Chinese Economics Thread

TK3600

Major
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According to sources on telegram:
“— / NEW: China will sanction nine U.S. defence firms over arms sales to Taiwan, freezing their properties within the country. The companies will also be banned from transactions with domestic organizations and individuals.”
Do they even have asset in China.
 

Index

Junior Member
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Do they even have asset in China.
It's not about what they themselves have but about scaring off other companies from doing business with them. Any company who wants to have ties with wherever China has interests has to choose between that and the toxified US company.

It'll render them only able to stay afloat from military subsidies = exorbitant cost and subpar quality. Like that company that makes switchblade drones.
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
It's not about what they themselves have but about scaring off other companies from doing business with them. Any company who wants to have ties with wherever China has interests has to choose between that and the toxified US company.

It'll render them only able to stay afloat from military subsidies = exorbitant cost and subpar quality. Like that company that makes switchblade drones.
So sanction applies to any company trading with them. If US company B trade with banned A, company B lose Chinese asset, even if company B was not on sanction list.
 

SanWenYu

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So sanction applies to any company trading with them. If US company B trade with banned A, company B lose Chinese asset, even if company B was not on sanction list.
That would decouple the two economies effectively. A nuclear bomb that China does not yet need to use.
 

tphuang

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That would decouple the two economies effectively. A nuclear bomb that China does not yet need to use.
China is run by people afraid of actually putting it in policies that would make things even slightly painful for some domestic companies. Even now, they still export Gallium. Why would anyone take China seriously?
 

Index

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So sanction applies to any company trading with them. If US company B trade with banned A, company B lose Chinese asset, even if company B was not on sanction list.
Just to some reasonable selective extent, like if a sanctioned company employee bought a soft drink from Walmart it doesn't mean Walmart would be nuked with sanctions. But if it's weak companies and especially ones selling/buying key equipment to them.

The goal isn't to dick measure but to inflict real degradement on US military manufecturing capability.

Without civilian purchase deals and/or subcontractors to manufacture, these companies will be doomed, they can either shut the doors or become "national security" companies i.e. zombify

Bans issued from China are worded as a moratium on worldwide activity, even in the US, although US itself will violate it for obvious reasons.

Taiwan related sanctions have worked against small and medium arms manufacturing companies, to the point where US really struggles to make small ticket items (lancet style missiles, FPV, guidance kits etc.). Against giants like Boeing, Taiwan sanctions have not been as effective, but they've also slowly helped hollow out their innovation and money efficiency. The final verdict isn't in yet, but so far, the careful application of sanctions seems to work.
 
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SanWenYu

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China is run by people afraid of actually putting it in policies that would make things even slightly painful for some domestic companies. Even now, they still export Gallium. Why would anyone take China seriously?
China is not the only producer of Gallium etc. The technologies required to build new refineries are not secret either. Western competitions might be less efficient but they have retained the ability.

Total ban on exporting critical semiconductor materials will make the western semiconductor companies suffer but not enough to kill them off. At the same time, China will lose the market to other suppliers, including those western ones.

This is the mistake the west has been making in semiconductor tools. Why would China need to repeat?
 

tphuang

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China is not the only producer of Gallium etc. The technologies required to build new refineries are not secret either. Western competitions might be less efficient but they have retained the ability.

Total ban on exporting critical semiconductor materials will make the western semiconductor companies suffer but not enough to kill them off. At the same time, China will lose the market to other suppliers, including those western ones.

This is the mistake the west has been making in semiconductor tools. Why would China need to repeat?
Actually, China pretty much is the only producer of Ga these days. There is only about 2% outside of China and Russia.

A total ban on its export would significantly weaken several Western RF companies that depend on it, all of whom are critical to America's national defense. It would also put Taiwanese GaA fabs out of business. This would allow Chinese GaA producers and RF Power amplifier producers and 5G module companies to win.

Whoever wins in RF wins the future battleship.

The short sighted approach is actually being concerned about Ga producers in China, which is a much smaller industry.
 
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