Chinese Economics Thread

gelgoog

Brigadier
Registered Member
China is still behind in a lot of things. It will probably take another decade before it is either at parity or ahead in all industrial fields.
It is not just behind in semiconductors but also in aviation engines.
With regards to the semiconductors the main stumbling block is lack of advanced mass production capable lithography machines.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
To be more specific, only microelectronics, the cutting edge, is where China is behind others about 2 to 5 years depending on who you ask. Ask some person in Washington DC, and they will say 10 to 20 years.

As for the mature nodes in semiconductors, China not only has sufficient production to satisfy its own domestic needs, it is also a top producer of such chips in the world.

To be behind 2 to 3 years from the leading edge in semiconductor manufacturing, is not really what we can considered to be that far behind or backwards. They are right there in the race.

How manufacturing works, is the product, whatever product, will not immediately latch onto the newest chip. The better chip and newest chip, will cost more. If product does not really need because that better chip does not make the product better, then they do not need it.

Huawei built the 5G network nation with a stockpile of 7nm chips from what I can gather. Their basestation needed that 7nm chip.

That is it.

The cutting edge of the semiconductor industry is the last battleground of this current tech war, at least this phase of it.

The Americans are quite ahead from what I understand in the life-science industries, in other words, big pharma making expensive drugs. In this area, I doubt the PRC will ever catch up, because Chinese society have different priorities.

So we see how Huawei and SMIC and all their partners do with the EUV, then after that, I really not expect much further fireworks like we saw before, like in the Huawei 5G versus the US government tech war, or this semiconductor tech war.

I'd say China is behind ~5 years from the leading edge in semiconductor manufacturing (TSMC and Samsung) and better or on par with others. Intel is slightly ahead due to having EUV machine
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
China is still behind in a lot of things. It will probably take another decade before it is either at parity or ahead in all industrial fields.
It is not just behind in semiconductors but also in aviation engines.
With regards to the semiconductors the main stumbling block is lack of advanced mass production capable lithography machines.
Yup agree, the target date is 2030 and being a Chinese Chauvinist I'm seeing it being done by 2028, the evidence are there right now we are seeing tremendous progress in critical and strategic sector 1) Aircraft engine, industrial turbine, Nuclear power plants to name a few and the other is Semiconductors with DUVi and the incoming EUVi. All of these we have to thank Uncle Sam for realizing our potential.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
I'd say China is behind ~5 years from the leading edge in semiconductor manufacturing (TSMC and Samsung) and better or on par with others. Intel is slightly ahead due to having EUV machine
Sir right now we're a generation behind BUT ahead of the US if Huawei release its Smartphone using SMIC N+3 5nm chip this year, From reports we know that TSMC Arizona FAB is delayed and will be commercially producing 5nm chip by late 2025 or early 2026. From the grapevine we know China will introduced its EUVI next year and Intel is still having difficulty in producing 7nm chips what more of 3nm even though they have the latest ASML EUVi machine. I always remember @superdog post years back, you need a master craftmanship to produced a masterpieces not some hi tech tools.
 

GiantPanda

Junior Member
Registered Member
To be more specific, only microelectronics, the cutting edge, is where China is behind others about 2 to 5 years depending on who you ask. Ask some person in Washington DC, and they will say 10 to 20 years.

As for the mature nodes in semiconductors, China not only has sufficient production to satisfy its own domestic needs, it is also a top producer of such chips in the world.

Agree on most of your premises except the one highlighted. China does not currently have the capacity to satisfy all its needs in mature chips. It will in the near future. This will create both massive opportunities for the local industry and huge loses for Western companies like TI and Infineon supplying chips for everything from consumer electronics to cars.

China is the largest market in the world for chips by several orders of magnitude. The worst is yet to come for foreign firms in this market because of what the West and Japan had done in forcing Chinese firms to buy local or die.
 

Xiongmao

New Member
Registered Member
The Americans are quite ahead from what I understand in the life-science industries, in other words, big pharma making expensive drugs. In this area, I doubt the PRC will ever catch up, because Chinese society have different priorities.
This is not quite correct.Most pharmaceutical pre-cursors are made by Chinese companies. If China were to put a ban of exports of these pre-cursors, then the US pharmaceutical industry would collapse overnight. Also most generic drugs are outright made by Chinese companies. The situation is pretty much the same as the semi-conductors except China's position is stronger in pharmaceuticals.
 

proelite

Junior Member
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This btw is what happens when China doesn’t react to American sanctions. Everyone that thinks china is hurting certain local industry will put tariffs on China for that industry under the pretense of over capacity

This kind of tariff that doesn't single out a single nation is fine in my book. China doesn't need to react to this.

China should work to transition their exports to mostly critical inputs and commodities. Stuff that no sane government would want to tariff.
 

horse

Major
Registered Member
Agree on most of your premises except the one highlighted. China does not currently have the capacity to satisfy all its needs in mature chips. It will in the near future. This will create both massive opportunities for the local industry and huge loses for Western companies like TI and Infineon supplying chips for everything from consumer electronics to cars.

China is the largest market in the world for chips by several orders of magnitude. The worst is yet to come for foreign firms in this market because of what the West and Japan had done in forcing Chinese firms to buy local or die.

Yeah, you're right, now that I think about it.

Spoke too soon, I guess. A couple of years from now, then who knows.

:D
 
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