Yes, absolutely agree, they don't.
Even some of our more loyal China watchers do not appreciate what is coming next.
The only thing that can have a chance to derail all of this is a major war, but that cuts in ways that no one can really foresee.
That is why I never understood the trade war or tech war.
Sure that was a move on the chessboard, but what for?
The trade war was kind of predictable in its outcome, where not much changes. China is still the world's largest trading nation, China is growing faster than anyone else. If the Americans want less direct trade between China and America, whoopee-doo!
The tech war, cannot be fought like the Cold War of the West and NATO versus the USSR and Eastern Europe. The globalized world puts constraints on this tech war, by definition.
The Americans seem to do not understand what a globalized world means, which is deeply ironic because they spent generations trying to build this world.
The globalized world, means freedom of trade, of capital, and of people moving about. Ethnic Chinese engineers returning to mainland China to work in the semi-conductor industry because it pays, along with Koreans and Japanese, that is just pure globalization in action in our world today. And the Americans resent that. They resent the world they built.
There is this deep dark black hole for me to understand this tech war. The ways to sidestep, and the countermoves, will be so devastating, that it is not prudent to start this tech war. Yet, they did. I will never understand that.