, but it's lagged behind Japan, its perennial Asian market rival, when it comes to technology development.

There are big signs that's changing rapidly. According to a

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from the International Federation of Robotics (IFR), China will triple its sales of robots by 2018. By 2019, the IFR predicts that more than 1.4 million new industrial robots will be installed in factories around the world, and China will account for 40 percent of global robotics sales.

The trend makes sense. Labor costs are rising, threatening the manufacturing base and infrastructure that turned China into an economic powerhouse. IDC predicts that China will spend

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on robotics and related services by 2020.

The government would certainly like to keep as much of that on its shores as possible. That was the thinking behind the Made in China 2025 plan. Unveiled in 2015, the plan provides a blueprint for Chinese self-sufficiency in a number of sectors, including robotics.

It seems to be working. Last month's World Robotics Conference in China brought together 300 artificial intelligence specialists and more than 150 robotics enterprises from around the world. Chinese automation applicable to fields like healthcare, transportation, and fulfillment was on display alongside the latest industrial robots for both heavy and collaborative manufacturing.

You would expect Chinese firms to dominate a trade show held in Beijing. But signs of China's coming domination in robotics are visible elsewhere.

As reported by

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, about 90 percent of the personal robots on display at the IFA consumer electronics trade show, which just wrapped up in Berlin, were developed and manufactured by Chinese companies. That's especially surprising considering Japan, which has an aging population, has been pursuing personal robotics especially vigorously.

In the U.S., The Robotic Industries Association (RIA), the industry's trade group in North America, just announced that

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, China's largest robot supplier, has joined RIA as its first Chinese member.

"We sought out a membership with RIA because we recognized that if we are to expand in North America and other countries, it's important to have a relationship with an organization that can offer the support and connections we need to achieve our growth goals," said Dr. Daokui Qu, CEO and Founder of Siasun.

It's another sign of the rising technological influence of Chinese firms, and the large role the country is poised to play in an automated future.

 

[antiterror13]

I don't even think Canada or Australia is in the same boat as US or china. Too much land mass are completely useless, and too few people. We will always be a niche market with specialised industries and like US with primacy in everything.

India is close to meeting majority of the requirements for protect and develop, if only they can get their ducks in a row. Low literacy ( I don't buy the 60% literacy in India number, since writing ur own name is considered okay) probably close to 40%. None existent sanitation. Lack of infrastructure. And worse pollution than china is really going to slow them down.

But Indian land is huge and flat so more suitable for agriculture. In fact, even India is roughly 1/3 of China landmass, but India has more suitable land for agriculture. But I agree that everything in India is way behind China. The worst part of India is that the brightest Indian people not living in the country ... i.e USA

China's agriculture is so efficient and produce most fruits, vegetable and grain in the top of the world by big margin.

Which country do you think produce the most of apples, watermelon, peach, pear, tomato, plum, kiwifruit, grapes,broccoli, lettuce, onion, cabbage, potato, spinach, carrot, pork, lambs, duck, tea, beer, etc? ... yes CHINA!

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[Equation]

In the future humanity won't be needing much land to farm. China's can always expand their vertical or indoor farming systems to grow food.

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[PiSigma]

In the future humanity won't be needing much land to farm. China's can always expand their vertical or indoor farming systems to grow food.

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As much as I like the idea of vertical farming, there are a lot of limitations.
Its really only good for vegetables and other high value produce that don't take up much room like strawberries. Try having a orange or apple plantation with it, or a wheat field. Just won't work. What it does is free up some land that would be used to grow vegetables for rice or wheat. Also it also means you need large amount of growing soil, which is highly lacking in china. And once it gets too dense, light blockage means more artificial lighting, but then this may allow more efficient growing with only blue and red light.

 

[PiSigma]

But Indian land is huge and flat so more suitable for agriculture. In fact, even India is roughly 1/3 of China landmass, but India has more suitable land for agriculture. But I agree that everything in India is way behind China. The worst part of India is that the brightest Indian people not living in the country ... i.e USA

China's agriculture is so efficient and produce most fruits, vegetable and grain in the top of the world by big margin.

Which country do you think produce the most of apples, watermelon, peach, pear, tomato, plum, kiwifruit, grapes,broccoli, lettuce, onion, cabbage, potato, spinach, carrot, pork, lambs, duck, tea, beer, etc? ... yes CHINA!

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Very true. India's client being tropical is also more suitable for agriculture. 2/3 of china is hamalyan or desert. Only 7% of aratible land is in China and shrinking.

India also wastes a lot of produce due to lack of cold storage. And of course ancient and inefficient farming practice's.

I would argue China also have inefficient farming practice's and is catching up gradually. If u look at production of foodstuff per acre in china and compare to USA, china is still behind quite a bit. They produce the most because they have the most farmers and most demand. Need to compare production per acre for same crop to get a true comparison.

