Chinese Economics Thread

Equation

Lieutenant General
Interesting article of a comparition betwen china and japan´s historic rise from poverty and what are the similarities and diferences betwen both. I dont agree with everything it says, but IMO it says some hard truths about china´s economy.

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So the author basically ignore the big difference between a Chinese market and Japanese one. He only looks at exporting and ignoring the domestic spending in China is much larger than in Japan, plus FDI is much larger in China as well than in Japan and the US. Another China doomsayer and naysayer to get those suckered Bear investor who believes in such propaganda without doing their own research.
 

solarz

Brigadier
Interesting article of a comparition betwen china and japan´s historic rise from poverty and what are the similarities and diferences betwen both. I dont agree with everything it says, but IMO it says some hard truths about china´s economy.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

One of my university professors said that Economics was a pseudo-science. I'm inclined to agree.

Economists focus on data models (created by other economists) and build narratives centered around those data models. The end result is that they frequently fall out of touch with reality.

To see how absurd a comparison between the Chinese and Japanese economy is, we need only compare the Fukushima disaster with the Wenchuan earthquake.

When the Wenchuan earthquake killed 80,000 people, China's response was swift and powerful. Although it accepted foreign donations, it was easily capable of handling the disaster by itself. An immense and dangerous quake lake was brought under control in a matter of weeks. Three years later, Wenchuan was completely rebuilt.

In comparison, Japan was unable to handle the tsunami damage on its own, and had to rely on imported resources. More than five years later, Fukushima continues to leak radiation.
 

vesicles

Colonel
One of my university professors said that Economics was a pseudo-science. I'm inclined to agree.

Economists focus on data models (created by other economists) and build narratives centered around those data models. The end result is that they frequently fall out of touch with reality.

I wouldn't say that.

Economics is no different than any other kinds of scientific disciplines. Economics follows the exact same steps as in all science fields: you collect data, develop hypothesis, test your hypothesis, develop a theory (model), make predictions.

As in any field, when you deal with a highly complex system, you need to simplify these models by making assumptions. And in almost all cases, these assumptions "fall out of touch with reality". Physicists make assumptions of multiple dimensions and multiverses even though there is no physical evidence for any of them. Hence the joke of a spherical chicken in the vacuum (this is a joke in the Big Bang Theory, where a farmer asks a physicist to help him figure out why his chickens won't lay any eggs. And the physicist goes back to the farmer and tells him that he solved the problem, but it only works with a spherical chicken in the vacuum)...

Biology/medicine is the same way. A mammalian cell is such a complex environment. It would be impossible to make sense of anything if we consider every bit of it. So we make assumptions to ignore all other components and only focus on one signaling cascade. And what do we get in the end? A theory that can explain phenomena that only appear in our frame of view and can predict events when we ignore all parts of cells. Then we get a whole bunch of drugs that work in single cells and some animals but not in human (90% of the new drugs developed by us do not work in human)...

Do you call physics and biology pseudo-science as well? I call it progress. We make hypotheses and models based on our existing capabilities. Then we keep modifying the models to get closer to the truth. This is exactly what science is. It's messy and confusing, but that's how we progress.
 

solarz

Brigadier
I wouldn't say that.

Economics is no different than any other kinds of scientific disciplines. Economics follows the exact same steps as in all science fields: you collect data, develop hypothesis, test your hypothesis, develop a theory (model), make predictions.

As in any field, when you deal with a highly complex system, you need to simplify these models by making assumptions. And in almost all cases, these assumptions "fall out of touch with reality". Physicists make assumptions of multiple dimensions and multiverses even though there is no physical evidence for any of them. Hence the joke of a spherical chicken in the vacuum (this is a joke in the Big Bang Theory, where a farmer asks a physicist to help him figure out why his chickens won't lay any eggs. And the physicist goes back to the farmer and tells him that he solved the problem, but it only works with a spherical chicken in the vacuum)...

Biology/medicine is the same way. A mammalian cell is such a complex environment. It would be impossible to make sense of anything if we consider every bit of it. So we make assumptions to ignore all other components and only focus on one signaling cascade. And what do we get in the end? A theory that can explain phenomena that only appear in our frame of view and can predict events when we ignore all parts of cells. Then we get a whole bunch of drugs that work in single cells and some animals but not in human (90% of the new drugs developed by us do not work in human)...

Do you call physics and biology pseudo-science as well? I call it progress. We make hypotheses and models based on our existing capabilities. Then we keep modifying the models to get closer to the truth. This is exactly what science is. It's messy and confusing, but that's how we progress.

Except everything you said relies on that one crucial step: testing your hypothesis.

How do you test hypotheses in Economics? Without experimentation, you cannot determine causation. Without causation, you cannot make predictions, period.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
I wouldn't say that.

Economics is no different than any other kinds of scientific disciplines. Economics follows the exact same steps as in all science fields: you collect data, develop hypothesis, test your hypothesis, develop a theory (model), make predictions.

As in any field, when you deal with a highly complex system, you need to simplify these models by making assumptions. And in almost all cases, these assumptions "fall out of touch with reality". Physicists make assumptions of multiple dimensions and multiverses even though there is no physical evidence for any of them. Hence the joke of a spherical chicken in the vacuum (this is a joke in the Big Bang Theory, where a farmer asks a physicist to help him figure out why his chickens won't lay any eggs. And the physicist goes back to the farmer and tells him that he solved the problem, but it only works with a spherical chicken in the vacuum)...

