Chinese Economics Thread

GiantPanda

Junior Member
Registered Member
Yes, the Chinese economy is absolutely bigger. But looking at a subset of metrics does not mean the Chinese economy is bigger by a factor of 2. Could it be x2 bigger? Maybe, but probably not - doesn't matter much anyways when population is larger by a factor of 4. China needs to keep growing at a consistent and moderately high rate in order to catch up to the development level of the US/Western Europe/Japan. Standards of living have improved drastically over past 3 decades, but there is still plenty of room for improvement. At the end of the day, what matters is the quality of live people living in China can enjoy, not by which metrics is China x times larger than the US. The end goal of continued economic development is being able to provide adequate resources, goods, and services for 1.4 billion people to enjoy a good life, not increasing some number on a piece of paper.

The numbers are not proof positive that China is twice the size of the US but they are absolutely proof that the Chinese economy is substantially larger.

This goes against two narratives that Western propaganda had been pushing:

1) China is somehow a smaller economy than the US because of nominal GDP accounting. No it is not, there is no way a country that makes and buys 30M cars and makes and uses 10 times more steel ends up having a smaller gross national product -- unless you are assigning high values to the proverbial aether not actual produce,

2) China has somehow has lost ground to the US economically in the past four years, again through nominal GDP accounting; again, this cannot be possible in the real world with Chinese electricity usage growing extremely rapidly -- many times the pace of the US. How do you possibly lose ground to the US when your electricity usage (the best indicator of economic activity) is growing exponentially versus the US?

IMG_1784.jpeg
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
The US economy is a giant "paper tiger". They have enough military budgets to outproduce China 3 times, but in reality, China outproduces them about 6 times in weapon procurement instead.

They have, "on paper" again the ability to create their giant version of BRI and overtake Chinese influence in the Global South "like yesterday" already, but once again, they lack the real economy for that (every such initiative ends in embarrassing failure precisely for this reason - and this is talking about G7 pooled, combined capabilities/resources).

Even they themselves admit that this is why they are outproduced by Russia, not to mention China. If a war started, China would outproduce them on a level of tens of times more arms procurement.



So in terms of economic power in a way that it was measured in the entire human history, the US is already far behind China.

But if we look at the individual quality and satisfaction of living among citizens, then China also overtook the US in that area too, judging by data:


Edelman put 40% of the trust in the government for the US in 2023 overall, and China still 90%.

"My family and I will be better off in five years" - 65% in China, vs 36% in the US. So far this data was from Edelman 2023.

"Is my country headed in the right direction" - Around 90% China, 45% US, IPSOS 2019.

"Does my government work for everyone's benefit" - China around 80%, the US around 20%. Pew Asian Barometer 2020.

"How much do you trust your media" - China around 90%, US around 25%, Edelman/Gallup 2022.

The Global Happiness 2023 survey from Ipsos shows that China is the happiest country in the world at 91%.

A 2019 UC San Diego study shows a high level of satisfaction among the Chinese across a range of aspects up to 95%.

Latana’s Democracy Perception Index 2022 shows that 83% of Chinese believe their country is democratic.

Edelman puts the US in the 6 most polarized countries in the world in their study with people doubtful that "divisions can be overcome".

Gallup 2015, "willingness to fight for your country" - 71% China, 44% America, but really probably worsened for the US in major ways since then.



The US has the double suicide rate of China, the highest anti-depressant use in the world, way higher homicide rates, incarnation rates, more homeless, drug addicts, police brutality, mass riots and lootings, etc. Easily verifiable.

Compare that to China now which has almost 0 anti-depressant use, has the lowest violent crime rate, the lowest incarceration rate, and the lowest recidivism rate in the world, and is typically enforced by unarmed cops (but such enforcements in public are very rare, unlike the US which is so weaponized that you have heavily armed cops on every corner, and it still doesn't help).

China has clean streets, people can safely walk at night, fewer robberies, fewer tensions, divisions, and polarization, they have nearly complete homeownership rate unlike the US, and higher lifespans, healthspans, and literacy rates.



