Chinese Economics Thread

Ultra

Junior Member
Size has a lot to do with how a country is organized. Switzerland and US are both federations so are more alike in some respects than Switzerland and The Netherlands. However Switzerland modelling itself on US or US on Switzerland is rightly unthinkable while The Netherlands and Switzerland might teach each other some things.



I think China is already in the middle phase of its development towards becoming more like Singapore - it is entering the middle income bracket, it is now the economic powerhouse of the world, it has the centralized leadership that can do anything they want. And ever since Xi Jinping became the leader, he has work tirelessly to try to eliminate corruption - the next phase to make China more like Singapore.


As Deng Xiaoping said in 1992: "Singapore's social order is rather good. Its leaders exercise strict management. We should learn from their experience, and we should do a better job than they do."

"Deng explicitly called upon Guangdong Province to catch up with the "four dragons" over the next two decades, "not only catching up with them in terms of economic prosperity but also in terms of social order and public conduct."

"Deng has also called for China to build "several Hong Kongs" along its coast, and Wu Bangguo, the Communist Party leader in Shanghai, was recently even more explicit. Mr. Wu reportedly told a visitor that China aimed to learn from the policies of South Korea and Singapore in developing their economies."


"The emulation of Singapore, an island-state whose population of 2.7 million is 77 percent ethnic Chinese, reflects a growing consensus among China's leaders that prosperity and order are more important than Marxist ideology. Singapore is attractive in that it has enjoyed an economic miracle with political stability in a system dominated by a single political party that the voters regularly return to power by overwhelming margins."

"The talk about Singapore says a lot about what Deng wants," said a Chinese economist. "He would like to free up the economy, but he wants tight political control." Clean and Orderly


"Singapore not only has very few street protests; it has a cleanliness and orderliness that critics find dreary and antiseptic but that Mr. Deng regards as inspiring. There is no pornography, no extreme poverty, little corruption and not much spitting or littering in public. Bubble gum is prohibited, and critical foreign publications are sometimes banned."


"Of course old Deng likes Singapore," said a young Chinese Government official. "It's run by Chinese, it's efficient, it's rich, and no one jabbers about human rights."


"The point is that Mr. Deng increasingly seems to regard Communist economic dogma -- state ownership and central planning -- as details that can be fudged. On the other hand, the bedrock of Chinese Communism, on which no compromise is allowed, is continued political control and maintenance of social order. This conception of government rests less on Marx than on Confucius. The sense of continuity from earlier Chinese dynasties, less visible in the Maoist era, has become more apparent in the last decade. The core convictions of "Emperor Deng" seem to have little to do with economic ideology. Instead, what Mr. Deng is passionate about is the Communist dynasty's right to rule and the need for a strong central government."


Fast forward to 2015, what a difference 22 years make. More than ever, China is no longer Marxist, and the communist party's "right to rule" is nowadays rest solely on its economic management of the country,, and increasingly the wellbeing of its citizens (pollution being one of the top agenda for the past 2 years). The article is proven more than prophetic, the communist party has dump the marxism completely and now trying to revive the Confucianism.

The Chinese Communist Party's Confucian Revival

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Confucius rises as Communist Party revives tradition
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!



"The redesign of the Communist road is evident when officials are asked what kind of a country they are trying to build. Officials sometimes describe their work as "mozhe shitou guo he" -- crossing the river by feeling with one's feet for the stones to step on. But there tend to be long silences when they are asked what is on the other side of the river."


"Lei Yu, a prominent reformist who is now vice chairman of the Guangxi region in southern China, ventured an answer to that question in an interview earlier this year. Whatever changes, he said, the fundamental aim of Chinese socialism is collective prosperity and the absence of large income gaps between the rich and poor."

"If people live better, without big income gaps, that's the important thing," Mr. Lei said.


"China's leaders seem much more envious of Singaporean wealth than of its voting system, and some of the "four dragons" in the past combined bustling markets with brutal repression. That deft combination may be what China's leaders hope to adopt for themselves."


I think that has already come true, the chinese communist party will not renounce their power, that's a certainty. Most of the chinese population at this stage does not want democracy either (I have asked many mainland chinese about this - mostly my in-laws who are self-made millionaires from Guangzhou and very rich by chinese standard - they are extremely skeptical about democracy, for example my sister-in-law who is educated in the west with a master degree in accounting said it pointedly "what's so good about democracy" even though she lives in a democratic country the same sentiment echo by her relatives).

I think as long as the communist party don't make any major mistakes it will continue to be in absolute power for the foreseeable future, just like Singapore, Saudi Arabia.

Funny thing, I have asked many of my Singaporean friends the same thing, and talked to a Saudi one time too, and they are FIERCE defendent of their own regime. If you don't believe me, ask people who come from these two countries.
 

Ultra

Junior Member
that's not going to happen. the whole AIIB spectacle already shows us how the US will behave against a rising power. when Xi jinping said ''the pacific ocean is big enough for both the US and China'' he was extending his hand out for cooperation but what china got was exactly opposite. I think Beijing has no illusions about the US and expect full confrontation and sabotage in the coming years. the next stage for the anti china roadshow will be the upcoming Shangri la dialogue in Singapore. it will be entertaining indeed.


