Chinese Economics Thread

[antiterror13]

China's GDP is expected to grow by over 6 trillion yuan (about $869.6 billion) in 2025

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Almost as big as Taiwan's GDP $971B, bigger than Belgium's or Ireland's ~$750B. bigger than Israel's or Singapore's or Argentina's ~$600B

Much bigger than Vietnam's or Malaysia's or Philippines's or Denmark's ~$500B

More than double of Pakistan's or Egypt's or South Africa's ~$400B

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[antiterror13]

China in 2030, the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), good illustration

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A bit surprised that the target of annual grain production to 725M tons in 2030. In 2025, it has achieved ~715M tons. So only 10M tons in 5 years or 2M tons per year ? I think the target is a bit to "easy", I thought would be like 750M tons, considering China is very aggresively researching National Salt-Alkali Tolerant Rice Technology Innovation Center (founded by the late "Father of Hybrid Rice," Yuan Longping).

The goal is to reclaim about 6.7 million hectares (100 million mu) of this salty land by 2030.

Also Salt-Tolerant Wheat, already in Large-Scale Trials. New varieties like Yangmai 25 are producing up to 9 tons/hectare in late-season salty soils.

Salt-Tolerant Soy, early Expansion. Massive trials in Shandong (Yellow River Delta) are testing soy as a "high-value" salty crop.

 

[SanWenYu]

China in 2030, the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), good illustration

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A bit surprised that the target of annual grain production to 725M tons in 2030. In 2025, it has achieved ~715M tons. So only 10M tons in 5 years or 2M tons per year ? I think the target is a bit to "easy", I thought would be like 750M tons, considering China is very aggresively researching National Salt-Alkali Tolerant Rice Technology Innovation Center (founded by the late "Father of Hybrid Rice," Yuan Longping).

The goal is to reclaim about 6.7 million hectares (100 million mu) of this salty land by 2030.

Also Salt-Tolerant Wheat, already in Large-Scale Trials. New varieties like Yangmai 25 are producing up to 9 tons/hectare in late-season salty soils.

Salt-Tolerant Soy, early Expansion. Massive trials in Shandong (Yellow River Delta) are testing soy as a "high-value" salty crop.

Perhaps some wiggle room for unfavourable climate change.

 

[antiterror13]

Perhaps some wiggle room for unfavourable climate change.

or just to have easy "life" by having easy target which may be achieved in 2027

 

[zbb]

China in 2030, the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), good illustration

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A bit surprised that the target of annual grain production to 725M tons in 2030. In 2025, it has achieved ~715M tons. So only 10M tons in 5 years or 2M tons per year ? I think the target is a bit to "easy", I thought would be like 750M tons, considering China is very aggresively researching National Salt-Alkali Tolerant Rice Technology Innovation Center (founded by the late "Father of Hybrid Rice," Yuan Longping).

The goal is to reclaim about 6.7 million hectares (100 million mu) of this salty land by 2030.

Also Salt-Tolerant Wheat, already in Large-Scale Trials. New varieties like Yangmai 25 are producing up to 9 tons/hectare in late-season salty soils.

Salt-Tolerant Soy, early Expansion. Massive trials in Shandong (Yellow River Delta) are testing soy as a "high-value" salty crop.

China doesn't need any more grain production. Chinese population is no longer growing. China's per capita calorie intake already surpassed Europe and South Korea, and far exceeds that of Japan. If anything, Chinese consumption of refined grains is already at an unhealthy high level as evidenced by China having similar rates of diabetes as the US.

 

[henrik]

China doesn't need any more grain production. Chinese population is no longer growing. China's per capita calorie intake already surpassed Europe and South Korea, and far exceeds that of Japan. If anything, Chinese consumption of refined grains is already at an unhealthy high level as evidenced by China having similar rates of diabetes as the US.

More grain production is necessary for reducing dependent on imports from foreign adverseries.

 

[antiterror13]

China doesn't need any more grain production. Chinese population is no longer growing. China's per capita calorie intake already surpassed Europe and South Korea, and far exceeds that of Japan. If anything, Chinese consumption of refined grains is already at an unhealthy high level as evidenced by China having similar rates of diabetes as the US.

I think there is a terminology in economic called "Export", ring a bell?

Also do you know that China is the biggest importer of grains in the world?
Soybeans over 100 million tons (MT)
Barley over 10MT
Sorghum over 4.5MT
Wheat over 4MT
Rice over 3MT
etc
TOTAL over 140MT

Also R & D in grain technologies is super important, nothing to do with obese

 

[zbb]

I think there is a terminology in economic called "Export", ring a bell?

Also do you know that China is the biggest importer of grains in the world?
Soybeans over 100 million tons (MT)
Barley over 10MT
Sorghum over 4.5MT
Wheat over 4MT
Rice over 3MT
etc
TOTAL over 140MT

Also R & D in grain technologies is super important, nothing to do with obese

Soybean is a legume, not a grain!

Your numbers actually prove my point. China's biggest agricultural import dependence by far is soybeans, not grains. As a country with very limited arable land for the size of its population, should China prioritize reducing its massive soybean dependence on imports or use its limited land resources to increase production of grains that it's essentially already self-sufficient on?

Soybeans are also significantly more expensive than grains and require far less fertilizer input (with crop rotation, growing soybeans will even reduce fertilizer use for other crops). So even completely ignoring food self-sufficiency concerns, it is far more economical to use limited land resources to increase high margin soybean production instead of low margin grains.

 

[zbb]

Soybean is a legume, not a grain!

Your numbers actually prove my point. China's biggest agricultural import dependence by far is soybeans, not grains. As a country with very limited arable land for the size of its population, should China prioritize reducing its massive soybean dependence on imports or use its limited land resources to increase production of grains that it's essentially already self-sufficient on?

Soybeans are also significantly more expensive than grains and require far less fertilizer input (with crop rotation, growing soybeans will even reduce fertilizer use for other crops). So even completely ignoring food self-sufficiency concerns, it is far more economical to use limited land resources to increase high margin soybean production instead of low margin grains.

I looked into this more. It appears China's definition of 粮食 includes grains as well as soybeans, potatos, etc. So I stand corrected, the planned increase in total 粮食 production from 715 Mt to 725 Mt is indeed somewhat conservative.

 

[Michael90]

China's GDP is expected to grow by over 6 trillion yuan (about $869.6 billion) in 2025

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Almost as big as Taiwan's GDP $971B, bigger than Belgium's or Ireland's ~$750B. bigger than Israel's or Singapore's or Argentina's ~$600B

Much bigger than Vietnam's or Malaysia's or Philippines's or Denmark's ~$500B

More than double of Pakistan's or Egypt's or South Africa's ~$400B

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Very good, but former estimates used to put China growth by over a trillion dollar a year by this time . So estimates can often be wrong as well. Still very decent performance though .