Chinese Economics Thread

no_name

Colonel
China and UK agree on direct yuan-pound trading

Deal puts London in forefront of race to become renminbi hub for Europe

[BEIJING] China and the UK will introduce direct trading between the yuan and the British pound, helping London steal a march on Frankfurt and Paris to become Europe's hub for the Chinese currency.

The two nations also agreed on an 80 billion yuan (S$16.3 billion) quota for financial institutions in London to invest in China's domestic securities under the Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (RQFII) programme, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said at a briefing in Beijing yesterday, after meeting Chinese Vice-Premier Ma Kai.

Mr Osborne said the two countries will ensure access to yuan liquidity through additional settlement and clearing agreements in London.

"My ambition is to make sure London is the western hub for yuan business," Mr Osborne said, adding that the city would work in partnership with Hong Kong.

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Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
For all the talk of capital investment gone berserk in China, China railway length is less than US railway length circa 1840. I though this is an interesting article to bring some reality to the debate. In short China still has long way in capital investment before it reach the proverbial "Bridge to nowhere" . It will support the economy for decades to come. Of course this is Bloomberg article, It just can't help itself bringing the subject of Ordos and Ghost city


China Railways Trailing 1880 U.S. Show Spending Scope: Economy
By Bloomberg News - Oct 16, 2013 10:56 PM CT


After $5 trillion in spending on infrastructure over the past five years, China still needs more.

The nation struggles to provide drinkable tap water, millions of people live in shantytowns and the length of the rail network is yet to match that of the U.S. in 1880.
Enlarge image Beijing Subway System

Commuters disembark from a train while others wait to board at a subway station in Beijing, China. Photographer: Tomohiro Ohsumi/Bloomberg
Beijing Subway System Shows Need for Expansion
0:53

Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Christine Hah reports on the crowded Beijing subway system, the oldest metro in mainland China, which transports over 10 million passengers each day. After about $5 trillion in spending on infrastructure over the past five years, China still needs more. The nation struggles to provide drinkable tap water, millions of people live in shantytowns and the length of the rail network is yet to match that of the U.S. in 1880. (Source: Bloomberg)

While investors focus on ghost cities and unneeded factories as evidence of overinvestment, gaps in infrastructure will allow the spigot of state spending to be open for years to come, according to HSBC Holdings Plc. That may serve as a safety net, limiting the scale of any slowdown during the economic restructuring that Communist Party leaders are set to map out at a meeting in Beijing next month.

“China still has plenty of room to keep building useful bridges before building bridges to nowhere,” said Qu Hongbin, Hong Kong-based chief China economist at HSBC. “Even after five or six years of massive infrastructure development, China’s infrastructure is only at a level similar to that of Japan in the 1960s or 1970s.”

Installed in March, President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang have already used infrastructure spending to support growth in what Bank of America Corp. described as a “mini fiscal stimulus” this year. After expansion cooled during the first and second quarters, the State Council rolled out measures targeting city infrastructure such as drainage systems, waste-water treatment, subways and light rail, roads and bridges, power grids, railway construction and shantytown redevelopment.
Growth Report

The effects may be visible in tomorrow’s report on third-quarter expansion from the National Bureau of Statistics, which will say that the economy grew 7.8 percent from a year earlier, based on the median estimate of 46 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Any reading below the government’s 7.5 percent annual target would stoke anticipation of fresh stimulus measures. Li said last week that growth exceeded 7.5 percent in the first nine months of the year, following a report of 7.6 percent expansion in the first half.

Data tomorrow will also show that authorities maintained the pace of fixed-asset investment excluding rural areas at 20.3 percent for the first nine months of the year, equal to the January-August pace, according to the median economist estimate. The statistics bureau also reports September figures for industrial production and retail sales.

Investment in national railways and joint-venture railways rose 12.2 percent to 327 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2013 from a year earlier, according to a report in today’s Economic Information Daily, a newspaper of the official Xinhua News Agency.
FDI Report

Separately, China’s inbound, non-financial foreign direct investment rose 4.9 percent in September from a year earlier, following a 0.6 percent gain in August, Commerce Ministry data showed today. In Singapore, non-oil exports in September fell 1.2 percent from a year earlier as manufacturers shipped fewer electronics and pharmaceuticals, a report showed.

