Chinese Economics Thread
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Equation
Lieutenant General
Too many people wanting to go to the big popular cities to live and work meanwhile the 2nd and 3rd tier cities are suited for their needs.
For migrant workers, a lot of them doesn't know too much about 2nd and 3rd tier cities. They go to big popular cities first to look for job, since there are plenty, and they know a bit on what income they may get. They probably get a most of the information on wage and living standard from media and word of mouth, and with this information, it is easier to calculate if they can sustain themselves. On the other hand, they don't have much information on 2nd and 3rd tier cities. The migrant workers don't know about the rent, wage, cost of living and opportunities in such cities, so they tend to avoid it. Once they discover this, they will tend to move there. Younger generation would probably get this info slightly more easily, due to the internet. Older generation may look at job boards or from word of mouth to obtain information and wouldn't have discover this until 2~3 years after they moved
When I went back to my dad's hometown, and then watching the news on FOXCONN, it always puzzled me why the migrant worker move to our hometown to work, until my mom told me that they may not even heard of this place. Back in 2007 in my hometown, they could have made 2000~3000 RMB (slightly higher now), cheapest room rent was $100 (really shabby, but if you are saving up, you get what you pay) and the food was cheap. If the employer don't pay for life and work insurance, they probably don't want to work for you. Foxconn only paid around $1000
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Too many fake plates?
Employ traffic plate wardens with real time feed back on the plates legitimacy If the plates fake, have the car towed away and crushed within the week.
China Trade Growth Defies Signs of Slowdown
China’s export and import growth unexpectedly accelerated in January, defying signs the world’s second-largest economy will slow while fueling speculation that fake shipments are resurfacing.
Overseas shipments rose 10.6 percent from a year earlier, the General Administration of Customs said today in Beijing, a pace that may be distorted by false invoices and holidays and compares with the median projection of economists for a 0.1 percent gain. Imports (CNFRIMPY) advanced 10 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $31.9 billion, the widest for January since 2009.
The trade report added to skepticism over the quality of China’s economic data after a crackdown by authorities last year on the use of inflated export invoices to disguise capital inflows. Asian stocks extended gains and the Australian dollar jumped as the report provided some evidence of support for an economy that’s projected by analysts to grow at its slowest pace in 24 years in 2014.
“This should make markets more relaxed about both global demand and demand in China’s own economy,” Louis Kuijs, chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Hong Kong, said in a note today. “However, we are also left with a nagging feeling that perhaps issues such as over-invoicing have risen sharply in intensity early this year.”
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks advanced 1 percent as of 2:48 p.m. in Tokyo. The Australian dollar rose 0.2 percent to 90.56 U.S. cents. China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.1 percent.
Rising Yuan
China’s exporters have been challenged by a yuan that’s appreciated about 2.8 percent against the U.S. dollar in the last 12 months, the most among 24 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The yuan was little changed today at 6.0616 per dollar.
The comparison with year-earlier figures is distorted because of false invoices to disguise capital flows in 2013 and the different timing of the weeklong Lunar New Year holiday. A widening discrepancy between Hong Kong and Chinese data for bilateral trade in December spurred speculation that China’s numbers are again exaggerated because of fake exports.
This year’s new year holiday began Jan. 31, while last year’s started on Feb. 9. Today’s data may reflect shipment arrangements that were advanced by exporters ahead of the festival and February’s figures “may slow down a bit,” said Liu Xuezhi, an analyst at Bank of Communications Co. in Shanghai.
Analysts’ Estimates
Economists’ estimates for exports ranged from a decline of 8 percent to a 5.9 percent gain, following December’s 4.3 percent advance. Imports were projected to rise 4 percent from a year earlier, after December’s 8.3 percent increase, and the trade surplus was forecast at $23.45 billion, based on median projections in Bloomberg surveys.
Two gauges of Chinese manufacturing from surveys of companies declined in January to six-month lows, previously reported figures showed. A measure of new export orders in the official Purchasing Managers’ Index (SHCOMP) fell to 49.3, indicating a contraction for the second straight month.
China’s exports to Hong Kong in December exceeded the city’s reported imports from the mainland by about 70 percent, the biggest difference since April. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange said in December that it would boost scrutiny of trade financing and that banks should prevent companies from getting financing based on fabricated trade.
Shipments from China to Hong Kong fell 18.3 percent in January from a year earlier to $26.3 billion, contrasting with a 10.7 gain in exports to the U.S. and an 18.8 percent jump in goods bound for the European Union, according to today’s customs figures. Hong Kong will report January trade data on Feb. 25.
‘Substantial Support’
Demand from advanced economies will give “substantial support” for China’s growth this year, which along with resilient consumption will keep the government “in a good position to avoid a shadow banking-induced crisis and sharp decline in investment,” Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong, said in a note today.
Along with Kuijs at RBS, economists at Nomura Holdings Inc. and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. questioned the extent to which the January data indicate strength in the economy.
“It is important to note that China’s regional trading partners such as Taiwan and South Korea registered very weak January exports,” ANZ analysts including Liu Li-Gang in Hong Kong wrote in a note. Import gains indicated a “front-loading effect before the Chinese New Year.”
Rio Tinto Group, the world’s second-largest mining company, said last month that iron ore production rose 7 percent to 55.5 million tons last quarter and it’s seeking to expand its iron ore output capacity from Australia to meet Chinese demand. China’s imports from Australia surged 41.5 percent in January to $10.45 billion, today’s data showed.
