Chinese Economics Thread

[Blitzo]

Look, I get the jingoism. I really does. Good for you. But there's no such a thing as the thousand year reich. It's useless to predict the future. But often the best indication of future behaviour is past behaviour.

You would be the first person to denounce American exceptionalism. I hope you have enough insight to recognise your own Chinese exceptionalism when others point it out.

And you have to understand that insinuating China's growth will lead to a rapid decline is flame bait.

Sure, no government lasts forever. They all have to adapt, and if they can't adapt fast enough they'll get replaced with a successor. But you are seeking to project a timeline for china, and trying to shoehorn past trends into the present and future as if that provides some kind of legitimacy to your position (without considering the vast array of differences between ancient china and modern china). That is confusing at best and offensive at worst.

 

[SamuraiBlue]

Since when did Mongolian culture take over China?

When you people accepted in wearing pants instead of traditional wrap around clothes and hair style like soncoho. Culinary culture had also changed assimilating various Mongol dishes as well.

By the way your original quote was "continuing civilization" in which lineage had been broken countless times.

 

[AssassinsMace]

Look, I get the jingoism. I really does. Good for you. But there's no such a thing as the thousand year reich. It's useless to predict the future. But often the best indication of future behaviour is past behaviour.

You would be the first person to denounce American exceptionalism. I hope you have enough insight to recognise your own Chinese exceptionalism when others point it out.

Again I was using your own logic. If you think I was fallacious, then you're had to have been. Where did I say the Chinese were exceptional? I don't believe anyone is exceptional. Were you bothered by my comment of China being the longest continuing civilization on Earth? You must've thought that was arrogance. No, why do you think I said it? There has to be some belief in Chinese inferiority to say that China would collapse so easily while others would not?

I can see my comment about China being the longest continuing civilization on Earth bothered some. That's nothing to be bothered about because it's true. In the Sino-Russian thread the myth of Chinese wanting to take over the Russian Far East which is a common Yellow Peril theme was brought up. You know what the equivalent charge from the Chinese side that would be bothersome? The West is plotting to take-over the world again and enslave humanity. My comment is petty to be bothered about because it's just a fact of history that China is the longest continuing civilization on Earth.

 

[AssassinsMace]

When you people accepted in wearing pants instead of traditional wrap around clothes and hair style like soncoho. Culinary culture had also changed assimilating various Mongol dishes as well.

By the way your original quote was "continuing civilization" in which lineage had been broken countless times.

So the world has Mongolians to thank for wearing pants? So it's Mongolian thinking that the Chinese can blame for all the bad behavior now?

Sorry to tell you Chinese culture was not taken over by Mongolians. It still exists. You know why? Mongolians wanted to take Chinese culture for themselves. That's why they did it. They didn't force Chinese to drop their culture and assimilate Mongolian culture. If the Chinese adopted things from other cultures, that's not a breakage in lineage. That's not uncommon. So are the Mongolians claiming the culture China has now is purely Mongolian? If that's breaking lineage then what's the mongrelized culture of Japan that's Korean and Chinese and now by your logic American?

 

[Doombreed]

And you have to understand that insinuating China's growth will lead to a rapid decline is flame bait.

Sure, no government lasts forever. They all have to adapt, and if they can't adapt fast enough they'll get replaced with a successor. But you are seeking to project a timeline for china, and trying to shoehorn past trends into the present and future as if that provides some kind of legitimacy to your position (without considering the vast array of differences between ancient china and modern china). That is confusing at best and offensive at worst.

I think you're being a bit too precious. It was a legitimate question. China's growth will not lead to a rapid decline, classic straw man. But you must be able to see that growth follows a very familiar pattern, but faster. And surely you must be able to see that the growth of corruption, as per script, is happening too, but faster. So why is it "offensive" to ask whether stage three will come about faster too?

