Chinese Economics Thread

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China extends blessing to informal banking network
By Zhou Xin Reuters
Published: November 24, 2008


BEIJING: China is preparing to bring the country's extensive underground banking system in from the cold as part of attempts to bolster lending to small businesses hit hard by the credit crunch and economic downturn.

Informal lending networks, though technically illegal, have been a lifeline for decades for countless businesses too small or precarious to be able to borrow from banks, which typically lend to big state-owned or state-backed firms.

With concern growing about a cash crunch at small and medium-sized enterprises, which account for about three-quarters of all jobs created each year, the government has begun bringing these backstreet moneylenders out of the shadows.

Liu Ping, a researcher with the People's Bank of China, said earlier this month that the central bank had completed the draft of a regulation that would make it legal for individuals to extend loans. And in provinces like Zhejiang, regulators have allowed firms that don't take deposits to start lending to small businesses.

"The government is going to accept what it previously wanted to crack down on, or even get rid of," said Yuan Gangming, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the country's top policy institute.


Estimates of the scale of informal banking range widely. Some studies put it at 10 percent to 20 percent of total lending in the economy.

Wu Xiaoling, a lawmaker and a former vice governor at the central bank, said that legalizing the informal market would "give freedom to people who play with their own money." China has been experimenting with non-bank lending for the past three years, especially in the countryside, a priority for policy makers seeking to narrow the gulf between urban and rural incomes.

In 2007, 31 nontraditional financial institutions were established, including 19 village and township banks, according to the China Banking Regulatory Commission. Citigroup won permission last month to set up two lending firms in rural China.

"A banking system that is fit for big cities certainly is not so fit for rural areas," said Zhao Xijun, a finance professor with the China Renmin University in Beijing. "There are blank areas to be filled."

One finance company that opened last month in the rural fringes of Wenzhou, a bastion of private enterprise in eastern China, is Yongjia Ruifeng Small-Sum Loan Holdings.

Pan Xianyong, Ruifeng's general manager, said he had extended about 50 million yuan in loans within a month of opening Oct. 18. The company, which is not allowed to take deposits, expects to have exhausted its initial 150 million yuan in loanable funds within three months.

Pan said that Ruifeng's customers were generally people "who can't get loans from banks. Some of them don't even have a business license."

But he said Ruifeng knew its customers and so was comfortable lending to those with apparently risky profiles. "We know who he is and who his wife is," Pan said.

About 100 firms like Ruifeng have received approval in the past few weeks to start business, according to reports in the Chinese media, including The Beijing Morning Post.

One businessman who had been unable to borrow from established banks is Ye Shengtao, who got a credit line of five million yuan from Ruifeng to run his tea and potato processing firm.

"It's much easier than applying for a loan from a bank," Ye said. "I applied and got the credit in a single day. It makes my life easier." Ye's loan came with a monthly interest rate of 1.5 percent, or more than 18 percent a year.

The authorities are treading carefully to control the new finance companies' risks. In Zhejiang, where Wenzhou is located, these companies must register capital of at least 50 million yuan.

The maximum interest they can charge is four times the benchmark rates set by the central bank, currently 6.66 percent for one-year loans, and 70 percent of the loans they extend must be less than 500,000 yuan.

Zhao, the Renmin professor, said the risks were not necessarily greater than those taken by big banks. "Just look at what happened to the well-established banks on Wall Street," he said.
 

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China to build second rail line into Xinjiang: state media

China insists rail and road links help bring much-needed economic development to poor parts of the country such as Xinjiang.
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Nov 25, 2008
China will spend more than 17 billion dollars building a second rail line into its Muslim-populated and resource-rich far northwest Xinjiang region, state press reported Tuesday.

Work on the railway further linking Xinjiang with the rest of China will begin next year with the new line to run alongside the existing 1,892-kilometre (1,173-mile) one, Xinhua news agency said.

Xinjiang is populated by ethnic Uighur Muslims, many of who have chafed under China's more than 50-year rule of the region and complained of Chinese repression.

When the first line was completed in 1999 extending through to Xinjiang's historic Silk Road oasis town of Kashgar, the number of Han Chinese moving into the region increased markedly.

Detractors of the line have claimed that such transport links have worked greatly to consolidate China's rule over the restive region, which borders Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Pakistan.

However China insists rail and road links help bring much-needed economic development to poor parts of the country such as Xinjiang.

The new 120-billion-yuan (17.6-billion-dollar) railway will be dedicated to passenger travel, freeing up the old line to be used only for cargo transport, Xinhua said.

The cargo line will be able to carry resources out of the mineral-rich region, including oil, coal and cotton, it said.

