Chinese Economics Thread

[HighGround]

I mean by what economic measure would America be ahead in 2025?

The only thing I can think of is space payload capacity and large commercial aviation.

Which admittedly China must fix at some point but it's mostly due to institutional inertia (especially for commercial aircraft). And China can continue to use its commanding economic and industrial lead to overwhelm US companies with sheer resources.

The gap between China and US isn't as big as it was between the US and USSR, but it's still pretty noticeable. An isolated lead in commercial aviation doesn't make US an overall more powerful economy, just as USSR's lead in rocketry did not make them overall more powerful.

Well, the most basic one for starters.

Nominal GDP.

 

[Serb]

Well, the most basic one for starters.

Nominal GDP.

= You mean excessive government and bank currency printing + monopolization and price gouging + financialization servicization? Winning accounting formula!

They can certainly increase the quality of life for ordinary citizens, or amount of ships and drones they could produce with that, truly strongest "economically". Oh, wait...

 

[HighGround]

= You mean excessive government currency printing + monopoly price gouging + financialization servicization? Winning formula!

If you want to approach things from a meme angle, sure.

 

[abenomics12345]

Instead, we probably have to go in roundabout ways to find how much higher their true GDP is. It is explained well in this

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from Han Feizi. And for consumption and retail sales, there are endless threads on Glenn's Twitter. Sometimes you need to use deductive common sense in life.

= You mean excessive government currency printing + monopoly price gouging + financialization servicization? Winning formula!

I think the point you don't realize is that the US can get away with excessive spending and financialization and price gouging because it had the best technology globally.

If any other country went down the path of excessive spending + financialization + price gouging it ends up in the garbage bin (Brazil, Argentina, etc). Obviously China is a threat on the technology stack because of the immense gains in the past decade (otherwise the US wouldn't be going full Karen) - but make no mistake China is at least 5-10 years away from having a full stack of technology that is entirely competitive with the US.

 

[Quan8410]

So trump that is claiming greenland and gulf of mexico and panama for the usa is strong?

He really believe USA is strong (USA is really strong or not is entirely different matter) and can do what James K. Polk did during the Mexico-USA war. He believe USA is strong and can do like Theodore Roosevelt. China leaders clearly do not believe that China is strong enough to take back Taiwan or Southern Tibet or Vladivostok now. If they believed that they already do so. Do we have more knowledge than Chinese leaders?

 

[Serb]

If you want to approach things from a meme angle, sure.

That's not meme, that's reality. The truth is that the US economy hasn't grown in the truest sense for close to five decades already.

What grew was nominal GDP on paper - some fictional accounting bullshit, + the net worths of the wealthy. Because this is correlated.

When you charge people more, your nominal GDP grows, and share prices grow, the same as inflation (excessive currency printing + price gouging), which leads to rapid asset prices increase, this also increases the net worths of the wealthy, in addition to the nominal GDP (finance services, wealthy elites selling shares between each other over and over).

In the most fundamental sense, the US economy has been declining for decades already. It is for this reason that they overly focused on nominal GDP reporting, which favors those things I mentioned above, and why they also needed to constantly change loosen inflation formula.

 

[styx]

I think the point you don't realize is that the US can get away with excessive spending and financialization and price gouging because it had the best technology globally.

If any other country went down the path of excessive spending + financialization + price gouging it ends up in the garbage bin (Brazil, Argentina, etc). Obviously China is a threat on the technology stack because of the immense gains in the past decade (otherwise the US wouldn't be going full Karen) - but make no mistake China is at least 5-10 years away from having a full stack of technology that is entirely competitive with the US.

The issue is that the major technological strengths of the U.S. (such as chip manufacturing and EUV machines) are not located within the U.S. itself but are shared with foreign powers like Taiwan and the Netherlands.

 

[abenomics12345]

The issue is that the major technological strengths of the U.S. (such as chip manufacturing and EUV machines) are not located within the U.S. itself but are shared with foreign powers like Taiwan and the Netherlands.

That's fine, as long as the US can bully Taiwan/Netherlands to do what it wants them to do (Build at 2-3x the cost in Arizona in the former's case, and not sell to China in the latter's case).

Or, in the case of biotech - fuck with Wuxi Biologics such that customers are reticent from using their services.

 

[Serb]

I think the point you don't realize is that the US can get away with excessive spending and financialization and price gouging because it had the best technology globally.

If any other country went down the path of excessive spending + financialization + price gouging it ends up in the garbage bin (Brazil, Argentina, etc). Obviously China is a threat on the technology stack because of the immense gains in the past decade (otherwise the US wouldn't be going full Karen) - but make no mistake China is at least 5-10 years away from having a full stack of technology that is entirely competitive with the US.

They can get away =/= that they grew anything in recent decades in economic activity, not that they compare with China right now today.

Just because they can survive doing it, doesn't mean that those two things are true.

Also just to correct you on your last point, no one has the full stack of technology, well no one expects China of the future perhaps.

Certainly not the US. I mean are you sure not informed on how many high-tech areas China now has an edge over not only them but full West?

However, the question is who has the more complete technological stack now, since no one has perfect one, and I would say China for sure.

 

[HighGround]

Obviously China is a threat on the technology stack because of the immense gains in the past decade (otherwise the US wouldn't be going full Karen) - but make no mistake China is at least 5-10 years away from having a full stack of technology that is entirely competitive with the US.

China's massive advantages in scaling also present a different type of challenge

That's not meme, that's reality. The truth is that the US economy hasn't grown in the truest sense for close to five decades already.

No, it is a meme. USD's status as a world reserve currency, it's dominance in the global financial system, and its existing military might are a non-issue.

So no, it is a meme.

What grew was nominal GDP on paper - some fictional accounting bullshit, + the net worths of the wealthy. Because this is correlated.

When you charge people more, your nominal GDP grows, and share prices grow, the same as inflation (excessive currency printing + price gouging), which leads to rapid asset prices increase, this also increases the net worths of the wealthy, in addition to the nominal GDP (finance services, wealthy elites selling shares between each other over and over).

In the most fundamental sense, the US economy has been declining for decades already. It is for this reason that they overly focused on nominal GDP reporting, which favors those things I mentioned above, and why they also needed to constantly change loosen inflation formula.

Uh huh. Must be why consumer spending and wages are up

But this is the issue with you guys. You understand that US reporting on China's economy is bad, and does not adequately reflect its strength, yet are unable to apply the same critical thinking to the US Economy.