Elsewhere in the world, retail-sales figures are due in the U.K., Sweden and the Netherlands report on September unemployment and the U.S. will see weekly reports on jobless claims and the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index.

China’s fixed-asset investment in infrastructure totaled 33.1 trillion yuan in the five years through August, based on data compiled by Bank of America. The figures include spending on transportation, such as roads and railways, as well as utilities and water facilities.
Subway Absence

The gaps in infrastructure range from the absence of a subway system in Lanzhou, a city of about 3.6 million and the capital of northwestern Gansu province, to passengers crushed together during peak hours on Beijing underground lines.

The average Internet speed of 1.7 megabits per second ranked 98th worldwide and compared with 14.2 megabits in No. 1-rated South Korea in the first quarter of this year, according to Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM), which provides services to speed delivery of Web content.

“I hate the traffic jams,” Li Xuejun, a taxi driver, said last month in Jinan, the capital of Shandong province, as cars, buses, trucks and motor-tricycles jostled for space. Li said he was looking forward to the completion of the West Second Ring highway bridge, an 8-kilometer (5-mile) highway completed this month with a price tag of 2 billion yuan.

China is putting about 5,500 kilometers of railway lines into operation this year, bringing the total length to 100,000 kilometers, Xinhua reported in August. The government said in July that it plans to grant ownership and operating rights on some city and regional railways to local government and private investors.
Sun’s Goal

In the early 20th century, Sun Yat-sen, Republican China’s first president after the fall of the Qing Dynasty, set a goal of 160,000 kilometers. In the U.S., the rail network reached about 148,000 kilometers by 1880 and peaked at 409,000 in 1916, shrinking to 224,000 kilometers in 2011, according to the Association of American Railroads.


In Beijing, a city known for architectural signature pieces such as the Bird’s Nest stadium built for the 2008 Olympics, people died in flooding last year because the city’s drainage system was inadequate to handle the biggest rainstorm in six decades. The downpour killed 77 and submerged vehicles and flooded homes, resulting in about 11.6 billion yuan in losses, according to Xinhua.
Drinking Water

China has pledged to ensure the supply of safe drinking water by 2015 to more than 100 million people in rural areas who don’t have access to it now, Xinhua reported in August.

At Credit Suisse Group AG, economist Dong Tao says that the new Communist Party leadership regards infrastructure spending as a “stabilizer” rather than the “accelerator” used in the global financial crisis, when a 4 trillion yuan stimulus package helped reverse the nation’s slump.

Over coming quarters, officials will jab the pedal as needed to keep growth around the 7.5 percent to 8 percent level, according to Tao, chief regional economist for Asia excluding Japan.

Potential obstacles to infrastructure spending include government debt that analysts at banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. say is approaching levels that helped trigger turmoil in other economies.

The National Audit Office is working on the broadest review of government borrowing in two years, with former Finance Minister Xiang Huaicheng saying in April that local-government finance vehicles may hold more than 20 trillion yuan of debt, almost double the official tally from 2010.
Bridge Collapse

Some of the nation’s design and construction failures have been deadly. In August 2012, a new $300 million, eight-lane suspension bridge collapsed in the northeastern city of Harbin, sending four trucks tumbling and leaving three dead. The high-speed rail system suffered a blow from a collision in July 2011 that killed 40 people. Former Railway Minister Liu Zhijun was given a suspended death sentence this year for abuse of power and taking bribes.

China also has overinvestment in some areas. The government on Oct. 15 posted a plan by the State Council to cut excess capacity in steel, cement and aluminum.

