I don't think people really understand the technical, scientific and industrial tsunami from China that is going to hit the market in the coming years. The domance in EVs, Solar, batteries, HSR, etc are just the tip of the iceberg.
Yes, it is pretty rosy
Yes, absolutely agree, they don't.
Even some of our more loyal China watchers do not appreciate what is coming next.
The only thing that can have a chance to derail all of this is a major war, but that cuts in ways that no one can really foresee.
That is why I never understood the trade war or tech war.
Sure that was a move on the chessboard, but what for?
The trade war was kind of predictable in its outcome, where not much changes. China is still the world's largest trading nation, China is growing faster than anyone else. If the Americans want less direct trade between China and America, whoopee-doo!
The tech war, cannot be fought like the Cold War of the West and NATO versus the USSR and Eastern Europe. The globalized world puts constraints on this tech war, by definition.
The Americans seem to do not understand what a globalized world means, which is deeply ironic because they spent generations trying to build this world.
The globalized world, means freedom of trade, of capital, and of people moving about. Ethnic Chinese engineers returning to mainland China to work in the semi-conductor industry because it pays, along with Koreans and Japanese, that is just pure globalization in action in our world today. And the Americans resent that. They resent the world they built.
There is this deep dark black hole for me to understand this tech war. The ways to sidestep, and the countermoves, will be so devastating, that it is not prudent to start this tech war. Yet, they did. I will never understand that.
Yes, absolutely agree, they don't.
Even some of our more loyal China watchers do not appreciate what is coming next.
The only thing that can have a chance to derail all of this is a major war, but that cuts in ways that no one can really foresee.
That is why I never understood the trade war or tech war.
Sure that was a move on the chessboard, but what for?
The trade war was kind of predictable in its outcome, where not much changes. China is still the world's largest trading nation, China is growing faster than anyone else. If the Americans want less direct trade between China and America, whoopee-doo!
The tech war, cannot be fought like the Cold War of the West and NATO versus the USSR and Eastern Europe. The globalized world puts constraints on this tech war, by definition.
The Americans seem to do not understand what a globalized world means, which is deeply ironic because they spent generations trying to build this world.
The globalized world, means freedom of trade, of capital, and of people moving about. Ethnic Chinese engineers returning to mainland China to work in the semi-conductor industry because it pays, along with Koreans and Japanese, that is just pure globalization in action in our world today. And the Americans resent that. They resent the world they built.
There is this deep dark black hole for me to understand this tech war. The ways to sidestep, and the countermoves, will be so devastating, that it is not prudent to start this tech war. Yet, they did. I will never understand that.
"... growth in 2023 was below expectations of ... ... the central government itself."
One reason the capital class tries to take their money out of China is that it simply isn't disproportionately nice to be rich in China.
This is a lie that is perpetuated by Western news on the topic. The Japanese have basically a complete semi tools sector for DUV. At best you could say they lack modern EDA tools but that's just software. And the Japanese have all the basic components to make an EUV machine. They just lack the orders to work on EUV because the Japanese semi sector doesn't even use it. Rapidus is supposed to change this but there just isn't enough demand there to justify building tools just for that site.
It could have been written yesterday and still be true .. but ... almost 30 years have passed since then I have already learned from this forum that the stock market is not important for most Chinese ppl. But still, with the mentioned wage increases during the last 30 years and also GDP increase (as you provided this nice chart) it's simply extraordinary. For instance real estates prices have dropped but are they now on 1997 price levels? Only Japan 1990 reminds a little of this but then the yen appreciated a lot and wages didn't increase. As a foreigner i cannot invest a lot even if it's that cheap due to the West-stealing-Russian-assets-precedent. But I don't understand why locals don't invest and I mean the middle class, not some ultra rich who cannot spent their money. And I don't buy that they were investing only in some new cool high tech companies which are not traded anywhere and hence - cannot be seen.