Chinese Economics Thread

[Ultra]

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I think that's what China is going to face very soon, as it will enter the "zero-growth" phase as combination of population aging, rising wages, commodity scarcity driven cost rise; all of which will drive the manufacturers to seek "offshoring" as viable strategy. If not offshoring, these manufacturers will have to go up in high tier manufacturing process with much higher cost as they turn to robotics and automation - most likely getting financial help and tax off-set incentives in order to just "keep the jobs" in the country.

How China deal with zero-growth economy is probably CPC's most important topic. Combine with rising debts, and more outlay for infrastructure cost, environmental degradation/protection, something will have to give. The rich will continue to want to move out, I think the biggest export for China for the next 30 years will be PEOPLE. The rich upper and middle class. This will in turn hollow out the economy, taking the wealth out of the country.

The Chinese government may enact policies to stymie the flow of money out (or they already are - I think I have heard from friends that they are making it much much harder to take large sum of money oversea), or making it harder for citizen to immigrate abroad. Enacting and tightening up environmental protection policies will be the way to fix the issue, but it will also come at a huge cost - more manufacturers moving out, further driving up unemployment.

The only way out is innovation, and that's something that will take a huge cultural change for China to transition into.

 

[PanAsian]

How many of China's 1% are Communist Party members? Maybe a better question to ask is how many of them aren't?

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So this is proof that Communism actually worked for the purposes of equality, and that the PRC hasn't been Communist for a looong time.

 

[Blitzo]

I think that's what China is going to face very soon, as it will enter the "zero-growth" phase as combination of population aging, rising wages, commodity scarcity driven cost rise; all of which will drive the manufacturers to seek "offshoring" as viable strategy. If not offshoring, these manufacturers will have to go up in high tier manufacturing process with much higher cost as they turn to robotics and automation - most likely getting financial help and tax off-set incentives in order to just "keep the jobs" in the country.

How China deal with zero-growth economy is probably CPC's most important topic. Combine with rising debts, and more outlay for infrastructure cost, environmental degradation/protection, something will have to give. The rich will continue to want to move out, I think the biggest export for China for the next 30 years will be PEOPLE. The rich upper and middle class. This will in turn hollow out the economy, taking the wealth out of the country.

The Chinese government may enact policies to stymie the flow of money out (or they already are - I think I have heard from friends that they are making it much much harder to take large sum of money oversea), or making it harder for citizen to immigrate abroad. Enacting and tightening up environmental protection policies will be the way to fix the issue, but it will also come at a huge cost - more manufacturers moving out, further driving up unemployment.

The only way out is innovation, and that's something that will take a huge cultural change for China to transition into.

I don't think you read the actual article.

 

[Blackstone]

...
The only way out is innovation, and that's something that will take a huge cultural change for China to transition into.

O'RLY? And what "huge cultural change" do you claim is needed for China to innovate?

 

[Blackstone]

So this is proof that Communism actually worked for the purposes of equality, and that the PRC hasn't been Communist for a looong time.

It's proof the Communist Party of China is very, very, very good at concentrating wealth among the plutocrats, at the expense of the common people. That's probably why Xi Jinping said if not controlled, corruption would be the death of the CCP.

 

[SamuraiBlue]

Chinese should shed some Confucius elements in respecting elders which really does not work in academia where you are suppose to embrace new ideas no matter who came up with it.

 

[AndrewS]

O'RLY? And what "huge cultural change" do you claim is needed for China to innovate?

Yup. China as a country is culturally more innovative and accepting of diversity than Korea or Japan.

China is also the only developing country in the world that has the R&D spending intensity of a developed nation.

It's at 2.1% of GDP so far, which is already more the EU.
Plus the target is 2.5% of GDP by 2020, which is almost at the US level of 2.7%.

And remember that the Chinese economy is already larger than the EU or US in many respects, and will likely grow much faster to 2020.

 

[PanAsian]

It's proof the Communist Party of China is very, very, very good at concentrating wealth among the plutocrats, at the expense of the common people. That's probably why Xi Jinping said if not controlled, corruption would be the death of the CCP.

Actually wealth concentration happens to every capitalist country that goes through economic growth, and there is always overlap among the segment of population who wields economic power and those who wield political power. Correlation is not causation, China is just like every other country out there.

 

[Blitzo]

Chinese should shed some Confucius elements in respecting elders which really does not work in academia where you are suppose to embrace new ideas no matter who came up with it.

I think there's nothing wrong with respecting the ideas of elder's, the issue is also respecting ideas via critical interrogation and not dismissing new academic or scientific ideas for not being from elders. Though I'm not sure if this is evident in China's academia. I mean, the science and academic community in China does have some organizational issues which limits some of its potential to a degree but I don't think what you described is necessarily one of the major issues.

I also don't think the idea is particularly present in China's contemporary social sphere -- there is great respect and understanding regarding the value of innovation, and more often than not that innovation comes from newcomers and younger individuals, an idea which contemporary Chinese society seems to accept without much qualms.

 

[Blitzo]

It's proof the Communist Party of China is very, very, very good at concentrating wealth among the plutocrats, at the expense of the common people. That's probably why Xi Jinping said if not controlled, corruption would be the death of the CCP.

I think Panasian was making the statement half in jest, and half in relation to the fact that China's just a capitalist country like any other.

In any case, wealth inequality is undeniably negative for all countries, not only China.
In the US as well, it's been said that the top 20% own 84% of total wealth in the nation or that the top 0.1% own a staggering 22% from 7% three decades ago.

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