Chinese Economics Thread

[Serb]

Well, the most basic one for starters.

Nominal GDP.

= You mean excessive government and bank currency printing + monopolization and price gouging + financialization servicization? Winning accounting formula!

They can certainly increase the quality of life for ordinary citizens, or amount of ships and drones they could produce with that, truly strongest "economically". Oh, wait...

 

[HighGround]

= You mean excessive government currency printing + monopoly price gouging + financialization servicization? Winning formula!

If you want to approach things from a meme angle, sure.

 

[abenomics12345]

Instead, we probably have to go in roundabout ways to find how much higher their true GDP is. It is explained well in this

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from Han Feizi. And for consumption and retail sales, there are endless threads on Glenn's Twitter. Sometimes you need to use deductive common sense in life.

= You mean excessive government currency printing + monopoly price gouging + financialization servicization? Winning formula!

I think the point you don't realize is that the US can get away with excessive spending and financialization and price gouging because it had the best technology globally.

If any other country went down the path of excessive spending + financialization + price gouging it ends up in the garbage bin (Brazil, Argentina, etc). Obviously China is a threat on the technology stack because of the immense gains in the past decade (otherwise the US wouldn't be going full Karen) - but make no mistake China is at least 5-10 years away from having a full stack of technology that is entirely competitive with the US.

 

[Serb]

If you want to approach things from a meme angle, sure.

That's not meme, that's reality. The truth is that the US economy hasn't grown in the truest sense for close to five decades already.

What grew was nominal GDP on paper - some fictional accounting bullshit, + the net worths of the wealthy. Because this is correlated.

When you charge people more, your nominal GDP grows, and share prices grow, the same as inflation (excessive currency printing + price gouging), which leads to rapid asset prices increase, this also increases the net worths of the wealthy, in addition to the nominal GDP (finance services, wealthy elites selling shares between each other over and over).

In the most fundamental sense, the US economy has been declining for decades already. It is for this reason that they overly focused on nominal GDP reporting, which favors those things I mentioned above, and why they also needed to constantly change loosen inflation formula.

 

[styx]

I think the point you don't realize is that the US can get away with excessive spending and financialization and price gouging because it had the best technology globally.

If any other country went down the path of excessive spending + financialization + price gouging it ends up in the garbage bin (Brazil, Argentina, etc). Obviously China is a threat on the technology stack because of the immense gains in the past decade (otherwise the US wouldn't be going full Karen) - but make no mistake China is at least 5-10 years away from having a full stack of technology that is entirely competitive with the US.

The issue is that the major technological strengths of the U.S. (such as chip manufacturing and EUV machines) are not located within the U.S. itself but are shared with foreign powers like Taiwan and the Netherlands.

 

[abenomics12345]

The issue is that the major technological strengths of the U.S. (such as chip manufacturing and EUV machines) are not located within the U.S. itself but are shared with foreign powers like Taiwan and the Netherlands.

That's fine, as long as the US can bully Taiwan/Netherlands to do what it wants them to do (Build at 2-3x the cost in Arizona in the former's case, and not sell to China in the latter's case).

Or, in the case of biotech - fuck with Wuxi Biologics such that customers are reticent from using their services.

 

[Serb]

I think the point you don't realize is that the US can get away with excessive spending and financialization and price gouging because it had the best technology globally.

If any other country went down the path of excessive spending + financialization + price gouging it ends up in the garbage bin (Brazil, Argentina, etc). Obviously China is a threat on the technology stack because of the immense gains in the past decade (otherwise the US wouldn't be going full Karen) - but make no mistake China is at least 5-10 years away from having a full stack of technology that is entirely competitive with the US.

They can get away =/= that they grew anything in recent decades in economic activity, not that they compare with China right now today.

Just because they can survive doing it, doesn't mean that those two things are true.

Also just to correct you on your last point, no one has the full stack of technology, well no one expects China of the future perhaps.

Certainly not the US. I mean are you sure not informed on how many high-tech areas China now has an edge over not only them but full West?

However, the question is who has the more complete technological stack now, since no one has perfect one, and I would say China for sure.

 

[HighGround]

Obviously China is a threat on the technology stack because of the immense gains in the past decade (otherwise the US wouldn't be going full Karen) - but make no mistake China is at least 5-10 years away from having a full stack of technology that is entirely competitive with the US.

China's massive advantages in scaling also present a different type of challenge

That's not meme, that's reality. The truth is that the US economy hasn't grown in the truest sense for close to five decades already.

No, it is a meme. USD's status as a world reserve currency, it's dominance in the global financial system, and its existing military might are a non-issue.

So no, it is a meme.

What grew was nominal GDP on paper - some fictional accounting bullshit, + the net worths of the wealthy. Because this is correlated.

When you charge people more, your nominal GDP grows, and share prices grow, the same as inflation (excessive currency printing + price gouging), which leads to rapid asset prices increase, this also increases the net worths of the wealthy, in addition to the nominal GDP (finance services, wealthy elites selling shares between each other over and over).

In the most fundamental sense, the US economy has been declining for decades already. It is for this reason that they overly focused on nominal GDP reporting, which favors those things I mentioned above, and why they also needed to constantly change loosen inflation formula.

Uh huh. Must be why consumer spending and wages are up

But this is the issue with you guys. You understand that US reporting on China's economy is bad, and does not adequately reflect its strength, yet are unable to apply the same critical thinking to the US Economy.

 

[Serb]

No, it is a meme. USD's status as a world reserve currency,

Irrelevant anymore with gold returning as the reserve asset & breaking free of the artificial shackles they had over it up until now in price.

it's dominance in the global financial system,

That sure didn't prevent Russia and China from 100% and 50% de-dollarization of their entire foreign trade activities in just 2 years.

and its existing military might are a non-issue.

They have no technological edge in any area of the military now. And without that, they are nothing, since their industrial might is meager.

Uh huh. Must be why consumer spending and wages are up

Real wages are not up, if we count on the original inflation formula, for decades already. Median real wages - probably even more so.

By the current, multiple times heavily adjusted CPI, they have been at most stagnating, but if we look at it originally, they've been falling.

Consumer spending on the other hand can be 100% sustained on debt, and they can in many cases signal weakness and not strength.

 

[abenomics12345]

Also just to correct you on your last point, no one has the full stack of technology, well no one expects China of the future perhaps.

See below - whether they have it themselves or not, they can bully to have it:

That's fine, as long as the US can bully Taiwan/Netherlands to do what it wants them to do (Build at 2-3x the cost in Arizona in the former's case, and not sell to China in the latter's case).

Or, in the case of biotech - fuck with Wuxi Biologics such that customers are reticent from using their services.

Certainly not the US. I mean are you sure not informed on how many high-tech areas China now has an edge over not only them but full West?

I've met with hundreds of Chinese leading companies in each of these fields so when I tell you I know, I really know.

Just because they can survive doing it, doesn't mean that those two things are true.

As much as we shit on Gordon Chang for calling China's collapse, it is equally as dumb to call for the collapse of the US for 10 years in a row and have it continue to plod along.