Chinese Economics Thread

[ahojunk]

The numbers are amazing!

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(Xinhua) 20:32, June 21, 2016

BEIJING, June 21 --The number of 4G users in China stood at 530 million at the end of Q1, exceeding the number of 4G users in the United States and Europe put together, a senior official said on Monday.

China has the world's largest 4G network, covering all cities and major towns, Chen Zhaoxiong, vice minister of industry and information technology told the 2016 China Internet Conference.

China had around 2 million 4G base stations at the end of March, he added.

China's mobile Internet users hit 619 million at the end of last year, accounting for a bit more than 90 percent of the total netizens.

The Internet has become a critical element of China's economic development. The size of the Internet economy amounted to 1.12 trillion yuan (171 billion U.S. dollars) last year.

The conference, which lasts from Tuesday through Thursday, attracted nearly 1,000 attendees from home and abroad.

 

[AssassinsMace]

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Ironic that free trade agreements have negotiations. It should be straightforward but strategic industries are always protected and the sticking points. If China joined TPP, would that mean the US has to end bans on sales of technology categorizes as dual-use? What about how the US can veto sales of European technology because some component they have in it is American. Or how about how the US prevented European satellites from being launched on Chinese rockets for the same reason? I don't imagine how that changes with a free trade agreement. The part where the EU expects China to respect human rights at home and... abroad? In other words China can't do business with countries that the US/West charges violates human rights of their people. Does China get the EU to stop doing business with dictators themselves? The EU's record isn't so clean when it comes countries they do business with also including Iran. How does that work when Europeans were doing business with Iran at the same time China was accused? They get to protect themselves from dumping but just look at how like Google thought it should be dominating China or how Hollywood thinks it deserves unrestricted access to China. How about their news media? Maybe they believe they deserve unrestricted access to China as well. You better believe news like China's world's fastest supercomputer made entirely with domestic technology makes them more open to a free trade agreement because the more independent China becomes, the harder it is for them to get in and the less power they have to negotiate with.

 

[Equation]

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Ironic that free trade agreements have negotiations. It should be straightforward but strategic industries are always protected and the sticking points. If China joined TPP, would that mean the US has to end bans on sales of technology categorizes as dual-use? What about how the US can veto sales of European technology because some component they have in it is American. Or how about how the US prevented European satellites from being launched on Chinese rockets for the same reason? I don't imagine how that changes with a free trade agreement. The part where the EU expects China to respect human rights at home and... abroad? In other words China can't do business with countries that the US/West charges violates human rights of their people. Does China get the EU to stop doing business with dictators themselves? The EU's record isn't so clean when it comes countries they do business with also including Iran. How does that work when Europeans were doing business with Iran at the same time China was accused? They get to protect themselves from dumping but just look at how like Google thought it should be dominating China or how Hollywood thinks it deserves unrestricted access to China. How about their news media? Maybe they believe they deserve unrestricted access to China as well. You better believe news like China's world's fastest supercomputer made entirely with domestic technology makes them more open to a free trade agreement because the more independent China becomes, the harder it is for them to get in and the less power they have to negotiate with.

Good, with the Brexit now coming into fruition the EU will have less negotiating power and economic and political hypocrisy over China. Let's see how high they can jump now.

 

[solarz]

Good, with the Brexit now coming into fruition the EU will have less negotiating power and economic and political hypocrisy over China. Let's see how high they can jump now.

What do you guys think of the wider implications of Brexit for China? Xi has publicly urged the UK to remain, but that could just be a preference for certainty.

I think the biggest implication of Brexit is the precedent it sets. By itself, Brexit will have limited impact. However, if other nations that are unhappy with the EU, such as Greece, also decide to leave, then the EU will be in real danger.

(Consequently, I just want to bring up the fact that I had predicted something like this happening in the Europe Refugee Crisis thread: https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/europe-refugee-crisis.t7856/, though I hadn't really thought the UK would be first to leave.)

This represents both dangers and opportunities for China. Trade agreements will need to be reworked, but the uncertainty of EU might push more countries to seek the stability of the Chinese economy.

 

[AssassinsMace]

China shouldn't even give an opinion. When I see the media publish a story especially headlining China's opinion in this sort of context, it's intention is to have the opposite take place. Like the world is going to follow what China wants? With Donald Trump running for President there were articles about who the Chinese want as President as to suggest who'd be easier for China. Of course the articles contradict one another where China is for both which means it's a tactic for people to vote for the opposing candidate as to claim whoever China was for is a negative for that candidate. Is China aware of that and declaring an opinion is a tactic in itself? Probably not.

Frankly the Chinese attitude is they're against any sort of instability first and foremost. I don't even think Beijing thinks about how the result serves them or not. They just don't like instability.

 

[AndrewS]

Yes, whatever China says will have little to no impact on what happens with Brexit, so what's the point if mashing a big deal out of it?

But in general, it is in China's economic interest to avoid instability.

If we end up with places like the Netherlands or Greece or the Nordic countries leaving as well, a fragmented Europe is a lot easier for China to deal with politically and economically, however it would be poorer than if it stuck together.

But if a European free trade area continues, then Europe should continue to grow wealthier and add to global demand. Europe is just too far away and politically divided to really impact China, so it doesn't make any difference to China.

