Chinese Economics Thread

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Btw number not finalised yet, but I expect that by end of 2024, China's GDP reached approx 135 trillion RMB

for 1 dollar to:
8 RMB: $16.87 trillion
7 RMB: $19.28 trillion
6 RMB: $22.5 trillion
5 RMB: $27 trillion

Just pick whatever number suits your agenda better. IMO the real value of 1 dollar is probably less than 5 RMB, but anyways..
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
Simple question. Who cares? And why even bring up people's feelings when we're really just talking about tangible economics?

I brought it to the other guy who I responded, not you originally.

US dominates the global financial system,

True.

and that'll likely persist for many years to come.

True, but only IF the US doesn't make any stupid moves again like sanctioning Russia, for example sanctioning China. But that would be 100 worse for them in terms of not only the global financial system but many more.

And yes, that's a huge economic asset for United States, especially in its economic competition with China.

No, it literally has 0 value in competition with China since it couldn't even have any effect on much weaker Russia.

It can at most be used to destabilize some smaller countries like Venezuela and Iran, but even their regimes, however weekend, are still operating.

They grew because the Russian government, correctly, prioritized massive government spending to provide its soldiers with everything they need to fight in Ukraine.

No - it was because of increased production and economic activity and spending, simply as that. That's called "economic growth", GDP growth however you want to call it. This was because sanctions served as some kind of shock therapy for the entire society. There is a direct reason and correlation why I said that sanctions fully HELPED Russia which you know nothing about. For example, stuff that you used to buy from the West, you now produce domestically, no wonder there is record low unemployment, 4% GDP growth first time in a long time, etc.

If the increase in GDP was caused by military investment, you would have a rising fiscal deficit to GDP ratio, not falling, you would also have a rising debt to GDP ratio, not falling, as a country goes into debt to finance all that military spending. Instead, that was clearly not the case. It is obvious that the rise in GDP is coming from the civil sector. The whole UKR war served as some kind of electric shock therapy to the whole economy/country, it forced all people to put more effort, and eliminate inefficiencies, both in terms of politicians, and local entrepreneurs.

Similar things happened to the Chinese "sanctioned" chip sector if you have been paying attention. Sanctions only served to add urgency in political and business circles and force them to develop domestic production for sanctioned products that previously not only didn't have production but also lacked demand. This is why I said all that US "dominance" in such "soft" fields, like financial and economic sanctions, is useless against peer and near-peer competitors; You need to defeat them with hard power, which is INDUSTRIAL power mainly.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
Converting 126 trillion RMB to USD at current market prices is 17$ trillion
Dude there's no such thing as a place where you can convert billions let alone trillions to another currency by "market" (airport) exchange rates. If you have read econ you'd know that.

Lets examine what happens if we convert currencies like this with a flat rate instead of following a statistical model:

You're asserting that a road that costs 10 million USD in US costs exactly 73 million RMB in China. Or the rent prices in US comes out exactly the same as rent prices in China, besides the 7.33 multiplier.

Remember gdp is a model to examine economy scale. So you have constructed a model where no one in China will be able to afford their necessities, where people are driving around on roads that don't physically exist in your model, on cars that don't exist, because they're not affordable at this airport exchange rate scaling to USD you're using. Government and companies are starting, working on and completing projects they could not afford in USD terms.

What sort of crazy world have you created?

Needless to say, this is not a viable model.

The statement that you have made with your airport exchange rate hypothesis is that in this world, where 1 USD -> 7.33 RMB perfectly scales up to trillions of RMB and Chinese ships dock at harbors that don't exist, construction workers build on projects the firms can't pay for, US would have a larger economy. And that is correct. But we also don't live in this hypothetical world.
 

abenomics12345

Junior Member
Registered Member
Btw number not finalised yet, but I expect that by end of 2024, China's GDP reached approx 135 trillion RMB

for 1 dollar to:
8 RMB: $16.87 trillion
7 RMB: $19.28 trillion
6 RMB: $22.5 trillion
5 RMB: $27 trillion

Just pick whatever number suits your agenda better. IMO the real value of 1 dollar is probably less than 5 RMB, but anyways..