The news of the second line came on the same day other sections of China's state-run press announced the discovery of 23 billion tonnes of coal in Xinjiang.

According to Xinhua, the government will also invest up to 100 billion yuan improving Xinjiang roads from 2009 to 2013.

Late last month, China announced it would invest nearly 300 billion dollars in its overburdened rail system, partly as a stimulus measure aimed at blunting the impact of the global financial crisis.

The investment is also part of plans to extend the country's railway network from the current roughly 78,000 miles to nearly 100,000 miles by 2010.
 

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One of China's most overlooked yet most important partners in its prosperity: Greece and its shipping lines:

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Greece, China seal huge port deal with Hu on hand

US-China economic talks set for December 4-5 in Beijing
The United States and China will hold a fifth round of high-level talks under the so-called "strategic economic dialogue" December 4-5 in Beijing, officials said Tuesday. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will lead the US delegation and will be joined by Agriculture Secretary Ed Schafer, Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt, US Trade Representative Susan Schwab, EPA Administrator Stephen Johnson, and other officials. The meeting "will focus on strategies for managing macroeconomic risks and promoting balanced economic growth, strengthening cooperation in energy and environment, confronting the challenges to trade, promoting open investment environments, and furthering international economic cooperation," a Treasury statement said. The dialogue was launched by Presidents George W. Bush and Hu Jintao in September 2006.
by Staff Writers
Athens (AFP) Nov 25, 2008
Visiting Chinese President Hu Jintao on Tuesday oversaw the signing of a long-awaited deal putting Chinese container giant Cosco in charge of cargo facilities at the key Mediterranean port of Piraeus.

Hu and Greek Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis attended a signing ceremony for the 4.35-billion-euro (5.5-billion-dollar) deal which will give Cosco control of Piraeus' main container terminal for 35 years.

Both leaders stressed the importance of the deal that sets up Greece as a major entry point for Chinese products into the European Union and the southeastern European continent.

"We intend to deepen our shipping cooperation, and examine the creation of a system for shipping cooperation... using (Greek) ports and the (Piraeus) transit centre... to open up third-party markets for common gain," Hu said.

"Greek ports can operate as transit centres for Chinese products to European Union states but also the broader area of southeastern Europe and the eastern Mediterranean," Karamanlis added.

Under the terms of the concession, Cosco is expected to modernise Piraeus' container terminal and boost its annual capacity from 1.6 to 3.7 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU).

The deal is strongly opposed by the Greek dockers' union which staged a demonstration outside the Greek parliament on Tuesday.

"Cosco Go Home" read a banner held by the demonstrators, who fear the new operators will bring large-scale lay-offs.

They also argue that the influx of cheap Chinese goods will undermine the already shaky Greek family-owned store sector.

"The port workers are opposed to this sellout," the demonstrators said in a statement. "The Piraeus container terminal is already a profitable operation."

Riot police prevented the dockers from approaching the Greek Prime Minister's offices where Karamanlis and Hu, who arrived here Monday on a three-day visit, held bilateral talks before the ceremony.

Greece has spent years wooing China's massive trade industry, touting its position as a strategic partner with easy access to Balkan and European Union markets.

The Cosco deal is also a personal boon for Karamanlis whose administration has been hurt by unpopular reforms and is badly trailing in the polls.

Hong Kong-based global transport operator Hutchison Whampoa is also engaged in talks for the concession at the container terminal of Salonika, Greece's main northern port and a major gateway into the Balkans.

Greek telecommunications firm Ote also signed a deal on Tuesday with Chinese counterpart Huawei while public television networks Ert of Greece and CCTV of China were to seal additional agreements.

Hu earlier Tuesday visited the iconic Acropolis temple, and met with the secretary general of Greece's Communist Party, Aleka Papariga, who is among the opponents of the Cosco deal.

"The Chinese Communist Party is aware of this: here in Greece, we oppose the privatisation of ports, mountains, beaches etc," she told reporters.

The Chinese leader will spend the final day of his visit on Wednesday on the island of Crete, where the Greeks plan to invest around one billion euros on a new container terminal in Tymbaki, on the island's southern Messara Bay.

Political relations between Greece and China grew closer after Athens hosted the 2004 Olympics and transferred part of its experience to the Chinese for last summer's Beijing Games.

Private business deals predate this rapprochement -- Greece's world-leading ship owners set up a foothold in China years ago, placing major orders with the Asian giant's booming shipyards and providing the bulk of the tankers that transport the majority of China's oil imports.

Hu's visit to Greece is the first by a Chinese head of state since his predecessor Jiang Zemin came in 2000.
 