Some municipalities have turned into ghost cities after local governments failed to attract residents to fill new towers. A prime example is Ordos, Inner Mongolia, where cranes stood silently above half-finished developments in July after a building spree that included an expanded airport, a sports stadium and high-rise apartments surrounding an artificial lake.
Japanese Debt
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
17 October 2013 Last updated at 09:37 ET
Osborne agrees to China investing in UK nuclear plants
COMMENTS (946)
The Chancellor, George Osborne, has announced that the UK will allow Chinese companies to take a stake in British nuclear power plants.
The announcement also said that Chinese firms might eventually be allowed to take majority stakes in British nuclear plants.
Mr Osborne made the announcement on the last day of a trade visit to China.
The first China deal could be as early as next week, with the go ahead for a new £14bn plant at the Hinkley C site.
Also on Thursday, a report commissioned for the prime minister warned of a growing risk of power shortages over the next few years.
The Royal Academy of Engineering said the closure of older power plants and the slow progress in building news ones was likely to stretch the system "close to its limits".
Supply is expected to come under strain in the winter of 2014-15.
Most existing coal-fired plants are expected to be closed in 2015 to meet European Union pollution directives, while many gas-fired power plants are not being used at the moment because gas is so expensive.
These would take time and money to bring back on stream.
'Fair and affordable'
The Hinkley C project, in Somerset, will be the first new nuclear power station since 1995.
Hinkley C's construction will be led by the French state-controlled giant, EDF, which has been looking for a partner or partners to share the costs.
EDF has been negotiating with three Chinese nuclear giants on the Hinkley C project - CGN, CNNC and SNPTC - all of which have been seen by the chancellor this week.
Our business editor, Robert Peston, says he has been told that one or two of these will end up owning perhaps 30% of Hinkley C.
A DECC spokesperson said talks about a contract were underway: "Negotiations remain ongoing between the government and EDF on the potential terms of an investment contract for Hinkley Point C. No agreement has as yet been reached.
"A contract will only be offered if it is value for money, fair and affordable, in line with government policy on no public subsidy for new nuclear and consistent with state-aid rules."
Securing supplies
Mr Osborne made the announcement while on a visit to the Taishan nuclear plant in southern China on Thursday which is itself a collaboration between EDF and the China General Nuclear Power Group (CGNPG).
He said: "Today is another demonstration of the next big step in the relationship between Britain and China, the world's oldest civil nuclear power and the world's fastest growing civil nuclear power."
The memorandum of understanding also includes roles for British companies in China's nuclear programme.
China has 17 nuclear reactors in operation, which provide about 1% of its electricity production capacity.
In the future, Chinese firms might be allowed more than just minority stakes in UK plants. The government said that "over time, stakes in subsequent new power stations could be majority stakes".
At the weekend, the Energy Minister, Ed Davey, said he believed that a "massive" wave of investment from China, Japan and Korea would secure UK's power supply into the future.
Securing future energy supplies is a major challenge.
A portion of energy bills is being diverted to alternative energy investment in wind farms and solar energy.
But the government believes that renewable energy sources cannot provide enough power for the country's energy needs.
The industry regulator, Ofgem, has also warned of the "unprecedented challenge" to secure power supplies.
It said spare electricity power production capacity could fall to 2% by 2015, increasing the risk of blackouts.
The Bull....
17 October 2013 Last updated at 23:36 ET
China's economic growth picks up speed in third quarter
China's economic growth picked up pace in the July-to-September period, the first rise in three quarters.
The world's second-biggest economy grew 7.8% from a year earlier, up from 7.5% expansion in the previous quarter.
The official figures also showed growth in industrial output, retail sales and fixed asset investment.
After years of blistering growth, China has seen its pace of expansion slow recently and there have been fears that growth may slow further.
China has set a growth target of 7.5% for the year. Analysts said the latest numbers indicated that it was likely that Beijing would meet this.
"This is an indication that China's economic growth is holding up in a range which is within the comfort zone of both the Chinese policymakers as well as global watchers," said Song Seng Wun, a senior economist with CIMB Research .
'Keep it going'
Over the past few decades China has relied heavily on its exports and manufacturing sectors as well as government-led infrastructure spending to help boost growth.
However, a slowdown in key markets such as the US and Europe has hurt demand for its exports.
As a result, it has been trying to spur domestic demand to offset the decline in foreign sales and also to rebalance its growth.
Earlier this year, it unveiled fresh measures to help boost the economy.
From 1 August, China has suspend value-added tax (VAT) and turnover tax for small businesses with monthly sales of less than 20,000 yuan ($3,257; £2,125).
The cabinet said the move would benefit more than six million small companies and boost employment and income for millions of people.
Policymakers said they would also implement measures to simplify customs clearance procedures, cut operational fees and facilitate the exports of small and medium-sized private enterprises.
The cabinet also announced plans to completely open China's railway construction market to private investors to develop the sector further.