The poll also finds that nearly half of young Americans (48%) have felt unsafe in the past month, with 40% worried about falling victim to gun violence. Trust in the Supreme Court to “do the right thing” has fallen by ten percentage points over the last decade, while less than half of young Americans feel like their local police department makes them safer. Nearly half (47%) of Americans under the age of 30 report “feeling down, depressed, or hopeless,” and 24% have considered self-harm at least several days in the last two weeks.

Just 4% of U.S. adults say the political system is working extremely or very well; another 23% say it is working somewhat well. About six-in-ten (63%) express not too much or no confidence at all in the future of the U.S. political system.

Positive views of many governmental and political institutions are at historic lows. Just 16% of the public say they trust the federal government always or most of the time.
While trust has hovered near historic lows for the better part of the last 20 years, today it stands among the lowest levels dating back nearly seven decades. And more Americans have an unfavorable than favorable opinion of the Supreme Court – the first time that has occurred in polling going back to the late 1980s.


Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!




So both areas of economic targeting that every government of the world tries to hit, the US failed. Both individual economic satisfaction, and comprehensive national power.

Monetary standards of living in itself are useless if it doesn't translate into citizen satisfaction/happiness. In this way, the US is hundreds of times closer to civil war than China despite higher nominal standards of living.

But like I said many times, monetary nominal value doesn't even tell the entire story even within individual standards of living as well. Prices and cost of living are the second part.

China has nearly free healthcare, education, transportation, various utilities, and other parts of infrastructure. Way cheaper manufactured products, way better distribution of wealth, etc.

For example, I don't doubt that the Chinese middle class is already wealthier than the US middle class, not just more numerous. That is because most of US paper wealth goes to oligarchs and upper-class asset holders.

For example, half of us US population has a net worth of less than 15k. US citizens have the highest debt rates in the world, while Chinese have the highest savings in the world.

The top 10% of the US hold 66.6% of all wealth in the US, and the bottom 50% hold around 2.6% of total wealth in the US. So, average people get distributed less of the total US GDP number than in China.

And this is 500 years of colonialism and the wealth accumulation advances it brought to the West in general, so imagine how far ahead of the US China will be when it urbanizes the rest of its rural population (they lag the current Chinese data the most), but the US won't exist by then.
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
The 21st century economy will be heavily dependent upon technology. Whoever wins the technological race wins economical race.


China already won that exact race permanently if we look at it against the US alone, both from the current situation and overall trend. I'm looking objectively at the STEM number of graduates each year, high-quality patent grants, high-tech exports, prestigious, high-quality research published papers and citations in both fundamental science and emerging technologies, the number of universities in the top places, and their research outputs (but there is an also a clear trend of way better results of Chinese students even before they reach the tertiary education, so it can't be "fake", it's perfectly logical).

But If we look at the entire American Empire (Collective West), then they can still put up a fight against China. Only with absolute control over the entire empire does the US stand a chance against China. After all, China started rising this fast literally just a few decades ago in sci-tech.

To illustrate this more, for example, only 6% of the US majors are engineering, and more students graduate in journalism there. But STEM is 40% in China. That is even without mentioning the total population sizes and total available STEM pool. R&D spending is useless without qualified people + a real economy/manufacturing base to follow that research, or it will forever remain theoretical ( For example,11% of the US GDP is manufacturing, and that's 28% in China).

However, you assume only attack, but defense is also a part of the problem. The US has really poor inner defense/stability. Sociologically looking, they are a few years away from collapse and civil war, and no amount of technology will help them defend against that. That's like some billionaire who is about to die a few years later looking at his current net worth and bragging while totally ignoring his health and vitality status.

I'm talking about political, financial, racial, ethnic, and ideological divisions on historic levels about to burst at any time. Whereas China has the opposite, despite its enormous size, I think that it is the most stable, unified, harmonious, orderly, country in the whole world. This is like chess. China may be invested less in outward metrics like the US (global military/finance hegemony), but they have near impeccable defense, unlike the US which is rotten to the core now.
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member




I just talked about the middle class in China and this is a big deal for businesses in China as well. Imagine, they've got this huge group of people who have money to spend. That's why everyone's so keen on investing there.

This is another advantage for Chinese domestic producers in new industries who have secured domination there to get more capital to expand globally later easier too, but even more than that.

It's like, in China, money isn't just stuck with a few rich folks. It's more spread out compared to the US. So, there's a bigger crowd with cash ready to buy stuff.

