Chinese Economics Thread

coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
Has anyone considered the possibility that China is suppressing the RMB not to help exports but to increase off shore RMB liquidity? If the RMB was strong and in high demand, how do you expect all those countries who have started trading with RMB to obtain the RMB necessary? Somebody needs to dump excess RMB on the market to make it easy for third parties to trading using the RMB.

Second, what about all those countries who have signed swap lines with China and have actually activated them think Argentina and Turkey, etc., they have to pay back in RMB, you think they can afford to pay back a strong RMB with interest?
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
You can be a consumption-based economy while manufacturing everything. US and EU outsource the manufacuring because of high labor cost. In the age of robots, 5g and every techonology else there, you have a lot of tools to achieve higher productivity withour worrying about labor cost. Becoming a consumption based economy is not the same as abandoning manufacturing. Majority of manufacturing will remain in China because of high-level infrastructure and complete supply chain. Chinese consume too little. They deserve more.If they consume more, demand for manufacturing will be even higher. China has like 1/5 world population and if we double or triple the demand of this population, we already gaining an additional 50% world market share or put another way, create 1 or 2 more China market. That's dual circulation.
what more is there to consume? China already consumes more electricity than entire G7, is the largest car market, home appliance market, retail market, e commerce market, restaurant market, etc.

so what more can be consumed without being a de facto tax increase such as licensing fees for things that used to be free?
 

Quan8410

Junior Member
Registered Member
what more is there to consume? China already consumes more electricity than entire G7, is the largest car market, home appliance market, retail market, e commerce market, restaurant market, etc.

so what more can be consumed without being a de facto tax increase such as licensing fees for things that used to be free?
For example, cars. Due to different conditions, we will not compare China with US but we can compare it to Japan. Both have excellent public transportation and high population density, both Japan and Eastern China has about 300-400 people per km2. Japan rank 19 in car ownership with 700 vehicles per 1000 people while China rank 94 with 226. You can say that Chinese people don't need cars thanks to excellent public transport but so is Japan. If you can boost China car ownership to Japan level then an insane market is created.
 

fatzergling

Junior Member
Registered Member
what more is there to consume? China already consumes more electricity than entire G7, is the largest car market, home appliance market, retail market, e commerce market, restaurant market, etc.

so what more can be consumed without being a de facto tax increase such as licensing fees for things that used to be free?
You consume "services". The US has managed a massive increase in it's economic size using "services".

Besides, ask an average American what he spends his $$ on. It's mostly on rent, utilities, insurance, childcare, and other such "services". Most of the American economy is "services", which by itself is not good or bad. However, consumption of goods and consumption of services require different metrics, especially as you can buy an appliance for a couple of years but you can only buy childcare per hour.
For example, cars. Due to different conditions, we will not compare China with US but we can compare it to Japan. Both have excellent public transportation and high population density, both Japan and Eastern China has about 300-400 people per km2. Japan rank 19 in car ownership with 700 vehicles per 1000 people while China rank 94 with 226. You can say that Chinese people don't need cars thanks to excellent public transport but so is Japan. If you can boost China car ownership to Japan level then an insane market is created.
Japan's high ownership is because of a strong domestic automobile industry from the 1950's to nowadays. In contrast, China before PRC has a grand total of 0 motor vehicles produced indigenously. As a result, Japan has plenty of time to accumulate cars over the years, naturally resulting in a high car per person ratio. In contrast, China's car industry is only now entering it's boom times. It will be interesting to compare electric car ownership between China and Japan over the next few years, as Japan automobile manufactures fall behind on this critical technology.
In other words, don't focus on what the numbers are right now, try and guess what the #'s are 5, 10, 20 years.
 
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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
You consume "services". The US has managed a massive increase in it's economic size using "services".

Besides, ask an average American what he spends his $$ on. It's mostly on rent, utilities, insurance, childcare, and other such "services". Most of the American economy is "services", which by itself is not good or bad. However, consumption of goods and consumption of services require different metrics, especially as you can buy an appliance for a couple of years but you can only buy childcare per hour.

Japan's high ownership is because of a strong domestic automobile industry from the 1950's to nowadays. In contrast, China before PRC has a grand total of 0 motor vehicles produced indigenously. As a result, Japan has plenty of time to accumulate cars over the years, naturally resulting in a high car per person ratio. In contrast, China's car industry is only now entering it's boom times. It will be interesting to compare electric car ownership between China and Japan over the next few years, as Japan automobile manufactures fall behind on this critical technology.
In other words, don't focus on what the numbers are right now, try and guess what the #'s are 5, 10, 20 years.
those are basically de-facto taxes then. if you consider everything that Chinese people get for free or via government, that would otherwise be privatized in the US, the end effect is an accounting trick to make taxes look like profit instead.

private healthcare that results in worse health outcomes than public and forces patients to keep going back? profit.

shit transit that forces you to buy a car? profit.

rent instead of building equity in property? profit.

insurance for things that would otherwise be covered by government laws and regulations? profit.

going by this, the US has some of the highest de facto taxes in the world.