How about this. Let me rephrase, so as to soothe your ego. The Chinese people, industrious and hardworking, through turmoil and calamity have achieved tremendous growth that is rightfully envied by the rest of the world. The Chinese people are at the beginning of their ascendency.
However, the same social pressure that was the cause of their historical dynastic cycles can be observed acting once again on the Chinese nation. Would these similar pressures create similar reactions like the many times before in Chinese history? Or would this time be different? No one can tell for sure. But it is a question worthy to be asked. Especially for the Chinese people themselves. Lest they blindly go down the same road that they have treaded down before, so many times.

P.S. Why are you so defensive? Not everyone that asks a question has a hidden agenda.

 

[Doombreed]

Where did I say the Chinese were exceptional?

You didn't say the Chinese were exceptional. You implied that China this time will be exceptional. As in, given the same social and economic pressures, this time will be different.

Were you bothered by my comment of China being the longest continuing civilization on Earth?

Not bothered at all. Indeed, I applaud the achievement. Some may argue that the Anglo-saxon culture can be said to be a continuation of Greco-Roman civilisation too. But I digress.

I can see my comment about China being the longest continuing civilization on Earth bothered some. That's nothing to be bothered about because it's true...... it's just a fact of history that China is the longest continuing civilization on Earth.

Of cause. Of cause. Indisputable. But you must also admitt that during that continous civilisation there's definatly periods where the economic outlook and general well being of that civilisation is not at it's zenith. And every times that it happened, very similar social, economical, and environmental factors were at play.

 

[Blitzo]

When you people accepted in wearing pants instead of traditional wrap around clothes and hair style like soncoho. Culinary culture had also changed assimilating various Mongol dishes as well.

By the way your original quote was "continuing civilization" in which lineage had been broken countless times.

So changing garments and culinary practise is thus indicative of one culture "taking over" another? That makes it sound like one culture is absorbing and erasing the other.
By your example, then you can say no civilisation on earth is not absorbed by western civilisation due to the penetrance of western clothing, food, media and brands.

Regarding your Mongolia example, do you seriously think your examples are sufficient evidence to say that it was the invading Mongolians whose culture absorbed the chinese, rather than vice versa? Social-political framework, language, and "civilisation" ambition. Do you think the Mongolians absorbed the chinese culture in that regard?

---

As for continuity of civilisation, the onus is on you to provide what you perceive as incidences of it being broken.

Personally, i think that apart from measuring civilisation on the basis of physical structures locations and use of a said structures and locations, it is the idea of the civilisation and its physical boundaries that is important. The Roman Empire (and more importantly , its boundaries) is dead because no one believes in it. Same for the mongol empire. Can you provide an example for where no one chinese credibly didn't believe in the idea of china (note not the "chinese empire," but rather simply china, the self titled "Middle Kingdom" ) and its boundaries? Indeed, that was the entire basis of the KMT and CCP, both believed themselves to be the true inheritors of the chinese civilisation, that even after the century of foreign domination, the idea of china had not yet died.

In China's history there have been countless incidences of civil war, foreign invasion (and in more distant times, that was followed up with chinese cultural assimilation of the invader), and more recently, with the century of western and Japanese invasion. But in that time, has the idea of china ever been broken?

Edit: there are also specific philosophies, texts, and practises that also add up to the definition of a civilisation, of course. But I'd argue that due to today's more rapid exchange of ideas and information, the most concrete and undisputable signifiers of a civilisation is both the idea of it (which I understand can be vague and is self reported), and the (more objectively measured) claim of borders and land.

 

[Blitzo]

I think you're being a bit too precious. It was a legitimate question. China's growth will not lead to a rapid decline, classic straw man. But you must be able to see that growth follows a very familiar pattern, but faster. And surely you must be able to see that the growth of corruption, as per script, is happening too, but faster. So why is it "offensive" to ask whether stage three will come about faster too?

How about this. Let me rephrase, so as to soothe your ego. The Chinese people, industrious and hardworking, through turmoil and calamity have achieved tremendous growth that is rightfully envied by the rest of the world. The Chinese people are at the beginning of their ascendency.
However, the same social pressure that was the cause of their historical dynastic cycles can be observed acting once again on the Chinese nation. Would these similar pressures create similar reactions like the many times before in Chinese history? Or would this time be different? No one can tell for sure. But it is a question worthy to be asked. Especially for the Chinese people themselves. Lest they blindly go down the same road that they have treaded down before, so many times.