It's a complex topic on who loses and gains. There are both risks and opportunities for China, depending on what happens

 

[Jura The idiot]

according to The Guardian (dated Friday 24 June 2016 01.04 BST) Beijing has fallen: China's capital sinking by 11cm a year, satellite study warns

Pumping of groundwater blamed for causing soil to collapse as development roars ahead above, with railways among infrastructure at risk, say scientists

China’s capital is known for its horrendous smog and occasional sandstorms. Yet one of its major environmental threats lies underground: Beijing is sinking.

Excessive pumping of groundwater is causing the geology under the city to collapse, according to a new study using satellite imagery that reveals parts of Beijing – particularly its central business district – are subsiding each year by as much as 11 centimetres, or more than four inches.

The authors of the study warn that continued subsidence poses a safety threat to the city of more than 2o million, with “a strong impact on train operations” one of the predictions.

The study on Beijing’s subsidence has been published in the peer-reviewed journal Remote Sensing and is based on InSAR, a type of radar that

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. It was written by a team of seven researchers, including three who explained their findings to the Guardian: Chinese academics Chen Mi [Capital Normal University, China] and Li Zhenhong [Newcastle University, UK], and Spanish engineer Roberto Tomas [University of Alicante, Spain].

“We are currently carrying out a detailed analysis of the impacts of subsidence on critical infrastructure (eg high-speed railways) in the Beijing plain,” they said in an email to the Guardian. “Hopefully a paper summarising our findings will come out later this year.”

Beijing sits in a dry plain where groundwater has accumulated over millennia. As wells are drilled and the water table drops, the underlying soil compacts, much like a dried-out sponge.

The study finds that the entire city is sinking but the subsidence is most pronounced in Beijing’s Chaoyang district, which has boomed since 1990 with skyscrapers, ringroads and other development. The researchers say the uneven nature of the subsidence in some areas poses risks to buildings and other infrastructure.

Tens of thousands of water wells are thought to exist in and around Beijing, many of them used in farming and landscaping. The state has regulatory power over installation of wells but is inconsistent in applying it, according to one leading Chinese environmentalist.

“There are some rules but the enforcement is doubtful,” said Ma Jun, director of the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs in Beijing. Ma said he wasn’t surprised subsidence was relatively high in the Chaoyang district given its rapid growth of recent decades. He expected it to keep moving east as the city sprawled in that direction.

In 2015 China inaugurated a mega-engineering project aimed at mitigating Beijing’s water crisis. The state completed construction of the South-North Water Diversion, a £48bn, 2,400km network of canals and tunnels, designed to

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.

Even before the canal began delivering water, Beijing was easing up on some groundwater pumping. In January of 2015 the Chaoyang district announced plans to phase out 367 water wells, reducing the use of 10m cubic meters of underground water.

Experts say it is still too early to know if the canal’s water deliveries will help recharge the aquifer and slow Beijing’s rate of subsidence. In the meantime concerns about impacts to buildings and rail systems continue. To prevent derailments a 2015 study recommended that China

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.

Other cities around the world are experiencing subsidence caused by excessive water pumping or other factors. Mexico City is sinking by up to 28cm a year and Jakarta is subsiding at a similar rate. Bangkok is dropping annually by as much as 12cm, similar to Beijing, according to the Remote Sensing researchers.

source:

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[Qi_1528]

What do you guys think of the wider implications of Brexit for China? Xi has publicly urged the UK to remain, but that could just be a preference for certainty.

I think the biggest implication of Brexit is the precedent it sets. By itself, Brexit will have limited impact. However, if other nations that are unhappy with the EU, such as Greece, also decide to leave, then the EU will be in real danger.

(Consequently, I just want to bring up the fact that I had predicted something like this happening in the Europe Refugee Crisis thread: https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/europe-refugee-crisis.t7856/, though I hadn't really thought the UK would be first to leave.)

This represents both dangers and opportunities for China. Trade agreements will need to be reworked, but the uncertainty of EU might push more countries to seek the stability of the Chinese economy.

You're right to think other countries may follow, and I believe this is likely to happen. There are good reasons why so many people and politicians have become upset with the EU. It was implemented very poorly. It should have either been a United States of Europe, or given each member a very high degree of political and economic sovereignty (somewhat like Hong Kong), but it did neither, especially on the economic front. Greece for example needs to be running a budget deficit right now to kick start its economic growth, but they are prevented by Eurozone rules from running more than a relatively tiny deficit. They in effect have austerity imposed upon them, and it's gutting the country in a way not seen since the great depression.

The fights over immigration and racism are a distraction from the real issue. In any case, the EU is doomed, and I think it should be. I'm all for European unity in principle, but the form that unity takes needs to work fairly for each member country, and their people.

As for how an EU breakup affects China, I don't think it will affect it too greatly unless some crazy neo nazi leader starts a war. Renegotiating trade deals should only be a short term disruption.

 

[Qi_1528]

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Long essay from Michael Pettis about China's so called "supply side reforms". I won't quote it directly due to length. When I first read this termed being used in the Chinese media, I panicked a little bit. What we recognise as supply side reforms in the West has directly contributed to the growth of income inequality, and unsustainable levels of private debt. Both of which are thing China badly needs to get under control if it wants to prevent the current economic difficulties from getting worse. So I've been spending some times trying to get a hold of what Chinese policy makers actually mean when they use the term. Fortunately, there's not too much common with the Western reforms aside from the name. However, I still share Pettis' skepticism over the likelihood of these reforms working as intended.

 

[ahho]

That is not the only problem. If you see some kungfu novel adaptation to TV series or Movies, either the movie was too "artistic", overused of CG "especially the bad ones" and sometimes too exaggerated on some of the action