Chinese Economics Thread

Blackstone

Brigadier
My own layman's forcast is Japan will remain a great power but on a smaller scale as we know it. Japan has an aging population but her population will eventually stabilize and taper out in the near future.

Yes, no doubt they will be a less populated country for sure however I believe the population will somewhat stabilize once the old timers are gone.

The transitional period will be difficult especially considering the social and economic cost and impact as a whole since elderly people generally contribute less to the productivity and economic power of a nation.
Japan isn't a great power now, and will only diminish in decades to come. By great power, I use the dictionary definition-
Great Pow·er
NOUN
  1. a nation that has a far-reaching political, social, economic, and usually military influence internationally

I heard a lecture by David Kang (Univ. of Southern California) on projections of Japanese population at about 80 million by 2050, which is about the population of a united Korea. And if it imports people from around the world to keep its population at current level, then it will cease to be "Japan."

1quote]China to some extent will face not too dissimilar issues because of the 1 child policy where an entire generation got wiped out however the impact will be less severe because unlike Japan, China is still an emerging economy and even then on a much more recent scale.
China's problem is more social but social problems when large enough can certainly affect the economic sector. The effects of having a severely imbalanced gender gap with the additional 40-50 million single men in a relatively close age group with no prospect of marriage is concerning.[/QUOTE]
The one-child policy induced gender gap might be overstated, because some recent academic papers on the subject point to the "discovery" of tens of millions of girl babies who weren't reported to the authorities. We obviously need more data to make definitive conclusions, but China's gender imbalance may not be as bad as previously thought.

On Chinese population, I've read/watched more than ten papers/presentations on the topic, and they say Chinese population probably would eventually settle to around 800m to a billion souls. That seems to be the current consensus. So, let's take the lower number for illustration purposes. Even at 800 million, China is decisively larger and with more available human resource to sustain national development than everyone else not named India. It's massive, world-leading investment into robotics and automation will also counter the negatives of losing 300 to 400 million people. On the positive side, fewer people and larger GDP means greater per capital income for the Chinese people to consume goods and services from all over the world.
 

broadsword

Brigadier
Its all based on perception. So they only asked wumaos

If you were referring to the Report, then I am surprised that it was not called Global Competitiveness Perception Report. From their website:
The GCI includes statistical data from internationally recognized agencies, notably the International Monetary Fund (IMF); the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization; and the World Health Organization. It also includes data from the World Economic Forum’s annual Executive Opinion Survey to capture concepts that require a more qualitative assessment, or for which comprehensive and internationally comparable statistical data are not available.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
The old imperialist is not so happy that the Mongolian are fully assimilated in Chinese family.So they try to put spin of Mongolian identity. Classic case of Divide Et Impera. I guess it is no surprise that the inner Mongolian choose China, all they have to do just look across the border and see failing state . I guess when the Mongolian state was created they ask the banner of inner Mongolian to join in but they refused and stick with China wise choice in hindsight.
I don't see anything wrong having Mongolian identity while at the same time have Chinese identity.
The Han themselves are not single race and each region has very proud identity
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Inner Mongolia has become China’s model of assimilation
But Chinese Mongolians are still asserting their identity

20170603_CNP003_0.jpg

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Jun 1st 2017| HOHHOT AND WEST UJIMQIN
BAYIN was three when he moved from the eastern grasslands of Inner Mongolia to Chifeng, a city of some 1m people. Like hundreds of thousands of ethnic Mongolian pastoralists forced to settle by the government, his family has gone from rural yurt to urban block of flats within a generation. Bayin, who is 32, moves seamlessly between staccato Mongolian and tonal Mandarin. In many ways he exemplifies the successful assimilation of China’s 6m ethnic Mongolians, most of them in Inner Mongolia in China’s north.

Yet Bayin lives largely within a Mongolian world. He designs Mongolian robes for a living and wore them to get married in 2012; of his 300 or so wedding guests only a handful were Han, the ethnic group that makes up more than 90% of China’s population. His daughter attends a Mongolian-language kindergarten. He likes to watch videos of Mongolian life in the 1950s.

The Chinese government has long struggled to bring the country’s borderlands under control. It took a decade for the Communist Party to subdue Yunnan in the southwest and Tibet after it came to power in 1949. In Tibet and in the far western province of Xinjiang ethnic tensions still sometimes flare into violence; both have separatist movements that have been brutally suppressed. Ethnic relations have not always been easy in Inner Mongolia either: Mongolians frequently clashed with the authorities until the early 1990s.

