Chinese Economics Thread

SanWenYu

Captain
Registered Member
I think real estate will eventually recover. China is still much less urbanized than advanced economies. Like 60% instead of 80%.
But the sector was overheating too much and construction companies were loaded with debt. So the government had to cut it down a notch.

I expect construction of high speed rail and metros to cool down during this decade. But there is still going to be a huge demand for construction of infrastructure, except this might be in clean energy generation, like nuclear power plants or building hydropower plants in the rivers downstream from the Himalayas. Also in pumped storage facilities.

Eventually we might see construction of higher speed maglev lines in the most congested transportation routes like Beijing-Shanghai.

At the same time Chinese industry will continue to move upwards in the industrial production chain by producing and exporting high tech products like aircraft, cars, and semiconductors. I also expect China to become a major weapons exporter.
Construction will still be one of the major economic driving forces for China in the coming years. In addition to what you have said, China still needs a lot of public facilities like community centers, care homes, libraries, sport complex, recreational parks, etc. So this will be another focus of new constructions.

Then there are a lot of old residential and commerical buildings to upgrade for higher energy efficiency. Most of those built in the 90s and 00s were not designed with accessibilities and car ownerships in mind, too. From what I have heard, ongoing maintenance and upgrade of existing buildings has not got the required attention.
 

Petrolicious88

Senior Member
Registered Member
they are counting outflow. LOL but its okay

now its opposite. China doesn't need FDI anymore. whatever comes is just a bonus.

China's outbound direct investment is on rise Chinese firms are now investing money in other countries. because foreign/Domestic industries are now well established in mainland , supply chain is well intact. due to stiff competition many firms are dying in mainland. Koreans/Japanese firms losing market share. thanks to Rise of Chinese local firms in manufacturing. Chinese firms start gaining share from west/Japanese/Koreans firms in Global south.

China's outward direct investment maintains growth momentum, overseas M&A in Latin America and Oceania surges. China overall ODI was US$75.4 billion in H1 2023, up 9.6% YOY.

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Official statement from Ministry about FDI in China

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Chinese mainland in actual use stood at 919.97 billion yuan (about $128 billion) in the first nine months of the year, the Ministry of Commerce said Friday.

The figure decreased 8.4 percent from a year earlier.

During the period, 37,814 new foreign-invested firms were set up across the country, up 32.4 percent year on year.

FDI in service sector decline 12.8 percent year on year.

FDI in manufacturing rose 2.4 percent year on year, with that in high-tech manufacturing up 12.8 percent.

During the period, FDI from France, the United Kingdom, Canada , Germany and Japan surged by 121.7 percent, 116.9 percent, 109.2 percent, 53 percent and 14.2 percent year-on-year respectively, data from the ministry shows..
China doesn’t need FDI anymore?! Says who?
 

SanWenYu

Captain
Registered Member
China doesn’t need FDI anymore?! Says who?
The emphasis is on *need*. China still welcomes FDI for the money.

FDI from the west used to bring in new technologies and ideas to China. But as the west tightening up technology exports to China, also because of the output of China's own R&D, FDI from them matters less and less to China in advancing in science and technology.

Would you say that the US, Germany and Japan *need* FDI for their progress in science and technology?

But who would refuse money that creates jobs? So you won't hear it officially from the Chinese governments but indeed that China does not *need* FDI as much as it used to be.
 

supercat

Major
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donjasjit

New Member
Registered Member
Reposting nobodies from Twitter is a waste of everyone's time, even if only to debunk them.
This “nobody” as you call him writes the best articles on Chinese economic situation that you can find on the internet. Unlike other western writers, his articles are based on hard facts and figures. He is a lone voice of reason against the “China is collapsing” crowd of article writers.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Interesting take by DPG.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Reposting nobodies from Twitter is a waste of everyone's time, even if only to debunk them.

There are some people's opinions on Twitter which are more worthwhile, and I think David P Goldman, while not being someone who I agree with everything on, is not unreasonable in some of his takes of the Chinese economic reorganization.

Glenn Luk on Twitter is someone else whose deep dive threads on the Chinese economy are quite decent (and has also written about the Chinese economic reorganization).



... that said, I also think if we are posting something from Twitter, take efforts to please expand and justify and explain it (especially if one feels it is useful/worth considering) rather than just copying the link with a "look at this"-esque comment.

Don't be afraid to take fifteen minutes to write up a couple of paragraphs rather than just copying a link, and if one doesn't have the time or effort to write up some explanations, then perhaps not posting it is the better choice.
 

Petrolicious88

Senior Member
Registered Member
The emphasis is on *need*. China still welcomes FDI for the money.

FDI from the west used to bring in new technologies and ideas to China. But as the west tightening up technology exports to China, also because of the output of China's own R&D, FDI from them matters less and less to China in advancing in science and technology.

Would you say that the US, Germany and Japan *need* FDI for their progress in science and technology?

But who would refuse money that creates jobs? So you won't hear it officially from the Chinese governments but indeed that China does not *need* FDI as much as it used to be.
Not sure if I can agree. US and all other top tier economies definitely need FDI as a key source of tech innovation. You want foreign companies to spend and steadily increase their R&D in your country rather than spend it elsewhere.
 
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