Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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Yes, but Tphuang also said that there aren't many projects actually progressing at present.
This war and oil price will undoubtedly spur them on, but it will still take some time.
One of the projects, 320,000 tons of green ammonia in production, planning to build a another one with 1,520,000 tons capacity.
Yep. Looks like 2 years for a new Green Ammonia plant to be built.
The economics aren't quite there yet for Green Ammonia to compete with Chinese coal-based Ammonia although it will get there. Looks like $500 / tonne currently at Chifeng, but dropping to below $400 / tonne by 2028.
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If we analyse the 320,000 tonne Envision Phase 1 project, it's going to consume ~3 Billion kWh
If the electricity cost is a very low 2.5c/kWh, that is $75Million
Then the plant costs $1.5 Billion. If we assume financing at 3% for 25 years, that is another $85 Million annually.
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So overall, green Ammonia comes to:
Overall Cost = $499 / tonne
-Capital costs = $265/ tonne
-Electricity costs = $234 / tonne
That is significantly more expensive than Ammonia based on Chinese coal ($300-$350).
But it is less expensive the recent price spikes to $500-$600 that we currently see in Europe, the Middle East and North America. But still more expensive than usual Ammonia prices elsewhere. Plus we have transport costs.
keep in mind that all these projects are still in the trial phase. The eventual capacity will be huge, but it is impossible for even the current official capacity to be reached. You cannot possibly reach that point without a lot of trial and learning. This is a new industry and people involved are still learning and the electrolysis themselves still need time to mature. This was the lesson of the Kuqa project by Sinopec in its early days. We will get there but it will take time.
For the immediate time period, China is going to have to rely on more coal to liquid and higher input prices.
In the first two months of 2026, a total of 8,631 new foreign-invested firms were established across China, up 14% YoY; actual use of FDI in the Chinese mainland totaled 161.45 billion yuan, down 5.7% YoY, but high-tech industries attracting 63.21 billion yuan in FDI, up 20.4% YoY and accounting for 39.2% of the total.
investment in China from Canada and Switzerland surged 210% and 41.3% year on year, respectively. Ministry of commerce announced on Monday.
investment in China from Canada and Switzerland surged 210% and 41.3% year on year, respectively. Ministry of commerce announced on Monday.
More energy charts given the current oil & gas crisis
not very dependent on oil & gas at all. refined crude export ban hurts Singapore, Philippines and Australia the most. But honestly, that doesn't contribute all that much to China's overall exports. Protecting domestic economy comes first. But it's probably killing the importing countries now. Those 3 are crying.
not very dependent on oil & gas at all. refined crude export ban hurts Singapore, Philippines and Australia the most. But honestly, that doesn't contribute all that much to China's overall exports. Protecting domestic economy comes first. But it's probably killing the importing countries now. Those 3 are crying.
supercat
Colonel
AI, EV, and the high-speed rail system all need electricity.