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Fund to help Chinese small businesses

by Staff Writers
Shanghai (AFP) Nov 24, 2008
A Chinese industry association for small and medium-sized businesses said Monday it plans to establish a three-billion-yuan (440 million dollars) venture capital fund for its members.

The fund is part of efforts to help small businesses weather the financial crisis along with establishing a bank dedicated to small and medium-sized businesses, the association said in a statement.

The fund will be established by the year end and money will be raised through private equity, according to the China Association of Small and Medium Enterprises' website.

Industrial companies with sales revenue of up to 300 million yuan would be eligible for assistance from the fund and the bank, the head of the association Li Zibin told the official Xinhua news agency.

Difficulty raising capital has been a major threat to the small and medium sized businesses' survival, he was cited as saying.

About 67,000 small and medium sized companies with sales exceeding 5 million yuan closed down in the first half of 2008 due to the economic slowdown and a tight monetary policy, Xinhua reported, citing statistics from the National Development and Reform Committee.

China to cut tariffs up to 30 percent: report
China will reduce tariffs on agricultural and non-agricultural products by 20 to 30 percent, state media reported Monday, citing a senior trade diplomat.

The move is to help boost global trade amid the international financial crisis, the China Securities Journal said, citing Zhang Xiangchen, a senior envoy at the Chinese Permanent Mission to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Zhang was not quoted as giving any timetable for when the cuts would take place.

It was not clear if the tariff cuts would affect all products imported by China. A Chinese commerce ministry official contacted by AFP Monday said she was unable to clarify the matter.

The average tariff on agricultural products now is 15.2 percent, compared with 54 percent before China entered the WTO in 2001, the report said.

A surge in imports from China could have potentially huge significance for the global economy, as it is now the world's third-largest importer after the United States and Germany.
 

bladerunner

Banned Idiot
Looks like things could turn to custard for China, if this became a worldwide trend as it would be cheaper to export from Mexico to Europe as well. Also China has not reached the stage of developing its own indigenous products that the world wants

China Losing Luster with U.S. Manufacturers
A new survey finds rising worries about product quality and intellectual-property theft. More U.S. companies are looking to Mexico and their own backyard
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By Pete Engardio
wo years of disastrous quality-control breakdowns, from foul fish and lead-tainted toys to poisoned drugs and dairy products, are taking their toll on China's allure as a manufacturing platform. A new study by supply-chain consulting firm AMR Research found that quality concerns are among the chief reasons U.S. manufacturers are scaling back plans to source more goods from China.
Instead, U.S. companies are looking harder at Mexico and other locales closer to home when exploring where to put new capacity. The findings are based on a survey of 130 U.S. manufacturers, ranging from producers of drugs (BusinessWeek, 9/4/08) and computers to auto parts. The survey, completed in mid-October, found a sharp swing in attitudes toward China since May, when AMR conducted a similar study.
The reasons for the shift suggest serious problems for China's export machine that go far beyond the concerns over rising costs for wages, shipping, and materials that got a lot of attention earlier this year.
AMR asked U.S. manufacturers to rate different regions around the world (China and the U.S. were each counted as region unto themselves) on 15 different risks tied to sourcing products for sale in America. Just a few months ago the biggest concerns over China were rising factory wages and the hike in trans-Pacific shipping costs owing to soaring fuel prices. Since then, the 60% plunge in oil prices and a sharp falloff in U.S. imports from China have caused spot freight prices on ocean shipping to crash.
China Is Tops in Manufacturing Risk
Now, the biggest concerns over China are quality and theft of intellectual property (BusinessWeek.com, 4/27/06). Half of respondents to the survey cited China as the biggest source of "risk" for product quality failure. Fifty-seven percent rated China as the biggest risk of intellectual-property infringement. Both categories represented sharp increases from May. No other region was named as the biggest source of risk in those two areas by more than 7% of respondents.
China is in a league of its own in terms of risks associated with intellectual property and quality," says Kevin O'Marah, AMR's chief strategist.
In fact, China ranked highest in 9 of the 15 risk factors. Rising labor costs are still an important factor for businesses, with 35% citing China as the leading source of concern. Other risk categories where China ranked highest included regulatory compliance, commodity price volatility, supply-chain security breaches, and information technology problems. The shortage of Chinese managerial talent—long one of the top risk factors during the go-go era that ended last year—has tailed off as a major worry.
The findings don't suggest a mass pullout from China, O'Marah says. Two out of three companies said they still plan to expand there, mainly because they already have operations and component suppliers in the mainland. But that's a big falloff since May, when four out of five companies said they had China expansion plans. The number of companies saying they plan to actually decrease sourcing from China rose from 9% to 17%. Asia in general is falling from favor as an import source, the AMR study found.
Less-Visible Costs of Outsourcing to China
Where are the hottest new places for manufacturing investment? For U.S. companies, Latin America seems poised to be the big winner. The number of companies planning Latin expansions rose from four out of five in May to five out of six in October. Mexico is by far seen as the leading destination, cited by 73% as the primary source for new outsourcing. AMR also found that more production work is expected to shift to the U.S., with the percentage of companies planning to invest at home rising from 22% to 33%. Of course, this snapshot of corporate plans may have changed since the survey was taken. The deepening U.S. recession may prompt U.S. companies to curtail expansion anywhere.
The souring attitude should be disturbing to China's leadership. If the issue were just eroding price advantages, that would be less cause for alarm. Costs could swing back in China's favor, for example, with fluctuations in currency rates, commodity prices, or changes in China's job market. What's more, Chinese manufacturers have a long history of sacrificing profit margins with lowball pricing to win market share.
The AMR study suggests, however, that U.S. companies are starting to better appreciate the less-visible costs of producing in China. Quality problems, rampant piracy (BusinessWeek, 10/2/08), allegations of sweatshop abuses, worker protests, and other factors not only drive up costs but also harm the value of brands and corporate reputations. "Companies are realizing that the fully loaded costs of importing from China are a lot higher than they imagined," says O'Marah.
Trouble is, China will not be able to improve its quality problem overnight. It will require a long-term transformation of China's regulatory bureaucracy, legal system, and management practices. And Beijing has been promising to control intellectual-property theft for decades, with unimpressive results. If China doesn't start making progress fast, the current slump in export manufacturing (BusinessWeek, 3/27/08) could be the beginning of a longer-term pullback.
Engardio is an international senior writer for BusinessWeek .
 