I totally agree. What Obama's China strategy ever since he was in power is quite a trainwreck of a foreign policy. He has continued to alienate and antagonized China with his progressively stronger containment strategy, while not realizing the power has largely shifted. It is true America is currently still the world's sole superpower, but China's ascendance to be the sole superpower is coming. China can internalize its economy now (which is what they are doing right now) and grow bigger without even the export (as half of its billion population is now flush with disposable income and still growing), its education system is getting better and its workforce are getting better (with often college education), they will soon be able to punch above its own weight just like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore did - a very high educated society with high technology and sound economic mangament.

Can you imagine China punch above its own weight?! That will be unparallel in mankind's history - 1.5 billion highly educated, highly productive high tech society. It will make today's America look like a third world country. And I think that's exactly what China wants to become.

One of the thing I found it ironic is that, America has largely gave China the capital to be what it is today - it gave China the financial capital (FDI) early in the liberalization, laid the foundation for China's modernity with technology transfer (ToT), setting up research centers and regionial headquarters which laid the foundation of China's glimpse into modern corporate structure and governance. And just when China's population grow rich and is good time for American to reap the reward of its hardwork in laying the foundation, instead they cut off the relationship by antagonizing China and trying to move away from China, which only leaves all the reward to China's own people (or native corporation).
 
Last edited:

Ultra

Junior Member
(Continuing last post)

What Obama should have done is to INCREASE the cooperation and trade, ToT, and FDI, encourage even more two way communication and cooperations, which will benefit both countries and enmesh China in the international system and rule of law, decrease hostility of both countries, make it easier for citizens of both countries to get VISA (right now it is a nightmare), increase understanding not only at the high level but also at general population level, all these will benefit both countries tremendously. But instead, all Obama did for the past few years only increase hostilities of both countries, drove China to even greater arm race (which America will not, and cannot win in the long run).
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
Furious 7 just made $250 million in the Chinese box office in just 8 days. It made $295 million in 17 days in the US. A new milestone since all the previous Hollywood movies that were more successful in China underperformed in the US. Furious 7 beat expectations by a large margin in the US box office.
 

Equation

Lieutenant General
Furious 7 just made $250 million in the Chinese box office in just 8 days. It made $295 million in 17 days in the US. A new milestone since all the previous Hollywood movies that were more successful in China underperformed in the US. Furious 7 beat expectations by a large margin in the US box office.
I don't even like the Fast and Furious series. No worries the Star Wars new movie will over take that in less than a week.:D
 

Ultra

Junior Member
That'll be interesting to see what happens. The Star Wars movies that were released in China didn't do that well.


When was the last Star Wars movie released there? The Episode 1-3? That must have been over 10 years ago! Episode 1 was shown in cinemas in China on 5th of November, 1999! Back then China havn't even join the WTO and majority of the people are still very very poor with little disposable incomes. The last Star Wars Episode 3 Revenge of the Sith was on Chinese theaters was 19th of May, 2005.... China got quite a bit richer but still relatively poor. That's why the poor box office.

Even right now China is still consider relative poor in GDP (nominal) per capita term - it is just a little bit better than Botswana and Iraq! The middle class only very recently for the past few years have swell in ranks to several hundred millions, with a lot more disposable incomes, that's why you see the flood of Chinese tourists everywhere in the recent years. And they will continue to grow!

China is still in the growth phase (even though lately it looks like they are slowing down) - they are entering the phase the four asian tigers went through back in the early 80s - export driven explosive growth follow by stablization and transitioning to stable sustainable growth of 90s. The middle class's income will continue to rise, and there will be massive immigration waves hitting western countries soon (as more upper-middle class want better lives for themselves and their children in less polluted environment, better education, and prestige!)
 
Last edited:

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
The 3D version of the Phantom Menace was released in China around when the 3D version of Jurassic Park made $50 million. It did less than half of that. Given 3D is popular in China, it didn't do that well.
 

Ultra

Junior Member
I just took another look at the GDP stats. China is still poorer than Iran, Brazil, Botswana, Libya (!), Iraq(!), Thailand(!), Dominican Republic (!) in GDP per capita term. Two of these countries mentioned before are in intense civil war (Libya and Iraq)! And two of these countries have deplorable living standards where people live in grass huts (Botswana and Dominican Republic)!

Even Mexico and Lebanon are significantly richer than China (~$18,000 vs $12,000)! The currently heavily indebted Greece is richer than China. So China definitely still have a lot of room to grow.

China wants to be in the high-middile income country bracket - basically around New Zealand or South Korea (currently around ~$36,000) which would mean China needs to grow and triple its economy to reach that goal. Currently Chinese economy is $17 trillion, "tripling" that would mean growing the chinese economy to $51 billion - a unfathomable number since that would be about half of the world's output.
 

Ultra

Junior Member
The 3D version of the Phantom Menace was released in China around when the 3D version of Jurassic Park made $50 million. It did less than half of that. Given 3D is popular in China, it didn't do that well.


Maybe Star Wars just didn't tick Chinese fancy ;). Given Chinese love of sword fights (the endless chinese "Wuxia" movies) the problem is probably just Star Wars is a bit too hard to understand for the general public. I think Sci-fi will be a very very popular genre soon as Chinese will start look into the future instead of the past. Right now it seems there is very very few sci-fi or modern movie/TV series in China. Majority are just the re-hash of old stuff over and over and over.....
Compare to the american movie and TV series which are mostly set in present or the future (apocalypse seems to be extremely popular) with very very few exception (Game of Thrones!).

This kind of tells a lot about the culture - American looks to the future, while Chinese still looks into and hangs on to the past. This has to change, and this will change as China continue to modernize.
 
Last edited:
Top