Chinese Economics Thread

[solarz]

OT I hope folks will understand that I did not think it was worth creating a new thread for the question I want to ask and let it pass

I received a pre auction offer from a Chinese Mainlander for a property Ive got on the market. Its substantially more than I was expecting and well above the reserve.
The only condition being, he wanted to extend the settlement date by an extra 6 weeks, citing it would take longer for a private individual to get permission to take a large amount of money out of China.
Is that true?

thanks

On the face of it, yes. China limits the amount of money that can leave the country, so typically it takes a while to transfer money from China to another country.

BTW, I think there's an "ask anything thread" where these kind of questions can go.

 

[Blackstone]

Some good news from a Trump advisor, and I think signaling the goodwill gesture in the SCMP is a good olive branch to balance Trump's campaign rhetoric. Hope something good actually comes of it.

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In an opinion piece in the South China Morning Post on Friday, James Woolsey, a senior adviser to Trump on national security and intelligence, called Washington's spurning of the China-led multilateral lender "a strategic mistake" and expected a "much warmer" response From Trump to President Xi Jinping's "One Belt, One Road" initiative.

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The United States and Japan are the only two G7 countries that have not signed up to be AIIB members, a move viewed by Beijing as a sign of Washington's mistrust of the Chinese government and its ambition to exert bigger regional influence.

Analysts said that if Trump backed US membership of the AIIB and endorsed China's efforts to revive trade routes along the ancient Silk Road, it would be a big sign of goodwill from Washington to Beijing to pave the way for future agreements.

Former Chinese vice-commerce minister Wei Jianguo agreed, saying that while Trump labelled China a currency manipulator and threatened trade wars, he might have a more open attitude towards China-backed institutions and investment programs.

Wei Jianguo, China Center for International Economic Exchanges, now a deputy director of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said that if Trump embraced the AIIB, more trade and investment deals could flow between the two economies.

Daiwa Capital Markets economists Kevin Lai and Olivia Xia said that if Trump aborted the TPP, China could avoid the risks of "being shut out of a massive trade deal." But it could also delay much-needed reforms in China.

"Without the threat from the TPP, China could continue to support inefficient state-owned enterprises to strengthen the state control and impose local-content requirements on multinational companies to keep jobs in China," they said.


SOURCES- South China Morning Post

 

[Equation]

U.S.-China Investment Ties Are Deeper Than You Thought

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November 16, 2016

U.S.-China Investment Ties Are Deeper Than You Thought
Foreign direct investment flowing both ways between the U.S. and China may be two to four times greater than shown by data from both governments.

That’s according to a Rhodium Group analysis of deals from 1990 to 2015 released in a joint

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with the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations.

Nearly 6,700 U.S. investments in China over that quarter century have a combined value of $228 billion, Rhodium found, far beyond the $75 billion U.S. Department of Commerce estimate or the $70 billion from China’s Ministry of Commerce. China’s 1,200 transactions over those years come to a combined value of $64 billion, eclipsing Mofcom’s $41 billion tally and the $15 billion to $21 billion range from the Commerce Department.

For the first time, Chinese companies invested more in the U.S. last year than American companies in China, underscoring the evolution of the world’s two largest economies.

Economic integration "is much greater than official statistics suggest," said Thilo Hanemann, an economist at Rhodium who manages the consulting firm's work on global trade and investment and co-wrote the report. "That means that the costs on both sides from protectionist frictions are much higher than commonly assumed."

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Such links may be more crucial than ever after President-elect Donald Trump’s surprise win. Chinese President Xi Jinping told Trump in their first conversation this week that cooperation was the only correct choice for their ties.

American companies employ more than 1.6 million workers in China, while that country’s investment presence provides more than 100,000 jobs in the U.S, and the benefits are spread across more than 90 percent of U.S. states and Chinese provinces, according to Rhodium.