For example, cars. Due to different conditions, we will not compare China with US but we can compare it to Japan. Both have excellent public transportation and high population density, both Japan and Eastern China has about 300-400 people per km2. Japan rank 19 in car ownership with 700 vehicles per 1000 people while China rank 94 with 226. You can say that Chinese people don't need cars thanks to excellent public transport but so is Japan. If you can boost China car ownership to Japan level then an insane market is created.
China doesn't even have enough parking spaces for the existing cars it has. There's 0.8 parking spaces per car in major cities, dropping to 0.5 parking spaces per car in small cities.

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Due to how precious land is in China, if choosing between high value real estate and low value parking lots, the real estate wins every time. If parking lot is made to be high value by charging high parking fees, then people will just drive less because they can't afford to park anywhere. End result: still won't be able to expand driving easily.

Also note that in both China and Japan, its households that own cars, not individuals. Japan, due to the smaller average household size (2.25 vs. 2.95 in China), would naturally have a higher car ownership rate per capita.

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Then there's the fact that Japanese still have 2nd hand cars accumulated from their 70 years of automotive experience while most cars in China are <20 years old.
 

tphuang

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For example, cars. Due to different conditions, we will not compare China with US but we can compare it to Japan. Both have excellent public transportation and high population density, both Japan and Eastern China has about 300-400 people per km2. Japan rank 19 in car ownership with 700 vehicles per 1000 people while China rank 94 with 226. You can say that Chinese people don't need cars thanks to excellent public transport but so is Japan. If you can boost China car ownership to Japan level then an insane market is created.
yes China can become an even larger consumer of cars. Keep in mind that not every city is tier 1 city, so disposable income really can't be compared to Japan yet.
what more is there to consume? China already consumes more electricity than entire G7, is the largest car market, home appliance market, retail market, e commerce market, restaurant market, etc.

so what more can be consumed without being a de facto tax increase such as licensing fees for things that used to be free?
plenty of more to consume. If you just look at the savings rate in China, people can spend a lot more money on everything
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
yes China can become an even larger consumer of cars. Keep in mind that not every city is tier 1 city, so disposable income really can't be compared to Japan yet.

plenty of more to consume. If you just look at the savings rate in China, people can spend a lot more money on everything
is the savings rate high because of low consumption or low prices?

China leads the world in sales of basically every physical item like cars, appliances and food.

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In consumer facing IT services like delivery and ecommerce China is #1.

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  • China is the largest market for food delivery, with a market size of $42.5 billion in 2022. Meituan and Ele.me control about 90% of all food delivery in the country

yet Chinese people enjoy low prices due to literally 0 inflation.

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So what more can be done to usefully increase consumption without just keeping acutal consumption the same but raising prices, in effect a de-facto tax increase?
 

Andy1974

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is the savings rate high because of low consumption or low prices?

China leads the world in sales of basically every physical item like cars, appliances and food.

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In consumer facing IT services like delivery and ecommerce China is #1.

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yet Chinese people enjoy low prices due to literally 0 inflation.

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So what more can be done to usefully increase consumption without just keeping acutal consumption the same but raising prices, in effect a de-facto tax increase?
I have the same thoughts. Right now there is a consumption push for cars and home appliances, while the government is starting to build a lot of affordable housing.

So, soon, most Chinese households will have a house full of appliances, a car, a phone and be close to all the services they would need.

it is at this point that I also start to wonder: What will they consume ??

Edit: Rent, insurance, medical, and childcare should all be affordable in China compared to the west, so all I can think of is travel and tourism.
 
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Biscuits

Major
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is the savings rate high because of low consumption or low prices?

China leads the world in sales of basically every physical item like cars, appliances and food.

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In consumer facing IT services like delivery and ecommerce China is #1.

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yet Chinese people enjoy low prices due to literally 0 inflation.

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So what more can be done to usefully increase consumption without just keeping acutal consumption the same but raising prices, in effect a de-facto tax increase?
More cars and more electronics are something that's in the pipeline already. Like you said above, there hasn't yet been an accumulation of cars in China the same way it is in Japan, due to time.

But besides from that, keeping inflation low and prices stable will breed more natural growth. It's not good for neither the long term economy or for life quality if people are given de facto taxes on useless "consumption" items.
 
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