In recent decades, however, the province has been largely quiescent. It does not have a separatist movement—a surprise given that Mongolia, an independent, democratic country populated by 3m people of the same ethnicity, lies just to the north. Local gripes are more often expressed in economic terms than in ethnic ones. It helps that many ethnic Mongolians are visually indistinguishable from Han Chinese, says Enze Han of the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. They are far more likely to marry a Han than minorities in western China. Many more youths leave the province to find work elsewhere too. Small wonder that the Communist Party is trying to replicate at high speed in Tibet and Xinjiang policies that have helped it subdue Inner Mongolia over many decades.

Damned if you Xanadu

Inner Mongolia’s integration is partly historical. Kublai Khan, grandson of Genghis Khan, founded a dynasty in 1271 that bound it to China. Geographical proximity to Beijing meant exchanges were frequent. Tribal divisions and the dispersal of the population hampered resistance to Chinese authority. Inner Mongolia constitutes 12% of China’s territory, but hosts less than 2% of its population.

Government policies suppressed Mongol identity. Han migration started in the 19th century. The native population was already in the minority by 1949; now only 20% of people in the province are Mongolian. The region suffered especially severe violence in the Cultural Revolution—up to 100,000 people died, by some reckonings. Buddhism, which was strongly rooted in Inner Mongolia, was crushed, and most temples destroyed. At the sprawling monastery of Da Zhao in the provincial capital of Hohhot, tourists now outnumber devotees (nevertheless, in case of problems, a SWAT team waits around the corner).

Teaching local children in Mandarin, a policy which the party is now pursuing with gusto in Tibet and Xinjiang, started early in Inner Mongolia too. All young Mongolians speak Mandarin—far fewer understand Mongolian. So comfortable is the party with the dominance of Mandarin that it has allowed Mongolian-language education to grow: the share of primary and middle-school pupils taught in Mongolian actually increased from 10% in 2005 to 13% in 2015.

Money has helped ethnic Mongolians come to terms with the Chinese Communist Party: GDP per person is $10,000 a year in Inner Mongolia, compared with $4,000 in Mongolia the country. Such riches are the result of a deliberate government strategy to exploit minerals, particularly coal, and build infrastructure (another measure repeated recently in western China).

The question is whether the model of assimilation and appeasement is sustainable. Economic pressures are growing. Many Mongolians feel excluded from the province’s overall prosperity. City folk, who are disproportionately Han, earn twice as much as herders. Even in rural areas, the energy-intensive and heavily polluting industries that fuelled the region’s boom largely benefit Han companies; few miners are Mongolian.

Mining companies show scant regard for grass or goats and consume lots of water. The water table has dropped by 100 metres in some places, according to Greenpeace, an NGO. New mines were curtailed in 2011, when a Han driver deliberately ran over and killed a Mongolian herder, sparking protests. The provincial government also soothed pastoralists with subsidies.

But Tsetseg, a 36-year-old herder near West Ujimqin, close to the scene of the killing, says most subsidies now exist in name only. Desertification and climate change mean there is less grass for her goats to graze on, so she increasingly has to buy corn as well. With rising feed costs and falling meat prices, her family has little hope of ever repaying the 100,000 yuan ($15,000) they owe. Tsetseg’s economic woes sometimes assume ethnic overtones. The area was awash with Han police after the protests in 2011, she says. She “would not agree” to her son marrying a Han: “There aren’t many Mongols now. When they marry a Han we lose them: we have to keep our bloodline.”

Bodi, who is 65, lives in a community of settled herders in Bailingmiao, an hour’s drive from Hohhot. His flat is comfortable, he says, but he hates the noise of cars, the fried (Chinese) food and eating meat raised by someone else. His neighbours, who are in their thirties, say they miss the grasslands, but their 12-year-old daughter is happy “anywhere where there is Wi-Fi”.

The government is emboldened by the area’s tranquillity. This year it is marking Inner Mongolia’s 70th anniversary as an “autonomous region” with months of “traditional” sports, music and other events. Beyond government-sponsored festivities, however, there are signs of a quiet resurgence of Mongolian identity. A 20-something in West Ujimqin whose upbringing was so Chinese that he goes by his Chinese name recently started a line of clothing adorned with local Mongolian monuments and Mongolian script that he himself cannot read. Social media have helped Mongolians from different parts of the province get in touch; Mongolian-language apps, some aimed at adults wishing to learn, are helping revive the language.

Ties with the country of Mongolia have grown too. Restaurants in Hohhot advertise chefs and singers from Mongolia. Like many Chinese-Mongolians, Bayin talks of his visit to Mongolia with awe: “Everyone there is Mongolian—even the leaders.”