flyzies

Junior Member
This is both a blessing and a headache for the finance ministry and central bank...

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China’s Currency Reserves Rise to Record $2 Trillion (Update1)

Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- China’s foreign-exchange reserves topped $2 trillion for the first time, strengthening the nation’s finances as the government boosts spending and cuts interest rates to counter the financial crisis.

National Bureau of Statistics chief economist Yao Jingyuan cited the increase at a forum in Beijing today, without giving an exact number. Trade surpluses helped to swell China’s reserves, the world’s biggest, to $1.9 trillion at the end of September, according to the central bank.

The Peoples Bank of China cut rates yesterday by the most in 11 years, less than three weeks after the government announced a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus plan. Premier Wen Jiabao is trying to prevent a deeper slowdown in the world’s fourth-biggest economy as construction slumps and exports wane.

“This milestone leaves China with a strong fiscal position,” said David Cohen, an economist at Action Economics in Singapore. “It leaves them less constrained in choosing to pursue this fiscal expansionary policy.”

China reported a record $35.2 billion trade surplus last month.

Standard & Poor’s cited the reserves and the nation’s “strong fiscal position” when it upgraded China’s long-term debt rating to A+, the fifth-highest grade, on July 31.

Yao quoted the $2 trillion figure while arguing that China was stronger than when the Asian financial crisis hit in 1997 and 1998.

China is grappling with how best to manage the reserves, forecast by the International Monetary Fund to reach $2.2 trillion by the end of December and $2.7 trillion by the end of 2009. Diversifying away from U.S. Treasury bills has brought losses.

China Investment Corp., the nation’s sovereign wealth fund, put money into Morgan Stanley and Blackstone Group LP before their stocks plunged.
 

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China's social investment to total 18 trln yuan in 2009
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2008-11-27 13:20:32 Print

Special Report: Global Financial Crisis

Backgrounder: A timeline of China's recent economic-stimulus measures

A timeline of China's macro-economic policy shifts over 30 years
·China's total social investment is predicted to reach 18 trillion yuan in 2009.
·"China's total social investment ...is expected to top 16 trillion yuan this year,"
·Strict approval procedure will be imposed on projects submitted by local economic planners.

BEIJING, Nov. 27 (Xinhua) -- China's total social investment is predicted to reach 18 trillion yuan (2.64 trillion U.S. dollars) in 2009, the National Development and Reform Committee (NDRC), the country's top economic planner, announced here on Thursday.

"China's total social investment exceeded 13 trillion yuan in 2007 and is expected to top 16 trillion yuan this year," said NDRC head Zhang Ping. "The 4 trillion stimulus package is only part of the whole picture."

Zhang said the central stimulus package was roughly divided into seven parts, with 1.8 trillion yuan going towards large-scale infrastructure projects such as railways, roads, airports and the national grid.