Even agriculture is becoming high tech and require educated people. Like news a couple of days ago of farmers using pre programmed drones for spraying pesticide or fertiliser which free up time to do other work. Or looking on up the newest farming practice's. In India, most farmers can't even read, so they are stuck doing things the old way.

 

[antiterror13]

Very true. India's client being tropical is also more suitable for agriculture. 2/3 of china is hamalyan or desert. Only 7% of aratible land is in China and shrinking.

India also wastes a lot of produce due to lack of cold storage. And of course ancient and inefficient farming practice's.

I would argue China also have inefficient farming practice's and is catching up gradually. If u look at production of foodstuff per acre in china and compare to USA, china is still behind quite a bit. They produce the most because they have the most farmers and most demand. Need to compare production per acre for same crop to get a true comparison.

Even agriculture is becoming high tech and require educated people. Like news a couple of days ago of farmers using pre programmed drones for spraying pesticide or fertiliser which free up time to do other work. Or looking on up the newest farming practice's. In India, most farmers can't even read, so they are stuck doing things the old way.

According to CIA Factbook, actually China has 11.3% arable land which is roughly 1.1 millions km^2 ... thats huge!! .. .. almost as big as the whole landmass of UK, Germany and France combined or roughly 3x the size of the whole Japan

latest CIA factbook .. see section Land Use

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China also aggressively converting a lot of land into forest, some of it from arable land.

China's forest cover is almost 23% now .. which is over 2 millions km^2 .. only 4 countries have more forest than China (Russia, Canada, Brazil and the USA). China forest area is roughly 3x of India

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From 1990 to 2010, China had added 500,000 km^2 (almost the size of the UK and Germany combined) of forest

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[plawolf]

To those lamenting the closing door of the cheap labour based economic development model, fear not, there is already a next generation economic development and uplift model and vehicle operational, and that is China's One Belt One Road.

Pakistan will be the first to benefit, with massive capital and technological investment from China for mutual sustained economic integration and development.

With Chinese capital and technology, Pakistan should be able to achieve the critical mass needed for automated manufacturing. Indeed, it would make a lot of sense for China to develop Pakistan into a high tech manufacturing and logistics hub to help drive future phases on OBOR development.

However, China would do well not to repeat the grave strategic mistakes of the west and offshore its manufacturing economy. Developing Pakistan and others should always act as supplements to China's own manufacturing, never replacements. That will also help to lock those countries and economies into the broader Chinese economic system to prevent them from turning into direct competitors or getting pulled into the orbit of Chinese rivals, as Ukrain and other former Soviet block nations have been turned against Russia for example.

The move to a services based economy should be based on the strong foundations of primary agriculture and secondary manufacturing, not at the expense of the former two.

As China grows richer and greyer, the automation and robotics development trends should ensure Chinese manufacturing output does not suffer from a natural decline in workers. It is in agriculture where it will have to make an important choice on how best to proceed.

China's complex and piecemeal farmland geography makes American style mechanised farming unsuitable, so either China will need to invest significantly to develop and mass produce far more complex and capable agricultural robots; or it can take the easy path of importing low skilled agricultural and other workers from abroad, as the west has done.

Both approaches carry significant risks and challenges, and China may well take a hybrid approach of using short term foreign labour to sustain agriculture while developing replacement farming robots and/or developing suitable areas coming into OBOR into bread baskets with American style mass scale mechanised farming with existing technology.

Pakistan actually has the potential to meet all of those needs in the short to medium run.

China can simultaneously develop part of Pakistan into highly automated manufacturing centres specialising in the tools and machinery OBOR will need; while at the same time investing to mechanise farming.

Massive investments in education will help create the engineers, scientists and technicians needed to take over from the first generation of Chinese who will build, set-up and run all these new infrastructure and plants initially.

For those Pakistanis not wishing to study to university level and beyond to take up these new high tech jobs, primary and secondary Chinese languages education classes could give them the language skills to go to China and help full the projected medium term labour shortages before robotics fully takes root.

The remittances they send home would help lift millions out of poverty, and provide much of the private capital for future development to replace Chinese state capital, as similar things had done for Chinese migrant workers and western regions. And like Chinese migrant workers, these foreign migrant workers are not expected to stay and put down roots, but rather to make their modest fortunes and then return home to help develop those impoverished regions.

That will not only drive sustainable economic growth and fairer distribution of the fruits of economic developed (as opposed to the counter London model, where one city or region becomes over-developed and sucks in a disproportionate share of the capital and talent from the nation and economy to the detriment of everywhere else and becomes too crowded and inefficient itself in turn); it should also help China avoid most of the racial and social divisions and simmering tensions experienced in the US and large parts of Europe from large ethnic minority 'ghettos'.

If China can make Pakistan a stand out success, it will not only create a powerful ally that can counter India on its own, but also serve as a western-media-propaganda-war-proof case study to have the countries in the region and beyond come knocking down China's door to be part of OBOR and become part of the new robotics driven world economy without needing the vast captical and technology needed to achieve such a status itself.