It said it would set up a railway development fund, with the initial money coming from the government.
Analysts said the moves were starting to have an impact on the growth numbers.
"There is certainly a build up of momentum among the small manufacturers, which is an indication that China's policies targeted at them are working," said Tony Nash, vice-president at IHS.
Factory output rose 10.2% in September, from a year earlier. Meanwhile, retail sales rose 13.3% and fixed asset investment jumped 20.2% during the month from levels a year ago.
Tim Condon of ING added that the measures may help China sustain its growth rate in the current quarter as well.
"The mini-stimulus we've seen is enough to keep it going at this pace in the fourth quarter," Mr Condon said.
Sustainability concerns
However, there have been some concerns over whether the economic rebound is sustainable in the long run, not least due to the continued rise in property prices.
Property prices have now risen for eight months in a row, despite government efforts to cool the market.
Some analysts have said that China's new leaders, who took charge in March, have so far tolerated the price rises due to concerns over slowing economic growth.
According to some estimates, about 25% of overall investment in China goes towards property, making it one of the most important growth sectors.
But the continued surge in prices has fanned fears that asset bubbles may be forming.
"Between real estate and the lending environment, there are concerns that things may be heating up," said Mr Nash of IHS.
"If not addressed properly, and in time, it could pose a serious threat to China's growth."
Analysts said that with growth rebounding, Beijing may take measures to try and curb speculation in the property market.
"We think the recovery in the third quarter was mainly driven by the strong momentum of the property market," said Shen Jianguang, chief China economist with Mizuho Securities in Hong Kong.
"The government concerns about an over-heated property market are increasing, and tougher measures to curb rising prices may be forthcoming.
"We expect gross domestic product (GDP) growth will slow to 7.6% in the fourth quarter," he added.
The Bear.
18 October 2013 Last updated at 00:25 ET
Linda Yueh Article written by Linda Yueh
Chief business correspondent
More from Linda
China's economic growth speeds up?
COMMENTS (95)
China's economy sped up in the July-to-September quarter to expand at 7.8% year-on-year, according to official gross domestic product (GDP) figures.
That's faster than the previous quarter when GDP grew at 7.5% and the January-to March quarter's 7.7% expansion.
Unless the fourth quarter tanks, it means that the Chinese government will hit its growth target of 7.5% for the year, as the growth rate for the first nine months came in at 7.7%.
If they were to hit the target, it would be the slowest growth rate since 1999 which was the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis.
The Chinese government is aiming for a slower and better balanced economy that can grow more sustainably.
Reliability factor
But, one thing that hasn't changed is that there are more questions than ever over the reliability of Chinese figures.
It's not just GDP, but the other data releases today have also come in largely as expected: industrial production rising 10.2% from a year earlier in September, retail sales up 13.3%, fixed asset investment grew by 20.2%.
I've written about the trouble with Chinese figures before, particularly when it comes to GDP.
But, how good are the three indicators reportedly espoused by China's premier Li Keqiang as being more reliable? They are gaining prominence as they are being used by banks such as Credit Suisse and JPMorgan as an alternative index for Chinese growth.
The first indicator is electricity usage. The amount of power used by households and firms is a good gauge of consumption and one that is hard to hide. One problem is that China subsidizes some prices so it's somewhat mis-measured, but it's a decent economic indicator. Credit Suisse estimates it's around 9% annualised growth.
The amount of cargo freight is the second measure. Instead of factories saying how much they've produced (recall that they have been chastised for faking figures in Yunnan and Guangdong provinces this year), it's more reliable to take a look ourselves.
Railway cargo volume shows how much has been manufactured and is being moved around the country. But it is an under-measurement of economic activity because it only captures around 40% of GDP - the biggest part of the Chinese economy now is services. Cargo freight volumes are growing at around 21%.
The final gauge is bank loans. How much households and firms borrow over the medium and long-term reflects the amount of demand in the economy for investment.
This is why it's a good indicator of economic activity. But if this is used unproductively to build ghost cities, then it's a different way of over-stating growth. These loans are growing at about 5%.
Continued debate
It's not just Western banks that look at this data.
I understand from Chinese government researchers that a rule of thumb is if the Li Keqiang indicators show about 10-11% growth, then real GDP growth would be around 7-8%.
In which case, today's GDP figure would be consistent with the Li Keqiang index and show that the Chinese economy is speeding up.
But, there are others who are convinced that Chinese officials won't miss (bar an external crisis that can be blamed) a growth target, so none of these government-produced figures are very reliable.
Plus, none of these indicators, even viewed together, would be able to give a complete picture.
One thing is clear is that this debate is sure to run and run.
For the Chinese leadership who are keen to show that they're cracking down on fraudulent data and increasing confidence in the economy, it would help if they could indicate why they are well-equipped to produce GDP figures faster than any other major economy in the world.
Doing so in just over 2 weeks is a fairly remarkable feat for any country, much less one with 1.3 billion people. That's a lot of data to process in a rather short period of time
 