This article appeared in the China section of the print edition under the headline "Herding mentality"

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PiSigma

"the engineer"
The old imperialist is not so happy that the Mongolian are fully assimilated in Chinese family.So they try to put spin of Mongolian identity. Classic case of Divide Et Impera. I guess it is no surprise that the inner Mongolian choose China, all they have to do just look across the border and see failing state . I guess when the Mongolian state was created they ask the banner of inner Mongolian to join in but they refused and stick with China wise choice in hindsight.
I don't see anything wrong having Mongolian identity while at the same time have Chinese identity.
The Han themselves are not single race and each region has very proud identity
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Inner Mongolia has become China’s model of assimilation
But Chinese Mongolians are still asserting their identity

20170603_CNP003_0.jpg

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Jun 1st 2017| HOHHOT AND WEST UJIMQIN
BAYIN was three when he moved from the eastern grasslands of Inner Mongolia to Chifeng, a city of some 1m people. Like hundreds of thousands of ethnic Mongolian pastoralists forced to settle by the government, his family has gone from rural yurt to urban block of flats within a generation. Bayin, who is 32, moves seamlessly between staccato Mongolian and tonal Mandarin. In many ways he exemplifies the successful assimilation of China’s 6m ethnic Mongolians, most of them in Inner Mongolia in China’s north.

Yet Bayin lives largely within a Mongolian world. He designs Mongolian robes for a living and wore them to get married in 2012; of his 300 or so wedding guests only a handful were Han, the ethnic group that makes up more than 90% of China’s population. His daughter attends a Mongolian-language kindergarten. He likes to watch videos of Mongolian life in the 1950s.

The Chinese government has long struggled to bring the country’s borderlands under control. It took a decade for the Communist Party to subdue Yunnan in the southwest and Tibet after it came to power in 1949. In Tibet and in the far western province of Xinjiang ethnic tensions still sometimes flare into violence; both have separatist movements that have been brutally suppressed. Ethnic relations have not always been easy in Inner Mongolia either: Mongolians frequently clashed with the authorities until the early 1990s.

In recent decades, however, the province has been largely quiescent. It does not have a separatist movement—a surprise given that Mongolia, an independent, democratic country populated by 3m people of the same ethnicity, lies just to the north. Local gripes are more often expressed in economic terms than in ethnic ones. It helps that many ethnic Mongolians are visually indistinguishable from Han Chinese, says Enze Han of the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. They are far more likely to marry a Han than minorities in western China. Many more youths leave the province to find work elsewhere too. Small wonder that the Communist Party is trying to replicate at high speed in Tibet and Xinjiang policies that have helped it subdue Inner Mongolia over many decades.

Damned if you Xanadu

Inner Mongolia’s integration is partly historical. Kublai Khan, grandson of Genghis Khan, founded a dynasty in 1271 that bound it to China. Geographical proximity to Beijing meant exchanges were frequent. Tribal divisions and the dispersal of the population hampered resistance to Chinese authority. Inner Mongolia constitutes 12% of China’s territory, but hosts less than 2% of its population.

Government policies suppressed Mongol identity. Han migration started in the 19th century. The native population was already in the minority by 1949; now only 20% of people in the province are Mongolian. The region suffered especially severe violence in the Cultural Revolution—up to 100,000 people died, by some reckonings. Buddhism, which was strongly rooted in Inner Mongolia, was crushed, and most temples destroyed. At the sprawling monastery of Da Zhao in the provincial capital of Hohhot, tourists now outnumber devotees (nevertheless, in case of problems, a SWAT team waits around the corner).

Teaching local children in Mandarin, a policy which the party is now pursuing with gusto in Tibet and Xinjiang, started early in Inner Mongolia too. All young Mongolians speak Mandarin—far fewer understand Mongolian. So comfortable is the party with the dominance of Mandarin that it has allowed Mongolian-language education to grow: the share of primary and middle-school pupils taught in Mongolian actually increased from 10% in 2005 to 13% in 2015.

Money has helped ethnic Mongolians come to terms with the Chinese Communist Party: GDP per person is $10,000 a year in Inner Mongolia, compared with $4,000 in Mongolia the country. Such riches are the result of a deliberate government strategy to exploit minerals, particularly coal, and build infrastructure (another measure repeated recently in western China).

The question is whether the model of assimilation and appeasement is sustainable. Economic pressures are growing. Many Mongolians feel excluded from the province’s overall prosperity. City folk, who are disproportionately Han, earn twice as much as herders. Even in rural areas, the energy-intensive and heavily polluting industries that fuelled the region’s boom largely benefit Han companies; few miners are Mongolian.

