Chinese Economics Thread

[SampanViking]

I am just wondering, instead of focusing on the much more difficult to achieve TPP, why don't the US concentrate more on bilateral free trade agreements like these?

I think a lot of people are asking this very same question and it is the obvious reticence of the US to abandon TPP and switch to bilaterals which is causing a lot of concern and raising suspicions; aired as conspiracy theories of nearly every stripe.

If you want to take a more benign view, it is that there are so many (conflicting) interests intent on making sure that they are represented (and advantageously) in the agreement, that you have the ultimate agreement designed by a committee!

 

[solarz]

I think a lot of people are asking this very same question and it is the obvious reticence of the US to abandon TPP and switch to bilaterals which is causing a lot of concern and raising suspicions; aired as conspiracy theories of nearly every stripe.

If you want to take a more benign view, it is that there are so many (conflicting) interests intent on making sure that they are represented (and advantageously) in the agreement, that you have the ultimate agreement designed by a committee!

This is also a fundamental characteristic of US foreign policy. Where China conducts its foreign policy through bilateral negotiations, the US is always wanting to bring a "committee" into every issue.

 

[no_name]

I simply do not understand why some people (not just Australians, people in general), think that they know better than the government which has been negotiating this stuff for years. Maybe they don't trust their government.

I have full trust in my government in negotiating in the best interest of the Chinese nation and the Chinese people.

Similar to kids complaining to their parents about this and that but then they are not the ones who have to balance the bills or put food on the table.

 

[broadsword]

I am just wondering, instead of focusing on the much more difficult to achieve TPP, why don't the US concentrate more on bilateral free trade agreements like these?

As Assassinmace reiterated, it is all about politics - to isolate China's influence.

 

[shen]

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The yen has indeed fallen sharply against the dollar over the past two years. Initially it was believed that this would do more to increase Japanese exports than tariff cuts under the TPP would achieve. However, the export volume has not increased as much as anticipated because so many Japanese manufacturers had already shifted production bases overseas to serve markets that have growing demand. Given this, tariff cuts under a TPP deal might not bring much benefit in terms of increased exports.

Japan should refrain from making easy concessions that won’t enhance its economic interests. The bottom line is that the government needs to carefully consider all possible gains and losses, and try to shape the outcome of TPP talks in ways that would truly benefit Japan’s economy and people.

one guess which country is the market that has growing demand

 

[AssassinsMace]

Yeah, I've been reading how with Republicans talking over Congress it makes fast track authority getting passed easier. But it's a Democrat in the White House! Why would they give that to him?

 

[AssassinsMace]

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Here's something interesting. If it works and South Korea benefits tremendously, everyone will want it too. Now the questions... South Korea, along with Singapore, is said to be a junior unofficial partner in the 5-Eyes spying alliance. Then on the other end, look at how the US pressured to cancel the Huawei deal with South Korea seeing it as a national security threat. I'll assume these issues are discussed because it better be a two-way street.

 

[getready]

The key points listed by BBC:

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China-Australia free trade deal: key points

* Gives Australian exporters wider access to the lucrative Chinese market and private Chinese investors more freedom to put their money in Australia.

* About 85% of Australian exports into China will not incur tariffs, including dairy, beef, leather, mineral commodities and horticulture. Set to increase to 95% on full implementation of the deal.

* Chinese exports to Australia such as clothes, shoes, vehicles and electronics will be tariff-free.

* Threshold for Chinese investment in Australia without need for a government review raised to A$1.078bn from A$248m.

* Service sectors in both countries will benefit with freer access to industries such as healthcare, tourism, construction, banking and insurance.

Concessions from both parties:

* Australia failed to get a reduction in tariffs on key commodities such as rice, wheat, cotton and sugar.

* China was not able to get Australia to change its practise of scrutiny by the foreign investment review board on all investment by state-owned enterprises, which make up most of Chinese investments.

From what I've been reading in the papers here. The Aus dairy, financial and health industry will be the major winners here.
Especially the dairy farmers. Access to that huge market will be tremendously profitable.


China still can't get the restriction on SOE to invest in Aus lifted. Which was a big sticking point during the negotiations.

 

[Martian]

Is China's economy larger than US? You decide.

I think the United States should recognize China as an equal. Here's why.

Chinese nominal GDP is closing in on US nominal GDP. According to the IMF October World Economic Outlook for 2014:
#1 US: $17.4 trillion
#2 China: $10.4 trillion

* According to the CIA Factbook, "China's exchange rate is determined by fiat, rather than by market forces, the official exchange rate measure of GDP is not an accurate measure of China's output; GDP at the official exchange rate substantially understates the actual level of China's output vis-a-vis the rest of the world; in China's situation, GDP at purchasing power parity provides the best measure for comparing output across countries."

According to BP (p. 40 on "Primary energy consumption") for the year 2013, China and the US are the world's two largest energy users.
#1 China: 2,852 Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent (MTOE)
#2 US: 2,266

According to the Wall Street Journal for year 2013, China and the US are the world's two largest electricity consumers.
#1 China: 5.3 trillion kilowatt-hours
#2 US: 3.8 trillion kilowatt-hours

Finally, China and the US are also the world's two largest car markets (sales from 2013).
#1 China: 22 million cars/light-vehicles
#2 United States: 15.6 million
#3 Japan: 5.4 million
...
India: 1.8 million
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My pseudonym is "China Lee." I've been posting for over 3 years under "China Lee."

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BP source:

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[getready]

I simply do not understand why some people (not just Australians, people in general), think that they know better than the government which has been negotiating this stuff for years. Maybe they don't trust their government.

I have full trust in my government in negotiating in the best interest of the Chinese nation and the Chinese people.

There is that no doubt. Especially those that didn't vote for the LNP. But there is underlying anti china sentiment. And distrust of china. China bashers in Aus forums are already talking about Chinese stealing their jobs, pushing property prices, gobbling Aus assets....etc BEFORE the FTA was reached. It's gonna get worse