SampanViking

The Capitalist
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The news re Investment into the UK Nuclear (and presumably other energy sector) Industry is very interesting.
The question that interests me most is "what exact form will this investment take"?
By this I mean what currency will China be spending to make these investments?
It is tempting to suppose that the currency will be RMB and that this is no small part the reason that the recent multi billion currency swaps have taken place. I actually doubt this though as the point of currency swaps is to enable direct purchase trade and settlement to happen in native currency, without the need for an intermediary. Investment is a different creature and the size of the investments would rapidly exhaust the sums of the currency swaps.
In short Investment is Capital, while trade is cashflow and the swaps are facilitate the ease of cashflow.
In that light, my best guess is that the Investments will be made in US$ and that the earnings will be taken in Stirling and Euro's.
I can see that this would be of considerable interest to China as it will enable them to spend their increasingly risky looking dollar reserves and diversify both into overseas assets, but also realise the gains in non dollars.

Its actually a true win win. Hinkley C (Hinkley is just about twenty miles down the road from where I live) has been held up by a disagreement between the head contractor (EDF) and the British Government over the "Strike Price" - the pre-agreed price at which they will buy the electricity, once it is in operation.
With the Chinese deal however, the Chinese SOE company will "borrow" the money from the Forex reserves, which will be made available at a much cheaper price than any Western Firm could borrow at. This means that the cost of debt to be taken into account in the Strike Price will be massively reduced and which makes a lower strike price economically viable for all parties.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Well they say China is only good at copying but no original design. One company beat that stereotype and the name is Xiaomi. This quarter Xioamin out produce Apple 4.4 million handset vs Apple 4.3 million

Why This Chinese Company Could Replace Apple's iPhone
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By Adrian Campos | More Articles
October 21, 2013 | Comments (4)

Despite being three years old and having only 3,000 employees, private company Xiaomi could become a disruptive force in the smartphone market, currently dominated by two of the biggest companies in the world: Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ) and Samsung (NASDAQOTH: SSNLF )

Despite its small scale of operations, Xiaomi is already selling more smartphones in China than Apple. This is very surprising because there's a common belief that a company needs to be big in order to succeed as a smartphone manufacturer. Apple and Samsung dominate the market, while small companies, like BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY ) , are struggling to survive. However, Xiaomi has enough competitive advantages to avoid becoming the next BlackBerry. How does this Chinese start-up plan to conquer the fierce smartphone world?

Xiaomi's explosive growth plans
Xiaomi seems to have studied BlackBerry very well, as it is avoiding some of the biggest mistakes made by the Canadian manufacturer. Like BlackBerry, Google, and Apple, the company knows that creating a mobile operating system is the best way to promote its own payment ecosystem. However, in a world where Google's Android and Apple's iOS combine for more than 91% of total market share, Xiaomi realized it had to create not only a friendly operating system, but also something compatible with Android or iOS.