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"The local benefits have been enormous," the New York-based organizations wrote in their joint report. "These links also facilitate people-to-people relationships to a greater extent than trade and tourism."

More than 1,300 American companies have major operations in China, with 430 of those investing over $50 million and 56 more than $1 billion, Rhodium concluded. U.S. firms are eager to engage Chinese consumers and compete in growth sectors such as services, health care, and research and development, it said.

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While some Americans want reciprocity requirements on Chinese FDI, and some Chinese complain about the lack of American openness, "policy makers are well advised to consider how much further along the relationship is than official data suggests," the report said.

"Doing so argues for upgrading the policy framework presently used to manage related opportunities and concerns," the organizations concluded. "Upgrading U.S.-China FDI policy is not just a noble long-term goal but a present necessity."

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[Blackstone]

Lord Palmerston is proven right again as Australia and even Japan looks to China's FTAAP. I hope President-elect Trump takes another look at free trade and realize all nations benefit from trade, his administration should concentrate on negotiating great trade deals and also do a better job of taking care of those displaced by globalization.

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With the Trans-Pacific Partnership’s future ‘looking grim’, Steve Ciobo says Coalition would back free trade zone

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A Chinese container ship comes in to berth in Sydney. The Australian government has muted its support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership since Donald Trump’s election victory. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP

The Australian government has effectively cut its losses in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, signalling support for Chinese-led trade deals before a meeting this weekend of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group in

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.

In an

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on Thursday and in an interview with the Financial Times before Apec, the trade minister, Steve Ciobo, said Australia would support a proposal being advanced by the Chinese government, the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific.

“With the future of the TPP looking grim, my ministerial counterparts and I will work to conclude a study on the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific, which sets out agreed actions towards a future free trade zone,” Ciobo said in the piece published on Thursday.

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was excluded from the TPP, which was the key economic component of the Obama administration’s pivot to Asia. It has pursued two rival trade pacts, the Apec-wide Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific and a separate trade deal called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which includes 16 countries but not the US.

Australia has been a vocal public supporter of the TPP, arguing that the agreement would underpin continuing US engagement with the Asia-Pacific region and lobbying congressional leaders to support its passage.

But the Turnbull government has muted its public support for the trade pact since

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won the US presidential election. The president-elect campaigned vociferously against the TPP throughout the bitterly contested presidential contest.

Since Trump’s victory,

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the US should come on board its trade proposals.

“The incoming administration should realise that the more open, inclusive Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership will turn out to be a far more efficient vehicle for advancing US interests,” an editorial in China Daily said this week. “Washington may want to take advantage of the nascent, evolving platform and become involved from the rule-making stage.”

Japan has also signalled a reorientation towards the Chinese deals in the lead-up to Apec.

The impact of a Trump presidency will loom large in the sidelines conversation at Apec, even through the president-elect won’t be present.

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will attend the Peru summit in his final international engagement before handing over to the Trump administration.

Australia’s prime minister,

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, told reporters on Thursday that Trump would be a significant topic of conversation among regional leaders. “Everyone will be talking about it, no doubt about that,” Turnbull said.

“It was the election of a new president in the United States, a momentous decision for the United States and for the whole world so of course it will be a very keen topic of conversation.”

Turnbull continued on Thursday to dead bat questions about the fate of

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. He is expected to discuss the deal with Obama this weekend.

It is unclear whether the Trump administration will honour the agreement. The Republican adviser Karl Rove has argued it could easily be dumped after the inauguration on 20 January.

Turnbull has responded to all questions about the viability of the resettlement agreement over the medium and long term by saying the Australian government deals with one administration at a time.

 

[SteelBird]

Good News For China? No TPP For The U.S., And Now Vietnam

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is not the only one who wants to take a step back from joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade deal, so does Vietnam. The country’s leader announced it will not ratify the Asia-Pacific trade deal at the 14th National Assembly on Thursday.

