Chinese Economics Thread

[Janiz]

Like Yogi Berra said it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. So check it back again in 30 years time. Fair enough?

I never predicted anything meaningfull from you on this boards whether it's about military developements or social. It's good to know that you keep up to that level... Fair enough?

 

[Yvrch]

I never predicted anything meaningfull from you on this boards whether it's about military developements or social. It's good to know that you keep up to that level... Fair enough?

Fact is I would rather stay away from someone predicting out to 30 years and thought he's being meaningful in doing so. Out of your depth wouldn't you say?

I'd rather stick to facts mostly, and indulge in 30 years predictions with a lot of skepticism.
Can you keep up even to that level? Fair enough?

 

[Janiz]

I'd rather stick to facts mostly, and indulge in 30 years predictions with a lot of skepticism.
Can you keep up even to that level? Fair enough?

Recently even Nature magazine had a feature on the future demographic trends around the world. I bet it's not a litarature for you but keep away from other's people's minds if they want to express their view on the matter when you have none. Fair enough?

 

[Yvrch]

Recently Nature magazine had a feature on the future demographic trends around the world. I bet it's not a litarature for you but keep away from other's people's minds if they want to express their view on the matter when you have none. Fair enough?

Yeah it's generally a good idea to keep away from crazy people's minds, who think they can see what would happen in 30 years time based on one data point.

Carry on with your meaning and minds and stuff.

For me there's nothing to see. Just song and dance. Fair enough?

 

[Janiz]

You're surely off topic and you don't have anything to even start discussion. Why can't you just ignore that if you don't have anything to say about that?

Yeah it's generally a good idea to keep away from crazy people's minds

Crazy people's minds put you on the Earth's orbit, skies and seas. Keep up the good work! And stop replying when you have NOTHING to say about something.

You want methodology which you won't even probably understand thanks to rather complicated statistical apparatus used in research? Are those complexes speaking? You don't know a thing about something but you have to express something meaningless like 'only time will tell'? Please, stop replying.

 

[Yvrch]

You're surely off topic and you don't have anything to even start discussion. Why can't you just ignore that if you don't have anything to say about that?Crazy people's minds put you on the Earth's orbit, skies and seas. Keep up the good work! And stop replying when you have NOTHING to say about something.

You want methodology which you won't even probably understand thanks to rather complicated statistical apparatus used in research? Are those complexes speaking? You don't know a thing about something but you have to express something meaningless like 'only time will tell'? Please, stop replying.

You must be blond.

I was just being polite when using the crazy, which didn't mean anything that lie on the side of orbit, skies and seas, rather it lies mostly on medication and white walls if you are smart enough to catch my drift. But you are not even to that level to get the obvious hints.

Ha, methodology that I won't understand. I admit there are a lot of stuff out there I don't even know I don't know. But collective knowledge of this board can collaborate on that mystery complicated statistical apparatus.

Did I hit the raw nerve? Bruise your esteem ? Stop crying. I won't tease you again if you don't come back for it again. Fair enough?

 

[broadsword]

Sacred cows get a free pass.

 

[nfgc]

Theoretically speaking, if your economy has certain size and maturity, you can do that in perpetuity, within reasonable bounds. Some has already done it. US, Japan, EU etc through fiscal transfers. FFS, they are even buying corporate bonds. BoJ is tracking to be one of the top major holders of Nikkei 225.

Incorrect. We have an example. Japan.

Japan has experienced 27 years of a long term declining trendline in GDP and monetary velocity. What eventually happens is that the economy suffocates slowly over time, rather than experiencing a quick shock that is recovered from in a few years.

Bad debts must be cleared. Japan won't clear the bad loans from the 80's and it is destroying their growth.

The USA is experiencing the same thing.

China will experience it as well.

Maths cannot be denied or bargained with.

 

[Yvrch]

Incorrect. We have an example. Japan.

Japan has experienced 27 years of a long term declining trendline in GDP and monetary velocity. What eventually happens is that the economy suffocates slowly over time, rather than experiencing a quick shock that is recovered from in a few years.

Bad debts must be cleared. Japan won't clear the bad loans from the 80's and it is destroying their growth.

The USA is experiencing the same thing.

China will experience it as well.

Maths cannot be denied or bargained with.

Japan's corporate debt is no more.



It has moved to sovereign debt, hence the fiscal transfer talk, QQE1, QQE2.



Do you have facts?

 

[solarz]

Incorrect. We have an example. Japan.

Japan has experienced 27 years of a long term declining trendline in GDP and monetary velocity. What eventually happens is that the economy suffocates slowly over time, rather than experiencing a quick shock that is recovered from in a few years.

Bad debts must be cleared. Japan won't clear the bad loans from the 80's and it is destroying their growth.

The USA is experiencing the same thing.

China will experience it as well.

Maths cannot be denied or bargained with.

Mathematics and Economics have very little to do with each other, despite the latter's pretensions.