P.S. Why are you so defensive? Not everyone that asks a question has a hidden agenda.

I'm not defensive, but posting on a forum like this with something that is inflammatory? Yes, I think you are being out of line. The forum has rules. Read them. The entire premise of your suggestion relies on a few political assumptions that are controversial. I've been here long enough to see the sign of a thread that will end up in a flame war.

If this were another forum I might be more inclined to discuss this. But here? No.

If anything, I agree that no government lasts forever and there will be cycles of change. Nor do I believe china is either at the beginning nor the end of its "ascendency". It is too early to tell.

I do think it is to little early to speculate at the moment as to whether pressures that china current faces will be enough of a tinderbox to spark a "dynastic decline". There is also the problem of asking just what exactly a modern dynastic decline looks like. Many countries have endured tectonic political revolutions and subsequent decline of power, would that be enough to qualify in China's case? What would the minimum be?
More importantly, is the government adaptable enough to simply change with the times? The CCP have proven remarkably open minded to change over the last thirty years. Considering where they were and where they are, is it logical to count against them? Or are we simply going to go with the stereotype that all non democratic nations are eventually doomed to failure?

 

[AssassinsMace]

You didn't say the Chinese were exceptional. You implied that China this time will be exceptional. As in, given the same social and economic pressures, this time will be different.



Not bothered at all. Indeed, I applaud the achievement. Some may argue that the Anglo-saxon culture can be said to be a continuation of Greco-Roman civilisation too. But I digress.



Of cause. Of cause. Indisputable. But you must also admitt that during that continous civilisation there's definatly periods where the economic outlook and general well being of that civilisation is not at it's zenith. And every times that it happened, very similar social, economical, and environmental factors were at play.

Now you're just making stuff up. I never said or implied that. Again I was using your own logic because I knew that would counter your own argument. So if you think I implied China was exceptional from that, it's in fact you were thinking the US was exceptional. The exceptional argument was all you. I didn't bring that up. Implied means your interpretation not mine. So you're arguing just because I questioned your logic that China will fall as fast as it rose, that's somehow saying China is exceptional? Did I say it was illogical just for China? No. When I use "illogical," it means not in line with common sense. Common means in general not just China.

Now you give a more elaborate response to the rise and fall of civilizations. But you know that has nothing to do with your primary argument that China will fall as fast as what China has been able to accomplish faster than the West. I don't see you explaining that connection. We already know what causes civilizations to fall. I want to know how you think China won't last long because it developed in areas faster than the West because that was you're main argument. Everything else you brought up was a digression away from that argument. The problem is with your main argument. That's what being talked about.

 

[delft]

China wants 70,000 megawatts of solar by 2017, triple what they currently have


Some pretty ambitious targets
China's air is just too polluted. As you can see on the map below, pollution from coal power plants (among other things) are fouling up the whole coast, which is where most people live. Things are so bad that a jar of fresh mountain air from France was actually sold at auction in Beijing and China's premier has declared a "war on pollution".

Tripling solar capacity in a few years
At the end of 2013, China had almost 20 gigawatts (GW) solar capacity. The government's new goal for 2017 is to reach 70 GW of solar power, in addition to 150 GW of wind power, 11 GW of biomass, and 330 GW of hydropower. This should help it reach the target of 13% of power from sources other than fossil fuels, the main cause of air pollution in the country, on top of greenhouse gases.

Unfortunately, China also keeps approving the construction of more coal plants. To truly make progress fast enough, it should look for clean alternative to these. I understand that as hundred of millions of people are getting out of poverty, there's a huge increase in demand for electricity, but coal plants stick around for very long and are hard to shut down once built, so China shouldn't tie its own hands...

I understand that new coal fired plant is built to much higher standard and produce much less pollution. Old plant is not only dirty but also less efficient so is likely to be replaced by the new plants.