Chinese Economics Thread

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
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The article explained in one picture:


Gold-US-v-China.jpg

China will lose for sure. Do you know the arm strength required to chuck a bar of gold that size)
 

azn_cyniq

Junior Member
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April data:

Value-added industrial output up 6.7% yoy

Retail sales up 2.3% yoy

Real estate investment down 9.8% yoy

Public sector investment up 7.4% yoy

Private sector investment up 0.3% yoy

The weak retail sales data is related to declining property prices. The weak private sector investment data is related to the weak retail sales data. Perhaps the government's plan to purchase unsold homes and convert them into affordable housing will boost consumer spending.

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Wrought

Junior Member
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The weak retail sales data is related to declining property prices. The weak private sector investment data is related to the weak retail sales data. Perhaps the government's plan to purchase unsold homes and convert them into affordable housing will boost consumer spending.

I mean, it will almost certainly help in the long run but I wouldn't expect to see any major swings in consumer spending or savings rates. Cleaning up the property sector is a slow and messy process which will take years. It's already taken years.
 

Franklin

Captain
So that move could be subsidised flats for rent or sale in the end?
This program could cost up to 280 billion dollars over a 5 year period. If this number is true then this will not be enough to revive the housing market but might be able to put a floor on falling prices. Which is the goal. Still I'm against this as its nothing more than a bailout for the housing industry that needs to shrink. China can use this money much better elsewhere.
 

azn_cyniq

Junior Member
Registered Member
This program could cost up to 280 billion dollars over a 5 year period. If this number is true then this will not be enough to revive the housing market but might be able to put a floor on falling prices. Which is the goal. Still I'm against this as its nothing more than a bailout for the housing industry that needs to shrink. China can use this money much better elsewhere.
I agree, but what do you think that money should be used for instead? Perhaps that money could be used to bolster the pension system so that Chinese people don't have to worry about retirement as much. Perhaps that money could be used to bolster the stock market. At the end of the day, the CPC's job is to ensure that Chinese people feel financially secure.

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The CPC is in the process of reforming the Chinese stock market (filtering out fraudulent companies), so perhaps stocks will become the dominant asset class in China. On the other hand, this may push Chinese companies to excessively focus on short-term profits like American companies.

Spending 280 billion dollars may be worthwhile if the government can stop property prices from falling. Chinese consumers becoming confident in their wealth would boost retail sales, which would boost industrial output. GDP growth rates well above 5% should be possible if this happens.
 
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