Chinese Economics Thread

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
interesting just today they report that India growth fell to 6.1% even with socalled engineered Index Anyway here is the competitiveness rank China move up while US move down
China top the lower income country competitiveness ahead of Malaysia and Thailand
U.S. Slips in Global Competitiveness Ranking as China Shoots Up
The world's biggest economy dropped and Hong Kong seized first place
by
Randy Woods
May 31, 2017, 11:12 AM PDT
The U.S. fell out of the top three in a global competitiveness ranking, as executives’ perception of the world’s biggest economy deteriorated after Donald Trump’s election.

The U.S. slipped one spot to fourth in an annual ranking published by the IMD World Competitiveness Center, a research group at IMD business school in Switzerland. It trails Hong Kong, Singapore and Switzerland. The U.S. last took top spot in the 2015 ranking.

The results are based on 261 indicators, with about two-thirds coming from so-called “hard data,” gathered mainly last year, such as employment and trade statistics. The balance came from more than 6,250 executive-opinion surveys conducted this year. The report ranks 63 economies based on a sliding scale, with 100 being the most competitive.

The U.S. drop largely reflects survey results, as global executives questioned by IMD ranked the country lower in categories including government and business efficiency. Respondents saw a greater risk of political instability and protectionism, which offset the country’s progress in reducing unemployment and stabilizing inflation, according to the report.

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“I was puzzled about the United States, to be honest, because it’s usually pretty consistently in the top three,” said Jose Caballero, senior economist at the IMD World Competitiveness Center. “It’s obvious that there is an increasing negative perception about the country,” he said when asked whether Trump’s election factored into the drop. The survey strives to remain politically neutral, he added.

Caballero said next year’s report will provide a better look at the Trump’s impact on the country’s competitive standing, as it will include both survey results and hard data from his time in office. His administration’s efforts to roll back regulations and cut taxes also may benefit the U.S. ranking, as executives rated the government’s competency and tax regime low in a list of the American economy’s advantages.

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Meanwhile the U.S.’s closest economic rival is gaining ground. China climbed seven places to 18th overall, topping the list of countries with per-capita gross domestic product of less than $20,000, followed by Asian peers Malaysia and Thailand. Venezuela was last among 63 economies in the overall ranking, after a year marred by political upheaval and recession.
 

Quickie

Colonel
Not only is China ahead of Malaysia, it also climbs past UK, Australia and Israel. It improves by 8 runks while India drops four.

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Yup China is even ahead of Japan and Korea in term of competitiveness surprising but true

Another example of selective reporting again?

If it weren't for the heads up here, I wouldn't have known better since I didn't go through the finer details of the report and would still be thinking China is only just ahead of Malaysia and Thailand.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
China crush the currency speculator again and again. Guess they never learn their lesson "Never bet against Yuan"
This come up after the Moody downgrading what an irony
China Crushes Yuan Bears, Snubs Moody's as Currency Takes Off
Bloomberg News
May 31, 2017, 7:33 AM PDT May 31, 2017, 7:27 PM PDT

China Teaches Yuan Bears a Lesson

China is dishing out a tough lesson to currency traders and strategists alike: don’t bet against the yuan.

The currency jumped its highest level in seven months offshore, extending Wednesday’s gain of 1.2 percent, despite analyst forecasts for declines this quarter. Surging interbank rates are squeezing bears by driving up the cost of short positions.

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Friday added to the complexity of betting on future movements.

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“The Moody’s downgrade and a weaker spot rate compared to the fixing could have spurred the authorities to change the fixing mechanism and potentially intervene in the market,” said Jason Daw, Singapore-based head of emerging-market currency strategy at Societe Generale SA.

The onshore yuan gained 0.4 percent to 6.7935 per dollar at 10:18 a.m. in Shanghai, after fluctuating in a narrow band around 6.9 for most of this year. The rate in Hong Kong rose 0.2 percent, taking its gain to 2.2 percent since the Moody’s rating change on May 24. The city’s overnight deposit rate touched 65 percent on Wednesday, while the spread between the offshore and onshore exchange rates reached the widest since March.

Analysts are scrambling to adjust to the shift. Credit Agricole SA scrapped a forecast of 7.25 per dollar that’s been in place since December, replacing it on Tuesday with a year-end level of 7.05. Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. strengthened their end-2017 target to 6.95 from 7.10. Credit Suisse Group AG, United Overseas Bank Ltd. and UniCredit SpA are mulling adjustments.

State Role
Propping up the yuan has been a policy priority this year as Chinese authorities try to stem capital outflows and prevent financial shocks before an important leadership reshuffle in the ruling Communist Party in late 2017. The stakes have increased in recent weeks after a regulatory clampdown on leverage roiled domestic bond and equity markets.While the role of government intervention in the latest squeeze is unclear, people familiar with the matter have
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in recent days that Chinese banks were selling dollars both offshore and onshore, while the central bank consistently
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stronger reference rates in May than analysts predicted. The surge in interbank rates echoed similar moves in January of both this year and last that
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bears.
The People’s Bank of China didn’t immediately respond to faxed questions about the yuan on Wednesday.

Last Friday, the government said policy makers may add a “counter-cyclical factor” to the yuan’s daily fixing. Analysts
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the change would give authorities more control over the fixing and could restrain the influence of "herd" behavior in the market.

U.S. Risk
Concern over the currency being “consistently weaker” than the fixing at the end of the Chinese trading day is behind the change to the calculations, said Gao Qi, a currency strategist in Singapore at Scotiabank. He said he expects the difference between the level the yuan reaches at the end of the day and the fixing rate to narrow in future.

The central bank may also be seeking to shore up the currency before a possible interest-rate hike in the U.S, according to Fiona Lim, a senior currency analyst at Malayan Banking Bhd.

“The PBOC is probably trying to introduce more guidance into the yuan now in order to boost market confidence ahead of a prospective dollar rally,” said Lim, whose firm strengthened its year-end forecast by almost 2 percent on Wednesday. “The fixing is now less transparent and the influence of the market has been limited.”
 

Blackstone

Brigadier
Now, who would have thunk that would happen?
Why are so many people surprised? Whatever else the CCP is, it's the most competent government in the world since Deng opened China to the world. The variable was always time and not certainty of outcome. And guess what? It's still only Act I, with Acts II and III to come.

Napoleon said it best, an awake China would shake the world. The tectonic plates are only beginning to shift.
 

kwaigonegin

Colonel
The answer is simple: japan is a has-been; its best days are behind it, and the future looks grim. Its people are not having enough children, and the country has a net loss of about one million people a year. It needs to import people, but has no clue of how to peacefully assimilate different peoples. And if it ever imported enough people to sustain itself, then Japan would ceases to be "Japan."

Japan is finished as a great power.

My own layman's forcast is Japan will remain a great power but on a smaller scale as we know it. Japan has an aging population but her population will eventually stabilize and taper out in the near future.

Yes, no doubt they will be a less populated country for sure however I believe the population will somewhat stabilize once the old timers are gone.

The transitional period will be difficult especially considering the social and economic cost and impact as a whole since elderly people generally contribute less to the productivity and economic power of a nation.

China to some extent will face not too dissimilar issues because of the 1 child policy where an entire generation got wiped out however the impact will be less severe because unlike Japan, China is still an emerging economy and even then on a much more recent scale.
China's problem is more social but social problems when large enough can certainly affect the economic sector. The effects of having a severely imbalanced gender gap with the additional 40-50 million single men in a relatively close age group with no prospect of marriage is concerning.
 
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