Chinese Economics Thread

[ansy1968]

High speed rail is good for convinent and fast movement of people. But for goods transport its not that important.

Correct, What it offer is to decongest major cities, develop 2nd and 3th tier cities, spread the wealth and increase the quality of life. Here in Manila we spend 4 hours daily commuting between home and work, those hours wasted should be use in productive means , some social life and family time. The only positive result of the Pandemic is work at home, it had become a trend and maybe a fixture in the future as it provide a cheaper alternative instead of waiting for the costly rail and other necessary infrastructure to be completed in solving our messy traffic situation.

If the The North-South railway project (NSRP) is finished, it will alleviate the slum and other problem in Metro Manila. And politically it will transfer some of the power to the near by province, making it more democratic instead of concentrating in the hands of a few oligarch living in Imperial Manila. As those voters will be returning and living in their own province affecting the electoral demographics, challenging the old Traditional politics with a new one.

 

[luminary]

Based on Spring Festival data from 2019 to 2023 on Baidu Migration Big Data,

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analyses the spatiotemporal patterns and structural characteristics of population mobility in cities across China through spatiotemporal statistics and social network analysis and investigates the evolution patterns of Chinese population migration behavior under the influence of COVID-19 epidemic during Spring Festival. The results of the study show that: (1) There are significant temporal and spatial differences in the impact of COVID-19 on population migration, with much stronger shocks on the cities of middle migration scale; (2) Population migration in Chinese cities is robust, and the impact of COVID-19 on population movement and community evolution is mainly manifested in short-term effects, with essentially no residual effects; (3) Between 2020 and 2023, a total of 119 cities experience a transfer of communities (32.25%), of which 69 cities transfer once, 20 cities transfer twice, and 30 cities transfer three times. In addition, it is found that the closeness of urban links based on population movements remains subject to geospatial effects, and the boundaries of “communities” coincide very closely with provincial borders.

 

[Lethe]

The IMF has released the

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of its World Economic Outlook publication, which extends the horizon of its economic projections to 2028.

In 2028, the IMF projects China's GDP to be $27.49tn against USA projected GDP of $32.35tn. That is to say, the projection is for China's GDP in 2028 to be 85% of USA's GDP, up from 71% in 2022.

This is a significant downgrade from the October 2022 projection (93% in 2027), which was in turn a slight downgrade from the April 2022 projection (94% in 2027).

The IMF has released the

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of its World Economic Outlook publication, which extends the horizon of its economic projections to 2028.

At current exchange rates, the IMF projects China's GDP in 2028 to be USD $23.61tn compared to USA's projected GDP of $32.69tn. That is to say, the projection is for China's GDP in 2028 to be 72.2% of USA's GDP, up from 70.2% in 2022.

This is a significant downgrade from the April 2023 projection (85% in 2028) which in turn was a significant downgrade from the October 2022 projection (93% in 2027).

EDIT: In PPP terms, the IMF projects China's GDP in 2028 to be $43.9tn or 134.3% of USA's projected GDP, up from 118.7% in 2022.

 

[56860]

The IMF has released the

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of its World Economic Outlook publication, which extends the horizon of its economic projections to 2028.

At current exchange rates, the IMF projects China's GDP in 2028 to be USD $23.61tn compared to USA's projected GDP of $32.69tn. That is to say, the projection is for China's GDP in 2028 to be 72.2% of USA's GDP, up from 70.2% in 2022.

This is a significant downgrade from the April 2023 projection (85% in 2028) which in turn was a significant downgrade from the October 2022 projection (93% in 2027).

So US economy in 2028 will still be smaller than the Chinese economy today (33 trillion).

 

[Gogurt4ever]

The IMF has released the

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of its World Economic Outlook publication, which extends the horizon of its economic projections to 2028.

At current exchange rates, the IMF projects China's GDP in 2028 to be USD $23.61tn compared to USA's projected GDP of $32.69tn. That is to say, the projection is for China's GDP in 2028 to be 72.2% of USA's GDP, up from 70.2% in 2022.

This is a significant downgrade from the April 2023 projection (85% in 2028) which in turn was a significant downgrade from the October 2022 projection (93% in 2027).