Dude there's no such thing as a place where you can convert billions let alone trillions to another currency by "market" (airport) exchange rates. If you have read econ you'd know that.

Lets examine what happens if we convert currencies like this with a flat rate instead of following a statistical model:

You're asserting that a road that costs 10 million USD in US costs exactly 73 million RMB in China. Or the rent prices in US comes out exactly the same as rent prices in China, besides the 7.33 multiplier.

Remember gdp is a model to examine economy scale. So you have constructed a model where no one in China will be able to afford their necessities, where people are driving around on roads that don't physically exist in your model, on cars that don't exist, because they're not affordable at this airport exchange rate scaling to USD you're using. Government and companies are starting, working on and completing projects they could not afford in USD terms.

What sort of crazy world have you created?

Needless to say, this is not a viable model.

The statement that you have made with your airport exchange rate hypothesis is that in this world, where 1 USD -> 7.33 RMB perfectly scales up to trillions of RMB and Chinese ships dock at harbors that don't exist, construction workers build on projects the firms can't pay for, US would have a larger economy. And that is correct. But we also don't live in this hypothetical world.

The statement that you have made with your airport exchange rate hypothesis is that in this world, where 1 USD -> 7.33 RMB perfectly scales up to trillions of RMB and Chinese ships dock at harbors that don't exist, construction workers build on projects the firms can't pay for, US would have a larger economy. And that is correct. But we also don't live in this hypothetical world.

Wire me 10k USD and I'll wire you whatever number below 73.3k RMB.

As I made perfectly clear earlier in this thread:

When you ask this question, you really should consider whether you believe India's 15 trln GDP in USD (PPP).

GDP is just a market price measurement - it does not consider under value or over value. Much like how Pettis is an idiot for calling Chinese GDP 'fake' because it's supposedly 'overvalued', it is similarly dumb to call US GDP 'fake' because it's 'overfinancialized'.

The legitimate criticism is that the US GDP is 'unsustainable' given the underlying structural problems and it may implode in the future. Similarly, the legitimate point is that Chinese GDP has 'opportunities' for reflation where the market price is more consistent with 'value'.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
Wire me 10k USD and I'll wire you whatever number below 73.3k RMB.

As I made perfectly clear earlier in this thread:
Don't deflect with dumb strawmen. We are talking about national economies.

So you believe in the 17T $ China economy theory? By that theory, there are schroedinger's cars driving on schroedinger's streets in China, since China's net worth wouldn't be enough to buy them, yet apparently they exist in real life.

So why don't you put your actions where your mouth are and go somewhere in China, then jump infront of one? The mighty airport dollar rate will turn the car into thin air and save you, just like it turned 37T Chinese economy to 17T lol
 
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Xiongmao

Junior Member
Registered Member
My guy, I believe the only true way to measure economic size is to use GDP at constant dollar prices which strips out the effect of inflation. We all know what bogus BS the US inflation numbers are. We go to
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if we want real inflation numbers that keep the calculation methodology consistent historically. I asked deepseek to give the real GDP at constant 2010 dollar prices given that we use the ShadowStats inflation figures and we end up with the following numbers below. This shows that China's real GDP is $17.6tn vs the US's GDP of $11.4tn which feels about right. Of course China's GDP is understated too which will make this gap even wider.


Real GDP at 2010 Prices Adjusted Using ShadowStats Inflation Methodology

YearUSA Real GDP (2010 Prices, in billions of USD)China Real GDP (2010 Prices, in billions of USD)
2010$16,960$6,040
2011$16,500$6,680
2012$16,100$7,320
2013$15,800$7,980
2014$15,400$8,680
2015$15,000$9,390
2016$14,600$10,140
2017$14,200$10,930
2018$13,800$11,810
2019$13,400$12,650
2020$13,000$13,200
2021$12,600$14,200
2022$12,200$14,970
2023$11,800$16,230
2024$11,400 (Q3 estimate)$17,590 (estimate)

Key Notes:​

  1. USA Real GDP: Adjusted downward to reflect higher inflation rates implied by ShadowStats' methodology .
  2. China Real GDP: Converted to USD using the 2010 exchange rate (6.77 CNY/USD) and adjusted for ShadowStats' inflation methodology .
  3. Estimates: Data for 2024 are projections based on current trends and ShadowStats' inflation assumptions.