Mining companies show scant regard for grass or goats and consume lots of water. The water table has dropped by 100 metres in some places, according to Greenpeace, an NGO. New mines were curtailed in 2011, when a Han driver deliberately ran over and killed a Mongolian herder, sparking protests. The provincial government also soothed pastoralists with subsidies.

But Tsetseg, a 36-year-old herder near West Ujimqin, close to the scene of the killing, says most subsidies now exist in name only. Desertification and climate change mean there is less grass for her goats to graze on, so she increasingly has to buy corn as well. With rising feed costs and falling meat prices, her family has little hope of ever repaying the 100,000 yuan ($15,000) they owe. Tsetseg’s economic woes sometimes assume ethnic overtones. The area was awash with Han police after the protests in 2011, she says. She “would not agree” to her son marrying a Han: “There aren’t many Mongols now. When they marry a Han we lose them: we have to keep our bloodline.”

Bodi, who is 65, lives in a community of settled herders in Bailingmiao, an hour’s drive from Hohhot. His flat is comfortable, he says, but he hates the noise of cars, the fried (Chinese) food and eating meat raised by someone else. His neighbours, who are in their thirties, say they miss the grasslands, but their 12-year-old daughter is happy “anywhere where there is Wi-Fi”.

The government is emboldened by the area’s tranquillity. This year it is marking Inner Mongolia’s 70th anniversary as an “autonomous region” with months of “traditional” sports, music and other events. Beyond government-sponsored festivities, however, there are signs of a quiet resurgence of Mongolian identity. A 20-something in West Ujimqin whose upbringing was so Chinese that he goes by his Chinese name recently started a line of clothing adorned with local Mongolian monuments and Mongolian script that he himself cannot read. Social media have helped Mongolians from different parts of the province get in touch; Mongolian-language apps, some aimed at adults wishing to learn, are helping revive the language.

Ties with the country of Mongolia have grown too. Restaurants in Hohhot advertise chefs and singers from Mongolia. Like many Chinese-Mongolians, Bayin talks of his visit to Mongolia with awe: “Everyone there is Mongolian—even the leaders.”

This article appeared in the China section of the print edition under the headline "Herding mentality"

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The economist used to be a good magazine. Now it is just another propaganda mouthpiece. The quality of its articles have gone down faster and faster in the last decade.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
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Trump's climate pullback opens door to Chinese leadership
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June 1, 2017


WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump's pullback from a global climate pact could accelerate China's unlikely ascent toward leadership in stemming global warming and promoting green technology, and on global matters far removed from the environment.

Trump's announcement that the U.S. would leave the Paris accord immediately sparked international criticism, deepening perceptions of an America in retreat after recent reversals on free trade and foreign aid.

China may be poised to fill the breach. The world's largest emitter of man-made carbon dioxide, considered a top cause of climate change, is already making rapid progress toward its Paris goal of stopping emissions growth by 2030. It has overtaken the U.S. in transitioning to renewable energy, generating a fifth of its electricity from renewable sources. The U.S. only sources about 13 percent of its electricity from renewables.

And although China remains heavily reliant on coal and pollution is a persistent problem for its 1.3 billion citizens, the country's communist rulers say they're determined to institute fundamental change. That commitment has much of the world now looking to Beijing, which wants to assert itself on the global stage.

"They were doing this before Trump was elected," said Carolyn Bartholomew, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission chairwoman. Criticizing Trump in a personal capacity, and not on behalf of the bipartisan panel that advises Congress, she added: "He's just making it easier for them by pulling the U.S. back from the position of global responsibility."

China was positioning itself even before Trump officially declared his intentions in Thursday's Rose Garden speech. It said this week it would work with the European Union to uphold the agreement, whatever Washington decided, with Premier Li Keqiang and EU officials set to discuss the matter Friday in Brussels.

Even potential U.S. partners reached out across the Pacific.

Gov. Jerry Brown of California, America's largest state economy, said he'll travel to China this week to build foreign support for carbon-cutting efforts. Such alliances "build momentum for a clean-energy future," Brown told The Associated Press in an interview.

China's emergence as a new, alternative unifying force is hardly limited to environment. As the Trump administration has stepped back from America's traditional role of dominance on trade and development, China has filled the vacuum, expanding its ever-growing footprint across the globe on everything from new roads and ports to bank loans and energy projects.

To Washington's chagrin, China last year set up its own development bank to meet needs left unfilled by U.S.-led institutions like the World Bank. Last month, President Xi Jinping hosted more than 20 world leaders for a show case of its economic initiative to build infrastructure linking Asia and Europe. Earlier this year, Xi made a high-profile speech in Davos, Switzerland, embracing at least the idea of an economic globalization that Western leaders like Trump are increasingly fleeing.

