Chinese Economics Thread

[manqiangrexue]

Old Chinese dont spend, boomers do. Age 30-60 are wasteful bunch.

Yeah, accurate. My parents and in laws are at that age where doing anything on a budget is offensive because that implies that you're not living as best you can.

My mom: Need a car? I'll buy it for you! Get the 2024 Sienna hybrid Platinum trim for $60K! What, you bought the same model 10 years old with 70K miles on it for $19K??? What's wrong with you? Used cars are coffins on wheels; anything could be wrong with them! Why are you acting poor?

My grandma: I've got nothing to do all day so I'll pass on the supermarket on our block and walk a mile to the grocery store in the ghetto because the gallon milk there is 20 cents cheaper.

 

[TK3600]

If I am a customer, why should buy anything unless it is broken to the point of no repair because thing will be cheaper tomorrow. I give no shit if producers run on razor thin margin. As long as they barely make end meet, I'm happy. I only want cheap products. I want to save as much as money as possible. To hell with investment because nothing works now. Real estate is pooped. Stock market is a dissaster.

Wtf is this investor mentality. Car and phone go down price constantly, and people buy it for use.

House is the only one that people wait, because it has investment element even if for self use.

 

[manqiangrexue]

If I am a customer, why should buy anything unless it is broken to the point of no repair because thing will be cheaper tomorrow. I give no shit if producers run on razor thin margin. As long as they barely make end meet, I'm happy. I only want cheap products. I want to save as much as money as possible. To hell with investment because nothing works now. Real estate is pooped. Stock market is a dissaster.

Actually the best investors analyze the dip to buy in. Investing when everything is going up and the market's hot is low risk low reward. Buying when everyone else is hoarding money is how to come out ahead big time. People who don't have experience are usually too scared to try. People with the experience get better and better the more they do it, which is why crises tend to make the rich richer and the poor poorer.

 

[broadsword]

Warren Buffett once said it's wise for investors “to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”

Ok, he was definitely not the first one to say that.

 

[Quan8410]

Actually the best investors analyze the dip to buy in. Investing when everything is going up and the market's hot is low risk low reward. Buying when everyone else is hoarding money is how to come out ahead big time. People who don't have experience are usually too scared to try. People with the experience get better and better the more they do it, which is why crises tend to make the rich richer and the poor poorer.

Buying the dip only works if you have enough cash to sustain the loss. China stock market lose half of its value from 2007. That's why people buy gold and real estate to begin with. Now with real estate basically freezed, people will only buy gold.

 

[broadsword]

Buying the dip only works if you have enough cash to sustain the loss. China stock market lose half of its value from 2007. That's why people buy gold and real estate to begin with. Now with real estate basically freezed, people will only buy gold.

That's where charting can help. @4Runner started a thread Financial Markets Around World.

The Indian investment analysts at the Singapore Sovereign Fund seemingly make their decisions based on fundamentals without regard for the price level. It bought high and cut their losses on some bad investments. It might as well stick to IPOs and get better ROI. It pains me that they could entrust the citizens' money in the hands of a few dubious Indians. We are talking about billions of losses in a single investment.

A chart turns bullish not necessarily because it foretells a change in policy from the government or company. It can be because the stock market has become oversold or the negative economic conditions have run their course resulting in a rebound in the economy.

 

[gelgoog]

That chart is for consumers, not businessness. The wording is a bit weird, so I assume investing just means spending in big-ticket items. Part of this is clearly the housing sector but you can see the slow decline even in 2018-19.

Chinese consumers are simply very unwilling to spend discrectionary income and it doesn't seem to be changing.

Boohoohoo. People are keeping their savings in the bank. And the government uses those savings to finance construction of advanced industry like semiconductors and transport aircraft.

 

[proelite]

Boohoohoo. People are keeping their savings in the bank. And the government uses those savings to finance construction of advanced industry like semiconductors and transport aircraft.

And on future consumers in Africa.

 

[mossen]

the government uses those savings to finance construction of advanced industry like semiconductors and transport aircraft.

The govt never had any problems financing investments before. So that argument isn't really relevant.

 

[curiouscat]

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I think American companies will most likely continue to shift their business plans away from China towards south east Asia and India. I’m starting to hear more rumbles from my own company about the future of our offices in China too.