Chinese Economics Thread

Jiang ZeminFanboy

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April data:

Value-added industrial output up 6.7% yoy

Retail sales up 2.3% yoy

Real estate investment down 9.8% yoy

Public sector investment up 7.4% yoy

Private sector investment up 0.3% yoy

The weak retail sales data is related to declining property prices. The weak private sector investment data is related to the weak retail sales data. Perhaps the government's plan to purchase unsold homes and convert them into affordable housing will boost consumer spending.

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Retail sales up by just 2.3% certainly is a disappointing, not a good start for Q2, let's hope it can go back soon to a steady 5% yoy. It looks like more tools are used to revive property sector
 

Xiongmao

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Retail sales up by just 2.3% certainly is a disappointing, not a good start for Q2, let's hope it can go back soon to a steady 5% yoy. It looks like more tools are used to revive property sector
I am a bit confused. Up to a few weeks ago, I thought the policy was to allow the property bubble to deflate without much government intervention. Now I see news about a change in policy to try to revive the property bubble due to measures like lowering mortgage requirements. What is actually going on?
 

Quan8410

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I am a bit confused. Up to a few weeks ago, I thought the policy was to allow the property bubble to deflate without much government intervention. Now I see news about a change in policy to try to revive the property bubble due to measures like lowering mortgage requirements. What is actually going on?
Maybe because the citizens are moaning too much about "mUh iNvEStmEnt" and restless lending to property developer during the property boom already had too much bad debt hangover. Put another way, "too big to fail".
 

Eventine

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In a country with falling demographics, falling property prices are basically inevitable. There is no way to keep it from falling that isn’t a waste of national resources. At best, slowing down the fall makes sense, but it’s just going to be a revenue sink year after year to subsidize.

If you want long term improvements to real estate, you must fix demographics first. No other way about it.
 

Franklin

Captain
The ultra low mortgages and 15% down to buy houses is only for first and second time home buyers.
The central bank will provide 300 billion yuan for the purchase of already finished but unsold apartments.
Commercial banks will provide property developers 935 billion yuan to finish about 20 million pre-sold apartments.
In a country were 96% of people already owns a home and falling demographics this is a bad idea.

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tamsen_ikard

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The ultra low mortgages and 15% down to buy houses is only for first and second time home buyers.
The central bank will provide 300 billion yuan for the purchase of already finished but unsold apartments.
Commercial banks will provide property developers 935 billion yuan to finish about 20 million pre-sold apartments.
In a country were 96% of people already owns a home and falling demographics this is a bad idea.

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When u say 96% own a home, are you counting migrant workers who live in poor conditions and rented housing but probably own their home in the village?

China has plenty of people who are poor and live in very bad and cramped housing conditions in cities. As they get richer they will want to buy better apartments. Even Chinese middle-class probably live in small apartments who will want to upgrade to a better house.

Check US housing market to see how much growth is still left in Chinese housing market. Chinese people will probably not live in suburban single family houses, but that doesn't mean they do not desire better housing as China gets richer.
 
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