This is why, unlike BlackBerry, the company based its MIUI operating system on Android, which has an active open-source community. Therefore, any Android device can run Xiaomi's operating system. So far, more than 20 million users, including many Android users, have downloaded it.

But, Xiaomi's operating system isn't just another Android variation. From a lock screen flashlight to a one-click cache clean up option, the company has added more than 200 new features. It has also given more personalization power to the user.

So, why is Xiaomi promoting its own operating system? The company is selling its devices very cheap, practically at cost price. Therefore, it plans to get profits through its software.

During the development phase, the company tried to remove and replace Google services with its own cloud services, games, paid themes, and apps store. This shows Xiaomi is well aware of the importance that Google Play and iTunes have in Google and Apple's cash flows.

Of course, Xiaomi's apps store is not as rich as iTunes or Google Play, but unlike BlackBerry OS, the company can easily rely on Google Play to offer localized applications and content if it ships overseas.

Notice, however, that despite its size limitations, Xiaomi's app store is performing better than expected. It reached one billion downloads in only 391 days.

In terms of hardware, Xiaomi's flagship product, the Mi3 TD, has nothing to envy in the world. Compared with Apple's iPhone 5s, the Mi3 TD has bigger resolution, a more powerful camera, and larger display. More importantly, the Mi3 TD is equipped with some of the most powerful mobile processors the world has ever seen. Xiaomi's customers can choose between Nvidia's Tegra 4 quad-core -- the world's first 1.8Ghz quad-core processor -- and Qualcomm's Snapdragon 800.


Xiaomi's smartphone is so good that even Samsung's latest device, the Galaxy Note 3, may have trouble competing in China, despite having a similar processor. This is because Xiaomi offers top technology for a bargain price.

In terms of sales, Xiaomi's Mi 2S device is the most popular phone in China, according to Chinese benchmarking company Antutu. Technically, the Mi 2S performed better than HTC's flagship device, but was slower than Samsung's Octa S4. However, that was no problem for Xiaomi because its phone sold for less than half the price of Samsung's S4.

But, Xiaomi's aggressive pricing is allowing the company to capture more than just market share from Samsung. Xiaomi has already beat Apple in China. According to Quartz, the company shipped 3.3 million phones in the last quarter, versus Apple's 4.3 million.


Final foolish thoughts
Xiaomi's aggressive pricing, outperforming hardware, and user-friendly Android-based operating system have contributed to the company's amazing early success in China. The company can easily replicate this growth story in other emerging economies, where the increasing smartphone penetration ratio is still low, and customers are highly price-sensitive. It won't be hard to replace Apple in South America, East Asia, and Africa.

After it develops a strong community of users, strengthens its brand, and increases the number of applications in its store, Xiaomi can move to mature markets, where Apple and Samsung remain securely positioned.

Profit from Apple's destruction
Xiaomi has been a tremendous success story, but can they really hurt Apple's growth prospects in China? Also, Apple has a history of cranking out revolutionary products... and then creatively destroying them with something better. Read about the future of Apple in the free report, “Apple Will Destroy Its Greatest Product.” Can Apple really disrupt its own iPhones and iPads? Find out by clicking here.





Xiaomi muscles past Apple to take sixth place in China’s smartphone market as Samsung stays on top
By Kaylene Hong, Tuesday, 6 Aug '13, 11:22am
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Chinese smartphone manufacturer Xiaomi has been on a roll despite launching its first device only as recently as 2011 — it has officially overtaken Apple in the Chinese market.

The latest figures were conveyed to TNW by Canalys, an independent analyst firm, which noted that Xiaomi shipped a total of 4.4 million smartphones in China during the second quarter of 2013, inching above Apple which shipped 4.3 million units and knocking it to the seventh position. Last quarter, Apple managed to occupy the fifth spot in China’s smartphone market.