“Vietnam has prepared to join the 12-nation TPP. However, as the U.S. has announced to suspend the deal, there would be no sufficient conditions for Vietnam to submit its proposal for ratification,” said Vietnam’s Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc.

With more than five years of negotiation, TPP, one of the most ambitious free trade deals negotiated between developing and developed countries, officially entered into an agreement in February. Countries have two years to ratify this more than 2,000-pages pact, involving higher labor standards, intellectual property rights, environmental rules and other issues. None of the 12 countries have completed the ratification process so far. Japan, the second-largest economy after the U.S in this treaty, voted to ratify the deal this month. Prime Minister Abe is meeting Trump in New York today, where TPP is likely to be discussed.

While this China-excluded deal is facing uncertainties after the U.S. election, some countries like Australia are signaling they would support a China-led regional trade deal, which its trade minister, Steve Ciobo, said on national media ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting this weekend in Peru.

Good News for China?

The U.S-led TPP is an important initiative under President Obama’s Asia pivot strategy, where it seems to have more strategic implications for the U.S. than economic benefits. Under the Trump administration, TPP is most likely not going to be implemented, which leaves China more space to flex its muscles in the region. (Trump’s opponent, Hillary Clinton, also opposed TPP.) But does this mean good news for China? Some experts say no.

President Barack Obama and other leaders of the Trans-Pacific Partnership countries pose for a photo in Manila, Philippines. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)

“I think this is bad for China because TPP would promote economic growth in the region, which is good for all trading nations in the region, including China,” Jeffrey Schott, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former official of the U.S. Treasury Department, told FORBES ASIA. Schott points out China benefits when it has more prosperous trading partners and TPP helps to promote economic reforms in member countries.

China was not sitting on the sidelines during TPP negotiations. Along with 15 other countries, China has been negotiating a region-wide trade deal since early 2013, covering around 50% the world’s population and 30% of global GDP. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a less ambitious treaty than TPP, which aims to tackle some highly sensitive aspects of trade, has finished its 15th round of negotiations this month. A TPP member, Peru, expressed its interest in joining this week.

“RCEP is not equivalent or a substitute to TPP because there is less value in it. That’s why seven of the 16 RCEP members are also in TPP, where the economic payoff is much greater,” Schott told FORBES ASIA.

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[AssassinsMace]

Yeah, there's less value in any other FTA... for the US. The manipulation is if all free trade agreements were what people think they are which is all trade barriers come down and everything is freely traded without restrictions or tariffs, how does one claim one is better than the other? It's just like why the US is still involved in the Middle East despite the glories of energy independence. Being energy independent doesn't give the US a say in the politics of oil. Since oil is a strategic resource around the world and Americans love their power and influence, they have to be involved good and the bad. Hence why the US gives Saudi Arabia a pass on its links to terrorism. Having influence with the most important country in regard to the politics and economics of oil is more important than Americans getting killed by terrorists. It's more important than women's rights with Hillary Clinton since she doesn't say a word of criticism on how some say they're the worst when it comes to treatment of women while attacking other countries that have a better record.

If they just told Americans the truth about TPP that it's about controlling and stopping China from exercising the same advantages and power the US exercises because everyone wants to make a lot of money off of the American consumer which is the largest and richest by excluding China at first to make them feel isolated and left out and have them come begging therefore they will submit to restrictive rules, that would be a great selling point to Americans. But it comes at the cost of Americans losing their jobs to the other TPP membership so they can make lots of money because that's the only way other countries would join. That's why they can't tell the truth. Japan got rich because the US needed Japan in the Cold War. That came at the sacrifice of Americans losing their jobs.