Observations:​

  • USA: The adjusted real GDP figures show slower growth due to higher inflation rates. For example, the 2024 estimate is reduced from 23,400billion(official)to23,400billion(official)to11,400 billion .
  • China: Despite the adjustments, China's real GDP in USD terms continues to grow rapidly, reaching 17,590billionin2024,comparedtotheU.S.figureof17,590billionin2024,comparedtotheU.S.figureof11,400 billion .
 

SanWenYu

Captain
Registered Member
China just increased its global share of Lithium reserves from 6% to 16.5%. This also moved China's global ranking in Lithium reserves from the 6th largest to the 2nd.

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新华网北京1月8日电(记者刘军)记者获悉,在新一轮找矿突破战略行动的推动下,自然资源部中国地质调查局联合各省地勘单位和矿业企业,在全国范围内展开了找矿集中攻坚行动,并在四川、新疆、青海、江西、内蒙古等地取得了一系列重大突破,锂辉石型、盐湖型、锂云母型锂矿新增资源量均超千万吨,使我国锂矿储量全球占比由6%提升至16.5%,排名从第六位跃升至第二位。

记者了解到,新发现西昆仑—松潘—甘孜长达2800千米的世界级锂辉石型锂成矿带,累计探明储量650余万吨,资源潜力超3000万吨,极大丰富了我国锂矿种类,拓展了找矿范围,为我国锂矿勘查开发提供了新方向和潜力,有力推动区域经济社会发展。

经调查评价,我国盐湖锂新增资源量达1400余万吨,跃居仅次于南美锂三角和美国西部的全球第三大盐湖型锂资源基地。

据悉,攻克江西等地锂云母提锂技术难题,提高了锂云母型锂矿的利用效率和经济性,新增资源量超1000万吨。这一突破将促进湖南、内蒙古等地区形成找矿新局面,成为锂资源重要增长点。

业内专家表示,我国锂矿找矿突破重塑了全球锂资源分布格局,为我国新能源产业的快速发展奠定坚实的资源保障。
 

abenomics12345

Junior Member
Registered Member
So you believe in the 17T $ China economy theory? By that theory, there are schroedinger's cars driving on schroedinger's streets in China, since China's net worth wouldn't be enough to buy them, yet apparently they exist in real life.

So why don't you put your actions where your mouth are and go somewhere in China, then jump infront of one? The mighty airport dollar rate will turn the car into thin air and save you, just like it turned 37T Chinese economy to 17T lol

I actually live in China half the year so my money is where my mouth is at.

Do you believe the Indian economy at 15 trillion USD?

You are literally as dumb as Pettis when it comes to understanding what GDP means.
 

doggydogdo

Junior Member
Registered Member
Wire me 10k USD and I'll wire you whatever number below 73.3k RMB.

As I made perfectly clear earlier in this thread:
73.3k RMB buys A LOT more in China than 10k USD in America. China is a lot cheaper than America despite the real economy being much bigger. The only reason why US economy seems so big is because they are a service dominated economy which is based of labour, when price of labour goes up every service goes up in price making everything more expensive but changing nothing for US economy. The reason why USD is worth so much is because China doesn't sell their USD to keep RMB up lol, a weaker RMB is good for export.
I actually live in China half the year so my money is where my mouth is at.

Do you believe the Indian economy at 15 trillion USD?

You are literally as dumb as Pettis when it comes to understanding what GDP means.
If US economy was 15trillion and 4x the people it would look like india, so yeah. China on the other hand is much bigger
 
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