Areas most affected by the May 12 earthquake in the southwestern Sichuan Province will get 1 trillion yuan for reconstruction.

The rest of the stimulus money will be spent on affordable housing, rural welfare, infrastructure, medical and cultural development, environmental protection and industrial restructuring.

Next year's total social investment will have the same focus as the central plan, which involves improving living standards and promoting rural development, according to Zhang.

Media reports on Nov. 25 said 24 of China's 33 provinces have issued local investment plans for the next two to five years, with the southern Yunnan Province taking the lead by 3 trillion yuan planned for five years.

The total figure was estimated to climb near 18 trillion yuan, almost equal to the NDRC prediction for next year's social investment, arousing concerns that the "investment rush" could lead to overlapping projects.

While welcoming provincial governments' participation in boosting domestic demand, Zhang said the NDRC would impose a strict review and approval procedure on all projects submitted by local economic planners.

"Only those projects in accordance with the national development plan will be considered," he stressed.

The NDRC will give priority to local construction plans that focus on industrial restructuring, raising living standards and environmental improvement, according to Zhang.

"We will closely examine provincial projects and make sure to stamp out potential duplication," Zhang added.
 

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China losing competitive edge amid crisis: President Hu

BEIJING, Nov 30 (AFP) Nov 30, 2008

President Hu Jintao has warned China's economy is losing its competitive edge amid the ongoing global financial crisis, state media reported Sunday.

Hu made the downbeat remarks Saturday at a meeting of the Communist Party's elite Political Bureau, according to party mouthpiece the People's Daily.

"There is a clear slowdown in global economic growth, with a marked weakening in external demand, and China is losing its competitive advantages," he was quoted as saying.

"Global competition is intensifying and the pressure from protectionism is increasing."

In October, China's export growth slowed to 19.2 percent from 21.5 percent in September.

"The global financial crisis continues to expand, and the external conditions facing our economy are getting more complex," Hu said, according to the paper.

"The impact of the global financial crisis on the Chinese economy continues to deepen."

China's economy, the world's fourth-largest, expanded by 9.0 percent in the third quarter, the lowest level in more than five years.

The World Bank said last week it expected the Chinese economy to grow by 9.2 percent in 2008 before hitting a 19-year low of 7.5 percent in 2009.


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crobato

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It sounds a bit optimistic to me.


================================

China expects economy to grow 10% in 2009, expert


China's economy is expected to grow by 10 percent in 2009 despite the impact of the financial crisis and global economic downturn, a researcher with the country's Cabinet said.

"Although dim world economic situation has led to weak overseas demand,domestic consumption and investments, vast development potential decided the country's economy will grow at fast paces," said Zhang Liqun, the Development Research Center of the State Council researcher.

He forecasted China's economic growth would accelerate largely at the second half of next year.

Zhang said his remarks were based on the country's huge domestic consumption, and investment potentials; sufficient fund, technology, labor and social security, and the government's gradually mature macro-economic control measures.

"Personal income continues to increase as millions of migrant workers flow into the city to get their lives improved. Enlarging demand for houses and autos will form huge and lasting consuming power," he said.

"However, domestic enterprises need to accelerate their paces in upgrading business structure, in a bid to better cope with severe world economic situation," he said.

China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew to 20.16 trillion yuan (2.96 trillion U.S. dollars) in the first three quarters of this year, up 9.9 percent from the same period of last year. The growth rate was 2.3 percentage points lower than the same period of last year.

In addition, Zhang expected the country's consumer price index, or the main inflation gauge, to increase by three percent in 2009 year on year. The index hit a record of 8.7 percent in February, and went up seven percent in the first nine months, far high from the government's aim of 4.8 percent.

Xinhua News Agency November 30, 2008
 

crobato

Colonel
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Interesting to note that 70% of China's GDP comes from the cities.

Beijing is China's most innovative city: report



Chinese capital of Beijing tops a nationwide city innovation list, according to a report released by the China City Development Research Institute on Sunday.

Shanghai, the business and financial center, and Shenzhen, which borders Hong Kong, ranked second and third on the list, ahead of Guangzhou, Tianjin and Chongqing.

Cheng Andong, the institute's executive director, said cities, which generate 70 percent of gross domestic product and are home to over 90 percent universities and research agencies, play a key role in building China into an innovative country.

The cities should develop more advanced technologies to help transform the growth mode and structures of the national economy, Cheng told a forum in Beijing.

Officials and scholars at the forum also called to introduce more innovative government management patterns and build more responsible and low-lost governments.

(Xinhua News Agency December 1, 2008)
 
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