Here's the thing about rich and upper-class people - they don't buy as much stuff as you'd think. Because of this thing called 'diminishing marginal utility', they get less and less excited about buying more stuff. So, their buying power isn't as impactful as you might expect.

Think of it this way: one rich person won't buy as many things as five middle-class people. It's all about how each purchase means more to someone with less money.

So, when you've got a bunch of middle-class people, each one of them is likely to buy more stuff than one rich person, making them super important for the market.

So yeah, the gist is that China's market is pretty hot right now because of this thriving middle class who are ready and able to spend, unlike the situation in the US where the wealth is more top-heavy.

Consequently, China is rapidly gaining significance not only as a major export hub but also as an increasingly vital import destination for international businesses all around the world. This shift underscores the country's growing influence and how hard it is to decouple from it.




 
Last edited:

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Global investment banks and asset managers have expressed cautious optimism that China's A-share market is poised for a rebound this year, after underperforming major global peers in 2023.

Attractive valuations, improving corporate earnings amid stepped-up policy support and the potential for subdued investor sentiment to recover have all suggested room for a rally, they said.


Following the benchmark CSI 300 Index declining for three consecutive years and losing 11.38 percent in 2023, Goldman Sachs now projects a 19 percent price return for the index this year, staying overweight on A shares and positive on sectors like retail, media, entertainment and tech hardware.

The United States investment bank said in a report that the anticipated gains hinge on projections that Chinese listed companies could see profit growth of approximately 8 to 10 percent in 2024, a critical factor for valuations to reach a bottom.

Recent market corrections have sent the price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index, a key gauge of valuation, to the lowest level since the end of 2018 at 10.5, compared with the 10-year average of 12.51, according to market tracker Wind Info.

"We think the worst is over and we have started to turn optimistic," said Meng Lei, China equity strategist at UBS Securities, adding that the A-share market might have been mispriced amid investor pessimism.

Corporate earnings seem to have bottomed out and picked up since the third quarter of 2023, Meng said. This trend is likely to be sustained this year as nominal GDP growth speeds up amid recovering inflation and potential policy support, including further cuts in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, an expanded fiscal deficit and more property sector easing.


Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!



Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


In recent years, the city has pioneered in key technology, infrastructure and application related to the digital sector. "For example, Beijing built 30,000 5G bases last year. It has about half of the country's generative artificial intelligence large model products available for the public. It has a 160-square-kilometer high-level demonstration zone for automatic driving," Yin said while delivering a government work report during the opening ceremony of the session.

In 2023, the city's GDP reached 4.4 trillion yuan ($61.16 billion), up 5.2 percent year-on-year, while the digital economy contributed 42.9 percent to its GDP, compared with 41.6 percent in 2022. Beijing has set a GDP growth target of 5 percent for this year, according to the government work report.

In 2024, the city will further improve underlying technology of AI and make its AI models as advanced as international ones, promoting its application in government administration, the medical field, industries and life services, according to the work report.

Automatic driving will be applied in more scenarios such as airports, railway stations and urban road cleaning. The city is developing more emerging digital infrastructure such as 10-gigawatt optical network and internet of vehicles to serve the construction of a smart city, the report added.

In September 2020, Beijing started building a high-level automatic driving demonstration zone, and has since tested multiple commercial applications such as automatic trucks and those running on highways.

More than 800 vehicles from 28 companies have been tested at the automatic driving demonstration zone with an overall distance of over 20 million km. The zone has already used unmanned vehicles in passenger transport, logistics, cleaning and express delivery, serving 2 million people.

Kong Lei, director of the administrative committee of the Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area, said the zone will expand another 440 sq km to Tongzhou and Shunyi districts. In the future, passengers will also be able to take unmanned vehicles from the area to Beijing Daxing International Airport.



Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!





China's inflation projection by the IMF; will return to a baseline of around 2% from this year onward up to 2028:


1705946194698.png
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member




I just talked about the middle class in China and this is a big deal for businesses in China as well. Imagine, they've got this huge group of people who have money to spend. That's why everyone's so keen on investing there.

This is another advantage for Chinese domestic producers in new industries who have secured domination there to get more capital to expand globally later easier too, but even more than that.

