Not trying to compare China to India but this is an excellent piece or journalism and should put a damper on hyping up the "shining India" concept perpetrated by the media
I think this author hit the nail "Without reason you cannot get development" Everything start with reason.Any society that fail this test will not developed now matter how endowed they are with mineral riches, balmy climate etc .I seen it with my own eye. first posted by strangelove in CDF. It is a long article I only posted the excerpt
India’s Problems Have Deep Roots
India is an extremely irrational, superstitious, and tribal country. The concept of reason is mainly conspicuous by its absence in much of India. India was long associated with Britain and has imported western institutions, ways of living, technology, etc., over the last 200-300 years, but has failed to import the concept of reason.
The same could be said for Africa, the Middle East, rest of South Asia and most of South America. But we will stick with India here. Without the concept of reason, people can have no understanding of the rule of law, of fairness, or simply of what is right or wrong.
India: The World’s Fastest Growing Large Economy?
February 2, 2017 | Author Jayant Bhandari
India has been the world’s favorite country for the last three years. It is believed to have superseded China as the world’s fastest growing large economy. India is expected to grow at 7.5%. Compare that to the mere 6.3% growth that China has “fallen” to.
India’s quarterly annualized GDP growth rate since 2008, according to MOSPI (statistics ministry) – click to enlarge.
The IMF, the World Bank, and the international media have celebrated this event. Declining commodity prices and other problems in Russia, Brazil and South Africa have damaged the prospects of the BRICs (ex-India) and other emerging markets.
Commodity and currency markets have been very turbulent, and the Arab Spring has not only failed to keep up its pace, it has half-destroyed the Middle East, with fires raging in Syria, Turkey, Libya, etc. Migrant problems in Europe and the uncertain future of the US — as per the current narrative — leave India as the prime candidate to prop up global economic growth.
It seems to be deeply emotionally satisfying to finally see the world’s largest democracy supersede the “communist dictatorship” of China. India’s GDP has also just surpassed that of the UK, its former colonial master. The world is looking toward India as a beacon for the future of humanity. Again, that seems to be the narrative.
Is India the World’s Next Superpower?
Everything cited above is plain wrong and falsifiable by using primary school mathematics. It is little but rationalization for what seems to be emotionally gratifying.
China’s GDP is USD 11.4 trillion (2016; IMF). India’s GDP is USD 2.25 trillion (2016; IMF). These economies are in no way comparable. The Chinese economy is more than 5 times larger. China’s GDP per capita stands at USD 8,260 and that of India at USD 1,718. China’s population (1.37 billion) and the population of India (1.34 billion) are comparable — but China is five times richer on a per capita basis.
Based on these figures, India will add USD 129 in economic output on a per capita basis if it grows at a pace of 7.5%. Similarly, if China grows by 6.3%, its output will increase by USD 520 per capita.
Those who say that India is home to the world’s largest economic growth have not even done primary school math on the situation. India actually needs to grow at more than 30% to outpace China in absolute terms per capita.
It helps to play around with the numbers cited above to understand how erroneous expectations have been. If one assumes that India continues to grow at a rate of 7.5%, and China at a rate of 6.3% from here on out, it will take 127 years before India’s per capita growth will actually begin to exceed China’s.
The problem is that many people confuse “rate of growth” with actual “growth.” They blithely assume that a higher growth rate means greater growth. They assume that a decline in the growth rate is a decline in growth. Perhaps people simply see what they want to see as a result of their ideological preferences.
In the early 1980s, India was richer on a per capita basis than China — India’s population was much smaller than China’s, but its GDP was of similar size.
If one pores over statements released by international institutions and media reports published over the past 36 years, it was consistently claimed that while India would be slow in getting to this point, it would eventually outpace China.
Not only did this not happen, but as demonstrated above, by now it looks as though it will be virtually impossible for India to outpace China. One should pause to reflect on why so many have been so consistently wrong about India.
The Sacred Cow of Democracy
One of the major reasons why the West, its institutions and the upper and middle classes prefer India over China is that India follows the western religion of democracy. They refuse to see that democracy tends not to work in poor countries (it is debatable whether it worked in the West).
One could well say that by the time democracy was introduced in the West, particularly in its present form in which everyone has the right to vote, the West had already reached its intellectual peak.
A painting purporting to show the assembly of ancient Athens. The city-state became democratic around 500 BC – it was the first known experiment in democracy. However, only adult male Athenian citizens who had completed their military training had the right to vote. Slaves, freed slaves, children, women and foreigners residents were excluded.
The history of democracy’s achievements in the non-western world is particularly bad. Africa, the Middle East, South East Asia and most of South America are riddled with countries that embraced democracy and almost immediately took a turn for the worse. In fact, I cannot think of a single country in these regions that improved after adopting democracy. Nepal, East Timor, and PNG are vivid recent examples.
Non-western countries which have performed better in terms of economic growth and social indexes improved during time periods in which they were for all practical purposes not democratic. To name a few: Lee Kuan Yew’s Singapore, British and now Chinese Hong Kong, Park Chung-hee’s South Korea, Pinochet’s Chile, and Chiang’s Taiwan.
In India democracy never worked, but who need facts when emotions need to be satisfied? If Africa were a country, India would be worse off in terms of virtually every economic and social index on per capita basis. As a proportion of India’s population, the country’s people are among the world’s poorest, most diseased, wretched and malnourished.
48% of Indians don’t even have access to toilets. Similar percentages of India’s population live without electricity, water and other basic amenities. To put this number into perspective again: at a per capita GDP of USD 1,718, India is poorer than Sudan, the Republic of Congo, Laos, Papua New Guinea and many other countries not exactly known for their great wealth.
It is often claimed that India has the largest English speaking population outside the western world. This was true in the past, but it is likely no longer true. China has brought in a large number of native speakers from Canada, the UK and the US to teach English to its students. It seems very likely that there are now more English speakers in China than there are in India – and they speak better English.