EDIT: In PPP terms, the IMF projects China's GDP in 2028 to be $43.9tn or 134.3% of USA's projected GDP, up from 118.7% in 2022.

"current exchange rates" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. This basically assumes a bit under 5% annual GDP growth for the US between 2019 and 2028, which only makes sense with simultaneous US inflation (increasing the nominal GDP) and a strong dollar despite this.

All credible estimates maintain that China's real GDP (adjusted for inflation), and its PPP-adjusted GDP will outgrow that of the US by a large margin in the next five years -- at about a 2.5-4 percentage point difference in growth rates.

 

[Arij Javaid]

"current exchange rates" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. This basically assumes a bit under 5% annual GDP growth for the US between 2019 and 2028, which only makes sense with simultaneous US inflation (increasing the nominal GDP) and a strong dollar despite this.

All credible estimates maintain that China's real GDP (adjusted for inflation), and its PPP-adjusted GDP will outgrow that of the US by a large margin in the next five years -- at about a 2.5-4 percentage point difference in growth rates.

But can yuan appreciation be a thing where renminbi appreciates against the dollar to close the parity??

 

[Minm]

The IMF has released the

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of its World Economic Outlook publication, which extends the horizon of its economic projections to 2028.

At current exchange rates, the IMF projects China's GDP in 2028 to be USD $23.61tn compared to USA's projected GDP of $32.69tn. That is to say, the projection is for China's GDP in 2028 to be 72.2% of USA's GDP, up from 70.2% in 2022.

This is a significant downgrade from the April 2023 projection (85% in 2028) which in turn was a significant downgrade from the October 2022 projection (93% in 2027).

EDIT: In PPP terms, the IMF projects China's GDP in 2028 to be $43.9tn or 134.3% of USA's projected GDP, up from 118.7% in 2022.

You should look at the estimates in national currencies, not in USD. You can't guess the future exchange rate.

In the current report, China's GDP in 2028 is estimated at 167 trillion RMB, at an exchange rate of 7.08

In the April estimate, China's 2028 GDP is estimated at 169 trillion RMB, at an exchange rate of 6.16

So the only real difference is that the IMF now projects the USD to remain overvalued

The RMB needs to strengthen to about 5.1 to overtake US GDP in 2028. But that would be bad for exports. So why would should China damage its own economy, just to claim the title of largest economy in the world?

I'm not sure if the USD can remain this expensive in the long term anyway. It's quite damaging for the US trade balance and they might see a recession soon. So the exchange rate is probably going to come down next year

 

[coolgod]

You should look at the estimates in national currencies, not in USD. You can't guess the future exchange rate.

In the current report, China's GDP in 2028 is estimated at 167 trillion RMB, at an exchange rate of 7.08

In the April estimate, China's 2028 GDP is estimated at 169 trillion RMB, at an exchange rate of 6.16

So the only real difference is that the IMF now projects the USD to remain overvalued

The RMB needs to strengthen to about 5.1 to overtake US GDP in 2028. But that would be bad for exports. So why would should China damage its own economy, just to claim the title of largest economy in the world?

I'm not sure if the USD can remain this expensive in the long term anyway. It's quite damaging for the US trade balance and they might see a recession soon. So the exchange rate is probably going to come down next year

The IMF report is even funnier when you realize that IMF and the US is literally begging China for a bailout at the time of this release.

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Yellen heads to Morocco IMF-World Bank meetings in shadow of US political chaos​

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

The IMF has released the

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

of its World Economic Outlook publication, which extends the horizon of its economic projections to 2028.

At current exchange rates, the IMF projects China's GDP in 2028 to be USD $23.61tn compared to USA's projected GDP of $32.69tn. That is to say, the projection is for China's GDP in 2028 to be 72.2% of USA's GDP, up from 70.2% in 2022.

This is a significant downgrade from the April 2023 projection (85% in 2028) which in turn was a significant downgrade from the October 2022 projection (93% in 2027).

EDIT: In PPP terms, the IMF projects China's GDP in 2028 to be $43.9tn or 134.3% of USA's projected GDP, up from 118.7% in 2022.

I like how their multi-year predictions change every few months. Very credible.

 

[CMP]

Increased IMF funding quotas without a change in shareholder structure sounds like a scam