Biology/medicine is the same way. A mammalian cell is such a complex environment. It would be impossible to make sense of anything if we consider every bit of it. So we make assumptions to ignore all other components and only focus on one signaling cascade. And what do we get in the end? A theory that can explain phenomena that only appear in our frame of view and can predict events when we ignore all parts of cells. Then we get a whole bunch of drugs that work in single cells and some animals but not in human (90% of the new drugs developed by us do not work in human)...

Do you call physics and biology pseudo-science as well? I call it progress. We make hypotheses and models based on our existing capabilities. Then we keep modifying the models to get closer to the truth. This is exactly what science is. It's messy and confusing, but that's how we progress.
I don't think so. Economics attempts to predict the reactivity of markets and financial pictures and the results are based mostly upon policies, counter-policies, human will, learning, mental chess games, etc... These are anchored in the human psyche, which is highly fluid and not governed by solid rules, especially as they are shaped more and more by experience. Biology is a study anchored in the laws of nature, which are solid and unchanging from the beginning of time; if we get something wrong, it is not because the laws of nature have shifted to counter us, rather it is because we have failed to grasp one or more influencing factor(s).

In economics, even when using age-old principles, many economists can manipulate a scenario to look many different ways and they can all give reasons to back up their claims. Using the same data, some can say it will signal quick growth or recovery in China while Gordon Chang and the likes will doubtlessly find a way to point to some part of it as a harbinger of imminent collapse. But that's complicated; even the most basic economic concepts are wrong too often. If you increase your prices, you can lose costumers. Yet, sometimes, you increase your prices and somehow now your brand is seen as a luxury brand and you end up gaining customers! Or you cut prices to make more sales and somehow end up driving your company image into the ground as a cheap crap brand and losing your customer base. Most or all of the economists making predictions could be wrong when they try to foresee impact and it happens very often.

On the other hand, when using age-old biological principles to make predictions, scientists are right the vast majority of times. When you cut a man's heart out, he cannot survive. If a child is born with xxx syndrome, s/he cannot achieve normal intellectual thinking, etc... You can never get even 1 doctor to try to argue that a fetus diagnosed with trisomy 21 can be born a genius. The only times when the prediction is wrong is when an individual has a rare modifying mutation and the effects of that mutation on disease course were not understood. In my opinion, this is a much more solid science than economics, which due to its flimsy track record in making predictions based on whims of the situation (more artistic than scientific, really), can only qualify as a pseudo-science.
 
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vesicles

Colonel
Except everything you said relies on that one crucial step: testing your hypothesis.

How do you test hypotheses in Economics? Without experimentation, you cannot determine causation. Without causation, you cannot make predictions, period.

You develop a mathematical model of economic development based on existing data you collected in 2016 in China. Then you use the model to make predictions of India's economy in 2017. If your prediction is correct (I would assume you need to make a few changes to some of the variables to fit India's unique conditions), you got a working model. Different disciplines have different ways of "testing hypotheses". Don't get caught up with "doing experiments".
 

solarz

Brigadier
You develop a mathematical model of economic development based on existing data you collected in 2016 in China. Then you use the model to make predictions of India's economy in 2017. If your prediction is correct (I would assume you need to make a few changes to some of the variables to fit India's unique conditions), you got a working model. Different disciplines have different ways of "testing hypotheses". Don't get caught up with "doing experiments".

Actually, what ends up happening is that thousands of such models are made. A few of them happen to be correct by chance. Those models are then trumpeted in 2018, and end up being completely wrong.

I have a hard time believing that you, as a scientist, would not see this. The cornerstone of actual science is replicability. Anyone can do experiments and reach conclusions. Progress is only made when everyone else is able to replicate those experiments and reach the same conclusions. Only then do we know that those conclusions are valuable.

The opposite happens in Economics. Everyone makes their own data models and theories. Even those theories that are proven wrong time after time (i.e. Gordon Chang) still get trotted out as authoritative. Can you imagine doing research in any actual science using that kind of methodology?
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
You develop a mathematical model of economic development based on existing data you collected in 2016 in China. Then you use the model to make predictions of India's economy in 2017. If your prediction is correct (I would assume you need to make a few changes to some of the variables to fit India's unique conditions), you got a working model. Different disciplines have different ways of "testing hypotheses". Don't get caught up with "doing experiments".
I can't believe you'd compare physics to economics! Physics is a proven science, even more solid than biology where if you do something the same way for an infinite number of times, you'd get the same results every time. The only time when you'd get a different result is if you inadvertently did something differently or introduced a new variable. That is the polar opposite of economics in terms of reliability where you couldn't try the same thing twice without getting different results.

If anybody could get economics up to beyond pseudoscience, making money would be too easy!
 

Janiz

Senior Member
One of my university professors said that Economics was a pseudo-science.
Maybe some parts of it. But surely not when it comes to statistics and othe data that you can analyze. Every bigger company have teams of people who do that every day and it seems like it works for them. When economics touches mathematic or informatic matters I wouldn't call that as pseudo-science.
 
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