Same reasons why in regards to AIIB too. Obama said the same things but it's only bad for the US. What country that needs infrastructure is going to go to the US for a loan when it comes with a lot of concessions, restrictions, and rules. How is that better for them as Obama argued? No it's only better for the US because they get political and economic concessions if the US is only one giving out the loans. If China is a less restrictive alternative on who gets loans, anyone in their right mind would see that as better conditions. Then they lie about how all of the US's allies are joining AIIB are going to lose out. No, they're only joining because they want the contracts to build infrastructure for countries that can't do it themselves because it's guaranteed backed by AIIB so they don't have to worry about these underdeveloped countries defaulting on loans. They joined because there's big money to be made and you have to be a member of AIIB to be favored to get those contracts.

The only reason why TPP was great for the US is because it writes the rules and in the end it would payoff big maintaining US dominant power and influence over the world. But a lot of things had to come together at first before the payoff. Things that would require the American worker to sacrifice. They couldn't sell that so that's why they couldn't tell the truth. Like other Asian countries were respectful of the rule of law and intellectual property? Vietnam pulled out because now they don't have to commit to the costly prerequisites that all members had to abide by. No need to have to pay for technology to keep their factories clean. No need to pay labor more money that TPP required. So how was it better than other free trade agreements with less rules?

 

[tidalwave]

Mounting evidences shown Korean Samsung, Hynix, US Mircon are colluding as bloc of monopolies to keep China out of the memory Market.

China needs to take action against such monopolistic behavior inside China .
China could seize control of Samsung Nand Flash Fab in Xian.

If foreign companies are colluding to form monopolies to control China market and if I am Chinese government, I would take them out.
========================================

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Lee Se-cheol, an analyst with NH Investment & Securities, was quoted as saying:


"…all chip manufacturers agreed to keep Chinese makers from moving into the market. If in the past winners in the chicken game during hard times could take more market share in the subsequent good times, now those lagging behind will be acquired by up-and-coming Chinese chip companies. There is no telling whether and how Chinese companies with strong backing from the government shake up the marketplace."

His analysis is based upon the perception that there has been an implicit agreement among Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron Technology to keep Chinese makers from entering the market.

 

[Franklin]

Mounting evidences shown Korean Samsung, Hynix, US Mircon are colluding as bloc of monopolies to keep China out of the memory Market.

China needs to take action against such monopolistic behavior inside China .
China could seize control of Samsung Nand Flash Fab in Xian.

If foreign companies are colluding to form monopolies to control China market and if I am Chinese government, I would take them out.
========================================

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Lee Se-cheol, an analyst with NH Investment & Securities, was quoted as saying:


"…all chip manufacturers agreed to keep Chinese makers from moving into the market. If in the past winners in the chicken game during hard times could take more market share in the subsequent good times, now those lagging behind will be acquired by up-and-coming Chinese chip companies. There is no telling whether and how Chinese companies with strong backing from the government shake up the marketplace."

His analysis is based upon the perception that there has been an implicit agreement among Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron Technology to keep Chinese makers from entering the market.

Even if this is true then still they cannot keep China out of it's own domestic market. China's domestic market is big enough to create its own industry and let it develop it's own technology. Just look at the internet sector. And once these companies grow large enough they will spread their wings abroad. If the Chinese can offer the world similar products as the developed countries but with lower prices, then they will gain market share internationally. This is already happening in many industries.

 

[tidalwave]

Even if this is true then still they cannot keep China out of it's own domestic market. China's domestic market is big enough to create its own industry and let it develop it's own technology. Just look at the internet sector. And once these companies grow large enough they will spread their wings abroad. If the Chinese can offer the world similar products as the developed countries but with lower prices, then they will gain market share internationally. This is already happening in many industries.

what they doing is illegal. Collusion.
China punish Qualcomm for monopoly for $1billion. It can do the same to Samsung, Micron, Hynix.

 

[KIENCHIN]

what they doing is illegal. Collusion.
China punish Qualcomm for monopoly for $1billion. It can do the same to Samsung, Micron, Hynix.

They should hone them if they have enough evidence, the total 3 billion dollars can be use to help the local start up's and set these companies capex back