Chinese Economics Thread

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
Again 5+ percent growth this year ..

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China’s economy is likely to expand by around 5.3 percent in 2024 as employment improves, people become more willing to spend and thanks to a proactive fiscal policy, CCTV News reported, citing a report issued by the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Center for Forecasting Science.

China’s GDP growth for the first quarter will be about 5 percent, the CAS report said, which was released yesterday. This should then expand to around 5.3 percent, 5.5 percent and 5.4 percent growth for the remaining three quarters, respectively.

The country will experience restorative growth from the real economy to the services sector, said Hong Yongmiao, director of CAS’ Center for Forecasting Science. The services sector should see the fastest expansion. While the manufacturing sector as well as green and emerging sectors such as new materials and new energies will also experience rapid growth.

growth will mostly come from High tech sector+consumption+service sector ..
Would this be a lot higher if not for devalue due to USD exchange rate?
 

supercat

Major

4Runner

Junior Member
Registered Member
The Chinese economy developed because of decentralization and innovation.
......
I think Jin Keyu was describing a symptom from a western angle on "decentralization and innovation". BTW, she is the daughter of Jin Liqun, founder and president of AIIB. "decentralization" is never a governing theme by design in any Chinese governments (including dynasties). It is a natural state of political affairs in a mega-sized middle kingdom during peace times. "innovation" is a result of state capitalism with Chinese characteristics. IIHO, part of the reasons is the CCP cadre evaluation system (组织部人事考察任免制度). When some foreigners talk about meritocracy in Chinese governance, they are really pointing to that CCP system. As a result, CCP cadres at all levels must work with crazy innovation for tangible results, if they want to climb the ladder inside the system. But AFAIK, "decentralization and innovation" were not among key considerations when CCP designed and enacted that system.
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
I stopped watching cnbc ages ago but are they usually this downbeat on china economy?


This I watched before, and it really pissed me off.

Did not post it here, as I would have gone off on a tirade.

:cool:

Alright, I won't use any expletives.

Here is the thing about this video.

There is a thing call freaking fiduciary duty, in that industry.

And there he is, spreading a freaking FUD campaign about China, because he is an Indian.

If there is doubt, provide evidence, and not ask insinuating questions.

Instead of presenting facts to the clients in the audience, ie fiduciary duty, that Indian did the FUD thing.

Dishonest.

:mad:
 

test1979

Junior Member
Registered Member
Interesting results, after decoupling from the US, due to weakness in world exports,
China's share of goods exports is likely to continue to rise in 2023.
According to China's data for January 2024, the export of goods in 2023 was denominated in US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%.
According to Global trade data in December 2023, Trade in goods is expected to contract by nearly $2 trillion in 2023, or 8%.
This means that as global exports of goods shrink, China’s share of exports continues to rise.
Of course, the Western media seems to have only noticed the decline in China's exports. . .
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%2Ddigit,13%25%20from%20the%20previous%20year.
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donjasjit

New Member
Registered Member
Interesting results, after decoupling from the US, due to weakness in world exports,
China's share of goods exports is likely to continue to rise in 2023.
According to China's data for January 2024, the export of goods in 2023 was denominated in US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%.
According to Global trade data in December 2023, Trade in goods is expected to contract by nearly $2 trillion in 2023, or 8%.
This means that as global exports of goods shrink, China’s share of exports continues to rise.
Of course, the Western media seems to have only noticed the decline in China's exports. . .
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%2Ddigit,13%25%20from%20the%20previous%20year.
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This post is exactly why I visit this forum, to learn the truth rather than propaganda pieces from either side.

If the "Global Trade Data" which you used is reliable, then this figure is very interesting. It shows that any country trying to replace China in the trade chains will have a very tough time.

And this is despite all the talk of friend-shoring and reduced trade between China and US.

Let's face it, companies will relocate only if they can find comparative advantages in labor, energy, research and logistics in another country. They won't relocate and condemn their business simply because Riamondo wants companies to friend-shore. If Biden forces it then these companies will be at a cost disadvantage compared to Chinese companies and will lose in the global market.
 

GiantPanda

Junior Member
Registered Member
Interesting results, after decoupling from the US, due to weakness in world exports,
China's share of goods exports is likely to continue to rise in 2023.
According to China's data for January 2024, the export of goods in 2023 was denominated in US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%.
According to Global trade data in December 2023, Trade in goods is expected to contract by nearly $2 trillion in 2023, or 8%.
This means that as global exports of goods shrink, China’s share of exports continues to rise.
Of course, the Western media seems to have only noticed the decline in China's exports. . .
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%2Ddigit,13%25%20from%20the%20previous%20year.
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Exports only declined in USD terms. It actually rose in volume against a backdrop where all the main global trading nations from Taiwan to Germany had drops.
 
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