It's like, in China, money isn't just stuck with a few rich folks. It's more spread out compared to the US. So, there's a bigger crowd with cash ready to buy stuff.

Here's the thing about rich and upper-class people - they don't buy as much stuff as you'd think. Because of this thing called 'diminishing marginal utility', they get less and less excited about buying more stuff. So, their buying power isn't as impactful as you might expect.

Think of it this way: one rich person won't buy as many things as five middle-class people. It's all about how each purchase means more to someone with less money.

So, when you've got a bunch of middle-class people, each one of them is likely to buy more stuff than one rich person, making them super important for the market.

So yeah, the gist is that China's market is pretty hot right now because of this thriving middle class who are ready and able to spend, unlike the situation in the US where the wealth is more top-heavy.

Consequently, China is rapidly gaining significance not only as a major export hub but also as an increasingly vital import destination for international businesses all around the world. This shift underscores the country's growing influence and how hard it is to decouple from it.




It depends. 1 rich guy will buy a luxury car worth more than 5 middle class car. But the country making 5 middle class car is stronger than country makimg 1 luxury car.
 
Last edited:

SlothmanAllen

Junior Member
Registered Member
Just a little aside. I think the US automotive sales market is actually still slightly bigger than in China. China sells more new vehicles, but when you add in used vehicle sales the US auto market is slightly larger. For example, there were a combined 49.31 million vehicles sold in China while there were a combined 51.4 million vehicles sold in the US for 2023.

This won't last for long though, and I expect that in 2024 the total number of vehicles (new & used) will exceed that of those sold in the US based on growth rates.

I wanted to point this out because just looking at new vehicle sales hides how massive the US used vehicle market is. Estimates put the 2023 used vehicle market sales in the US at 35.9 million. To put that in perspective, that puts used vehicle sales in the US ahead of new vehicle sales in China (30.09 million) for 2023.

Also, this isn't meant as a US is better then China post, but just to put some perspective on the size of the auto markets in each country. With 1.2 billion plus people, eventually Chinese automotive sales will far eclipse those of the US. I think these numbers highlight how much growth potential there could still be.
 

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
China already won that exact race permanently if we look at it against the US alone, both from the current situation and overall trend. I'm looking objectively at the STEM number of graduates each year, high-quality patent grants, high-tech exports, prestigious, high-quality research published papers and citations in both fundamental science and emerging technologies, the number of universities in the top places, and their research outputs (but there is an also a clear trend of way better results of Chinese students even before they reach the tertiary education, so it can't be "fake", it's perfectly logical).

But If we look at the entire American Empire (Collective West), then they can still put up a fight against China. Only with absolute control over the entire empire does the US stand a chance against China. After all, China started rising this fast literally just a few decades ago in sci-tech.

To illustrate this more, for example, only 6% of the US majors are engineering, and more students graduate in journalism there. But STEM is 40% in China. That is even without mentioning the total population sizes and total available STEM pool. R&D spending is useless without qualified people + a real economy/manufacturing base to follow that research, or it will forever remain theoretical ( For example,11% of the US GDP is manufacturing, and that's 28% in China).

However, you assume only attack, but defense is also a part of the problem. The US has really poor inner defense/stability. Sociologically looking, they are a few years away from collapse and civil war, and no amount of technology will help them defend against that. That's like some billionaire who is about to die a few years later looking at his current net worth and bragging while totally ignoring his health and vitality status.

I'm talking about political, financial, racial, ethnic, and ideological divisions on historic levels about to burst at any time. Whereas China has the opposite, despite its enormous size, I think that it is the most stable, unified, harmonious, orderly, country in the whole world. This is like chess. China may be invested less in outward metrics like the US (global military/finance hegemony), but they have near impeccable defense, unlike the US which is rotten to the core now.
So you aren't going to count Western OnlyFans output?
 

gadgetcool5

Senior Member
Registered Member
China can definitely beat the US in a 1 on 1 on all metrics due to its larger population. Hence why the US ropes in the 5 Eyes, the EU, NATO, and the Quad. But China can also rope in Pakistan, Russia, Iran, ASEAN, the Middle East and Africa. The only difference is China doesn't have formal allies & doesn't put nearly as many if any troops in foreign territory.
 
Top