Chinese Economics Thread

abenomics12345

Junior Member
Registered Member
Appreciate or depraciate? I think here everyone would want the rmb to appreciate cause it's really low now if it could be back to 6.7 for 1 USD that would be nice

I meant what I wrote - appreciate. All you need to look is the response of USDCNH exchange rate today and on Sept 26 for a sense of how the currency works now. This is one underappreciated insight given the way the economy is structured today, and where the economy is going (domestic circulation as primary driver, with direct financing in domestic capital markets driving that forward). As @Bellum_Romanum put it, exporting products to make USD is not the priority as it was when China was capital poor - what is needed today is Chinese companies, who are globally competitive, making investments/profits overseas and repatriating that domestically as dividends for domestic equity capital markets to generate real returns.

Inherent in this setup (domestic circulation + domestic capital market appreciation) is that reflation of the economy (as opposed to deflation in the economy) will be the signal for capital to enter China. As I've argued countless times here, reflation of the economy = fiscal stimulus coordinated with monetary stimulus. Ergo, looser fiscal/monetary policy = stronger CNY.
 
Last edited:

bd popeye

The Last Jedi
VIP Professional
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Trucks and engineering vehicles wait to be loaded at Yantai Port in east China's Shandong Province, Dec. 10, 2024. China's total goods imports and exports expanded 4.9 percent year on year in yuan terms in the first 11 months of the year, official data showed Tuesday.

The goods trade volume expanded to 39.79 trillion yuan, or 5.6 trillion in U.S. dollar terms, in the January-November period, according to the General Administration of Customs (GAC).

The country's exports rose 6.7 percent year on year during the period to 23.04 trillion yuan, while imports climbed 2.4 percent to 16.75 trillion yuan, the GAC data showed. (Photo by Tang Ke/Xinhua)

In November alone, goods imports and exports saw a year-on-year increase of 1.2 percent to total 3.75 trillion yuan -- maintaining growth for an eighth consecutive month.

Specifically, exports of mechanical and electrical products accounted for nearly 60 percent of the total during the January-November period, with exports of containers, ships and motorcycles increasing by 108.7 percent, 65.3 percent and 24.8 percent, respectively, the data showed.

During the first 11 months, agricultural products reached a broad overseas market, as exports of dried and fresh fruits and nuts, vegetables and edible fungi, and alcohol and beverages increased by 22.2 percent, 11.4 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively.

Among various market entities, private enterprises in this period saw their foreign trade increase by 8.7 percent year on year -- remaining the leading force in terms of China's foreign trade. Meanwhile, imports and exports of foreign-invested firms increased by 1.1 percent.

Market diversification also sustained momentum. In the first 11 months of 2024, China's trade with traditional partners such as the European Union, the United States and the Republic of Korea achieved growth of 1.3 percent, 4.2 percent and 6.3 percent, respectively.

China's trade with countries participating in Belt and Road cooperation during this period saw a year-on-year increase of 6 percent, while that with ASEAN countries rose by 8.6 percent.

In this period, China's foreign trade with Latin America and Africa increased by 7.9 percent and 4.8 percent, respectively.

The State Council recently issued a package of policy measures aimed at promoting the stable growth of foreign trade, while the Ministry of Commerce, the GAC and other departments also launched specific measures to accelerate the integrated development of domestic and foreign trade, further optimize the business environment at ports, and promote the convenience of customs clearance for enterprises, said Lyu Daliang, director of the GAC's Department of Statistics and Analysis.

"With the concerted efforts of both stock and incremental policies in the field, China is expected to end the year with a smooth performance in foreign trade and achieve the goal of stable quality and quantity," Lyu noted.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Containers are unloaded at Qingdao Port, east China's Shandong Province, Dec. 10, 2024. (Photo by Yu Fangping/Xinhua)

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


This aerial drone photo taken on Dec. 10, 2024 shows vehicles to be loaded for export at Lianyungang Port, east China's Jiangsu Province. (Photo by Wang Chun/Xinhua)

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Photos taken on Dec. 10, 2024 shows a view of the international container terminal at Yantai Port in east China's Shandong Province. (Photos by Tang Ke/Xinhua)

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


This aerial drone photo taken on Dec. 10, 2024 shows a cargo ship loaded with containers leaving Lianyungang Port, east China's Jiangsu Province. (Photo by Wang Chun/Xinhua)

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


This aerial drone photo taken on Dec. 10, 2024 shows a container terminal of Lianyungang Port, east China's Jiangsu Province. (Photo by Wang Chun/Xinhua)
 

Jiang ZeminFanboy

Senior Member
Registered Member
I meant what I wrote - appreciate. All you need to look is the response of USDCNH exchange rate today and on Sept 26 for a sense of how the currency works now. This is one underappreciated insight given the way the economy is structured today, and where the economy is going (domestic circulation as primary driver, with direct financing in domestic capital markets driving that forward). As @Bellum_Romanum put it, exporting products to make USD is not the priority as it was when China was capital poor - what is needed today is Chinese companies, who are globally competitive, making investments/profits overseas and repatriating that domestically as dividends for domestic equity capital markets to generate real returns.

Inherent in this setup (domestic circulation + domestic capital market appreciation) is that reflation of the economy (as opposed to deflation in the economy) will be the signal for capital to enter China. As I've argued countless times here, reflation of the economy = fiscal stimulus coordinated with monetary stimulus. Ergo, looser fiscal/monetary policy = stronger CNY.

No good, hope that's just fake rumour, Yuan is already very weak
 

mossen

Junior Member
Registered Member
No good, hope that's just fake rumour, Yuan is already very weak
Weakening the yuan is the most logical move against tariffs. Also, the yuan isn't very weak. China has a big trade surplus but a lot of capital is leaving the country. Often corrupt rich people stashing their wealth in offshore tax havens etc. That puts pressure due to demand for FX.

A big difference between now and Trump's first term is that China can play hardball far easier.
 

abenomics12345

Junior Member
Registered Member

No good, hope that's just fake rumour, Yuan is already very weak

Weakening the yuan is the most logical move against tariffs. Also, the yuan isn't very weak. China has a big trade surplus but a lot of capital is leaving the country. Often corrupt rich people stashing their wealth in offshore tax havens etc. That puts pressure due to demand for FX.

A big difference between now and Trump's first term is that China can play hardball far easier.

You see this is the traditional heuristic that gets people into trouble - mistaking historical relationships that used to make sense/work vs. what may work in the future.

Weakening the RMB works to the extent there is a trade/finance channel - whereas the new trade war that Trump is waging (against the entire world, not just China - so Yangcheng Lake Hairy Crab doesn't work anymore) prevents trade/finance channel from operating. Additionally there's the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.

As you can already see, the country is already taking away the export subsidies (functionally they worked to reduce export prices - which is not dissimilar to a weaker RMB). What will really crush the USD is when China starts exporting inflation as opposed to deflation.
 
Top