Samsung still took the lead in China in Q2 2013 with 15.5 million smartphones shipped to make up for a market share of 17.6 percent.

Despite only selling its phones in mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, Xiaomi has been garnering success by inspiring the loyalty of many consumers. Its competitively priced phones are sold in batches that, when released in phases, regularly sell out fast, often within half an hour.

The latest figures come as Xiaomi recently unveiled its $130 Hongmi phone, the lowest-priced in its range, which has received an overwhelming response so far. According to a Donews report, pre-orders for the phone on social networking site Qzone exceeded a jaw-dropping 5 million units within three days. The phone will go on sale from August 12 onward.

The up-and-coming company has been compared to Apple on a regular basis, with some even criticizing it for being an Apple clone. However, it seems that consumers are happy to flock to the lower-priced Xiaomi smartphones instead of high-end iPhones, proven by its success so far. This could make it even harder for Apple to recapture some of its lost market share in China — despite rumors of a lower-priced iPhone, it could be too little, too late.
 
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ABC78

Junior Member
Ruchir Sharma, whose book Breakout Nations has been its own breakout bestseller for some time now. It has been noted as one of Publishers Weekly Top 10 Business Books for 2012, and Foreign Policy magazine recognized it as one of the primary business books to read.

Mr. Sharma is head of emerging market equities and global macro at Morgan Stanley, where he manages around $25 billion in emerging market assets. Previously he spent many years as a contributing editor for Newsweek and as a regular contributor to The Wall Street Journal and The Economic Times. We are delighted to welcome him to this Public Affairs Program.

In 2001, a Goldman Sachs managing director named Jim O'Neill coined the acronym "BRICs" to define the big four emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. It wasn't long before American and European investors began pouring money into these markets, hoping to receive big economic gains. But that was then.

According to our guest, the golden age for these up-and-comers is fast coming to a close, as a host of other new markets going beyond these big four have emerged and are bringing with them the promise of economic success. Ruchir calls them breakout nations, and it is these countries where he says the new economic miracles will take place. Who are these countries? When and how do you determine that they are ready to take off?

Ruchir writes that he normally spends about a week each month in a different developing nation. His book is the fruit of those weekly fact-finding excursions, where travel affords him the perfect opportunity to meld his skills both as an economic analyst and as a journalist. His tools: First, he learns the macroeconomic numbers of a country. Then he travels to that distant spot, and while there, he talks to a wide variety of people from all walks of life, from the taxi driver to hotel operators, to restaurant owners. They all help to uncover the true economic picture.

His method may seem simple, but his proven success is a result of hard work, astute insights—and besides, he is very smart. For Ruchir, these grassroots experiences provide the information he needs to determine what makes economies break out or break down. The stories he tells to support his conclusions are not only entertaining, but instructive. Looking far into the future is never easy. Instead, Mr. Sharma has chosen to concentrate on the economic here and now. His premise is that economic success is hard to come by, economic growth is very hard to sustain, and that very few countries are able to make this journey to become an emerging-market star.

[video=youtube;WWez4Fug5Fk]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWez4Fug5Fk[/video]
 
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Express rail service to boost China-Europe trade
Xinhua | 2013-10-24 21:37:57

A regular express train from Poland to Southwest China's Sichuan Province is expected to be inaugurated by the end of this month, authorities with Sichuan's Chengdu City said on Thursday.

The first one-way express rail service in the opposite direction -- from Chengdu to Lodz in central Poland, crossing Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus -- began running on April 24.

The rail transport is organized by China's Chengdu Hatrans YHF Intermodal Logistics, and Lodz-based logistics firm Hatrans is the train operator in Poland.

"Twenty-three trains have so far traveled from China to Poland, transporting 1,886 TEUs," said Chen Zhongwei, director of the General Office of Chengdu Municipal Leading Group for Modern Logistics Development.

The one-way service, traveling 9,826 km in 12 days, is eight to 10 days faster than ordinary trains, but thus far has traveled back empty to China during the initial trial operation period.

The operation of the railway from Poland back to China is expected to help boost Sino-European trade, transporting products including European cars to China next month.
 
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