To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Rachel Butt in Hong Kong at [email protected]; Xin Zhou in Beijing at [email protected]
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Panckhurst at [email protected]; Hwee Ann Tan at [email protected]
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China’s export and import growth unexpectedly accelerated in January, defying signs the world’s second-largest economy will slow while fueling speculation that fake shipments are resurfacing.
Overseas shipments rose 10.6 percent from a year earlier, the General Administration of Customs said today in Beijing, a pace that may be distorted by false invoices and holidays and compares with the median projection of economists for a 0.1 percent gain. Imports (CNFRIMPY) advanced 10 percent, leaving a trade surplus of $31.9 billion, the widest for January since 2009.
The trade report added to skepticism over the quality of China’s economic data after a crackdown by authorities last year on the use of inflated export invoices to disguise capital inflows. Asian stocks extended gains and the Australian dollar jumped as the report provided some evidence of support for an economy that’s projected by analysts to grow at its slowest pace in 24 years in 2014.
“This should make markets more relaxed about both global demand and demand in China’s own economy,” Louis Kuijs, chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Hong Kong, said in a note today. “However, we are also left with a nagging feeling that perhaps issues such as over-invoicing have risen sharply in intensity early this year.”
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks advanced 1 percent as of 2:48 p.m. in Tokyo. The Australian dollar rose 0.2 percent to 90.56 U.S. cents. China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.1 percent.
Rising Yuan
China’s exporters have been challenged by a yuan that’s appreciated about 2.8 percent against the U.S. dollar in the last 12 months, the most among 24 emerging-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The yuan was little changed today at 6.0616 per dollar.
The comparison with year-earlier figures is distorted because of false invoices to disguise capital flows in 2013 and the different timing of the weeklong Lunar New Year holiday. A widening discrepancy between Hong Kong and Chinese data for bilateral trade in December spurred speculation that China’s numbers are again exaggerated because of fake exports.
This year’s new year holiday began Jan. 31, while last year’s started on Feb. 9. Today’s data may reflect shipment arrangements that were advanced by exporters ahead of the festival and February’s figures “may slow down a bit,” said Liu Xuezhi, an analyst at Bank of Communications Co. in Shanghai.
Analysts’ Estimates
Economists’ estimates for exports ranged from a decline of 8 percent to a 5.9 percent gain, following December’s 4.3 percent advance. Imports were projected to rise 4 percent from a year earlier, after December’s 8.3 percent increase, and the trade surplus was forecast at $23.45 billion, based on median projections in Bloomberg surveys.
Two gauges of Chinese manufacturing from surveys of companies declined in January to six-month lows, previously reported figures showed. A measure of new export orders in the official Purchasing Managers’ Index (SHCOMP) fell to 49.3, indicating a contraction for the second straight month.
China’s exports to Hong Kong in December exceeded the city’s reported imports from the mainland by about 70 percent, the biggest difference since April. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange said in December that it would boost scrutiny of trade financing and that banks should prevent companies from getting financing based on fabricated trade.
Shipments from China to Hong Kong fell 18.3 percent in January from a year earlier to $26.3 billion, contrasting with a 10.7 gain in exports to the U.S. and an 18.8 percent jump in goods bound for the European Union, according to today’s customs figures. Hong Kong will report January trade data on Feb. 25.
‘Substantial Support’
Demand from advanced economies will give “substantial support” for China’s growth this year, which along with resilient consumption will keep the government “in a good position to avoid a shadow banking-induced crisis and sharp decline in investment,” Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong, said in a note today.
Along with Kuijs at RBS, economists at Nomura Holdings Inc. and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. questioned the extent to which the January data indicate strength in the economy.
“It is important to note that China’s regional trading partners such as Taiwan and South Korea registered very weak January exports,” ANZ analysts including Liu Li-Gang in Hong Kong wrote in a note. Import gains indicated a “front-loading effect before the Chinese New Year.”
Rio Tinto Group, the world’s second-largest mining company, said last month that iron ore production rose 7 percent to 55.5 million tons last quarter and it’s seeking to expand its iron ore output capacity from Australia to meet Chinese demand. China’s imports from Australia surged 41.5 percent in January to $10.45 billion, today’s data showed.
To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Rachel Butt in Hong Kong at [email protected]; Xin Zhou in Beijing at [email protected]
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Panckhurst at [email protected]; Hwee Ann Tan at [email protected]
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The median estimative for a 0,1% anual growth for exports and instead they get a 10,6% growth ???
Equation
Lieutenant General
broadsword
Brigadier
I think it meant a 1% growth from the previous year to make it a total of 10.6%.
It is 0.1%, according to the report, of the median of forecast of various sources, for the month of January only. That means, 0.1% is the average of all the forecast collated and it applied to just that particular month.
Martian
Senior Member
My comment on Salon.
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World's ten largest energy consumers for 2012
1. China 2,735 (MTOE or Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent)
2. U.S. 2,209
3. Russia 694
4. India 564
5. Japan 478
6. Canada 329
7. Germany 312
8. Brazil 275
9. South Korea 271
10. France 245
Source (p. 42 in BP PDF report which includes two cover pages):
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World's ten largest energy consumers for 2012
1. China 2,735 (MTOE or Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent)
2. U.S. 2,209
3. Russia 694
4. India 564
5. Japan 478
6. Canada 329
7. Germany 312
8. Brazil 275
9. South Korea 271
10. France 245
Source (p. 42 in BP PDF report which includes two cover pages):
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