By contrast, Trump has pulled the United States out of President Barack Obama's ambitious Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade deal that would have spanned a dozen nations from the U.S. to Chile to Japan. China wouldn't have been privy to the deal. Trump also is proposing sharp cuts to U.S. budgets for humanitarian and development assistance for the world's poorer nations.

On climate, Beijing is taking action. It recently canceled construction of more than 100 new coal-fired power plants and plans to invest at least $360 billion in green-energy projects by the end of the decade. Its consumption of coal fell in 2016 for a third consecutive year. It could meet its 2030 target a decade early.

China's willingness is largely driven by domestic imperatives: growing popular dismay about air pollution, deteriorating water quality, and soil contamination from runaway industrialization. China still accounts for about half of global coal consumption.

Obama's effort to engage China's Xi on climate issues helped spur the change. A pre-Paris agreement between the two nations — the world's two largest emitters — galvanized international action that culminated in the final deal endorsed by nearly 200 governments. By withdrawing, Trump puts the U.S. with Nicaragua and Syria as the only nations outside the accord.


After three decades of rapid economic growth, China is assuming a mantle of leadership in the Asia-Pacific and beyond. That speaks not just to its leaders' desire to modernize the nation, but also for global recognition and a re-emergence from the "humiliations" suffered during colonial rule and war during the 19th and 20th centuries.

The re-emergence, however, has spooked neighbors as China wields growing economic and military clout. It also has fueled concerns of strategic rivalry with the United States that could end up in conflict.

Still, countries in Asia and beyond also are seizing opportunities of doing ever bigger business with China's growing economy, destined to become the world's largest. China is finding willing partners not just in the developing world, but also in the West. And with economic cooperation comes greater influence.

China is just getting started on the massive environmental work needed in the next decades. While it tops the world in the amount of energy it sources from solar and wind, its economy remains reliant on energy-intensive, intensely polluting industry. It is "both a leader and a laggard" in addressing climate change, said Sarah Ladislaw, an energy expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The shift to renewables is making them more affordable, even if China's technology lags that of cutting-edge America and Europe.

And while China's commitment keeps the Paris deal alive, it could struggle without U.S. support to persuade the rest of the world to live up to its promises.

Of China, Ladislaw said: "I just don't know how they can single-handedly show enough leadership to do that."

I like how even the most positive news about China has to come with a conniving sentence at the end where they don't believe China can persuade not just other foreign leaders but other western nations as well. Have they forgot about how they all jumped at the chance to join China led AIIB even after the US told them NOT to? Another sour grape writer having to eat humble pie. :D
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
And i like the fact Western reporters love to mention China is the world's biggest carbon dioxide emitter but never mention per capita she's far from the top (59th), plus the fact most of the CO2 were produced in the manufacturing in which most of the production go to the rich countries
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
The only reason why they're saying China will be the leader now is to scare the US to embracing the Paris deal. Americans are obsessed with being Number One in everything and that's what they're driving at. What's wrong with any other country taking the lead on the environment unless the motivation has nothing to do with the environment? Remember how Obama when running for President he said he was going to be the Green President? Then when he became President, he basically did nothing but sabotage green technology because it was China with cheaper alternatives that was going to make all the money to where Obama thought it was going to be the new technological revolution that the US was going to lead hence make all the money. So what's wrong with any other country taking the lead if saving the environment was at the heart of it?

Cheaper alternatives means more people and countries can afford green technology and thus lessen the environmental dangers. That's if they really cared about achieving those things. But the fact is since Obama slapped tariffs on China because even though the US had newer technologies, it was more expensive and still not cost effective compared to the cheaper alternatives. The real objective was to scare the world over climate change to force an agreement to meet certain standards to which then countries around the world would have to buy new green tech to meet those standards if they wanted to maintain their industrial economies. New green tech that Obama thought the US and other Western countries were going to be the only suppliers and thus they would reap all the economic rewards.

The irony is the Western pro-Paris deal side has spent so much time trying to discredit China in general as untrustworthy, Trump used it against them in his excuse to pull out.
 

Lethe

Captain
Not sure where to put this, but here seems as good a place as any given some of the other material posted:

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Despite the somewhat inflammatory title and suspicious timing, I think it is a fair and interesting article.
 
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Blackstone

Brigadier
I don't think Japan has ever been a great power .... you may confuse yourself of great power and cruel/evil power during WW II
We need a common "great power" standard for effective communications, and the dictionary is a good choice. By that standard, Japan was indeed a great power before WW2.

Great Pow·er
NOUN
  1. a nation that has a far-reaching political, social, economic, and usually military influence internationally
 
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