Chinese Economics Thread

Quan8410

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Yeah, but is it worth the drag on the economy when these smokers eventually get ill and require treatment like lung transplants/surgery/canter therapies, etc?

Back then China has very young population and the government has no way to collect property tax (which should be the biggest contribution) so they can't help but turn a blind eye to it. Unless China has other way to collect tax or China population got so old then we will see some action from government.
 

fatzergling

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Back then China has very young population and the government has no way to collect property tax (which should be the biggest contribution) so they can't help but turn a blind eye to it. Unless China has other way to collect tax or China population got so old then we will see some action from government.
It will be difficult to switch from a consumption-based tax revenue strategy to an income-based tax revenue one. However, the average citizen will most likely see an overall decrease in taxes (although not apparent because China doesn't explicitly state tax in sales), since income taxes are progressive on average compared to consumption taxes.
The problem is that on the surface, income taxes "looks like" you are losing money. However, if other taxes like tobacco and alcohol can be scrapped, the overall reduction may leave poorer taxpayers a bit better off.
Property tax is like the giant bomb that China doesn't dare touch. I would be surprised in China can pull it off in the next 10 years. But developing a strong income tax system looks quite likely due to constant local deficits.
 

dingyibvs

Junior Member
E cigarette is as unhealthy as cigarette. China might want to impose more restrictions in smoking especially in public places and issue more fines and penalty. Hong Kong has a great success in discouraging smoking through making smoking a hassle.
E cigs have like 99% less known carcinogens. While we don't have enough long term data regarding whether this definitively translate to less cancers, it's a fairly safe bet.

Another big health issue with tobacco is respiratory illnesses e.g. asthma and COPD. While e-cig still increases your risk of getting those, it's far lower than with tobacco.

IMO the evidence is pretty clear that e-cigs are far, FAR healthier than regular tobacco.
 

Quan8410

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The yuan is among the worst performers among major currencies. Everyday China's state banks try to manipulate the yuan by selling the dollar just for the yuan to back to the old or even lower price at the end of the day. They cannot beat the market. The thing is even with low yuan price, export still weakening. China must turn to a consumer based economy ASAP.

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sunnymaxi

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Excellent July Month for Chinese economy overall.


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China’s Big Tech companies revive expansion plans after Beijing vows to give the green light on more deals, ends regulatory crackdown​

  • The reinvigorated state of the tech sector is reflected in the recruitment efforts of several large firms, including Alibaba, ByteDance and Meituan

China’s Big Tech companies are ramping up plans for potential new acquisitions and accelerating recruitment initiatives after
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, as Beijing’s pledge to
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and the
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have put the industry back in expansion mode.

The country’s major
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platform operators “are now in a position to keep investing in new development programmes”, said Zhuang Shuai, founder and chief analyst at market consultancy Bailian.

The reinvigorated state of the tech sector is currently reflected in the increased recruitment efforts of several large firms.

*************************************************************************************

Chinese automobile sector saw strong recovery in July. post record numbers

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406 million railway passenger trips were made in China in July, the China National Railway Group said. Some 10,169 passenger trains were sent daily during the summer vacation travel peak, up 14.2% from the same period in 2019.

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Best ever July Month at the Chinese Box office. minted 8.8 Billion RMB.

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Both mainland China and Hong Kong stock markets are rebounding rapidly after Monday's open.

 

Biscuits

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The yuan is among the worst performers among major currencies. Everyday China's state banks try to manipulate the yuan by selling the dollar just for the yuan to back to the old or even lower price at the end of the day. They cannot beat the market. The thing is even with low yuan price, export still weakening. China must turn to a consumer based economy ASAP.

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Nope, China's central bank net policy has still been currency suppression, in order to keep exports strong. If you look at the cumulative gold and foreign currency purchases, it greatly outstrips temporary delays which are usually just for fine tuning.

With like 80% consumption based economy, it would be difficult for China to orient even more in this direction. Countries like Germany are at around 50%.

Ultimately right now what China is now doing is making sure prices don't run away like it has happened in EU or US. The domestic consumers are China's greatest source of growth, as long as prices are good inside China, the economy will keep going strong.
 

Quan8410

Junior Member
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Nope, China's central bank net policy has still been currency suppression, in order to keep exports strong. If you look at the cumulative gold and foreign currency purchases, it greatly outstrips temporary delays which are usually just for fine tuning.

With like 80% consumption based economy, it would be difficult for China to orient even more in this direction. Countries like Germany are at around 50%.

Ultimately right now what China is now doing is making sure prices don't run away like it has happened in EU or US. The domestic consumers are China's greatest source of growth, as long as prices are good inside China, the economy will keep going strong.
You can be a consumption-based economy while manufacturing everything. US and EU outsource the manufacuring because of high labor cost. In the age of robots, 5g and every techonology else there, you have a lot of tools to achieve higher productivity withour worrying about labor cost. Becoming a consumption based economy is not the same as abandoning manufacturing. Majority of manufacturing will remain in China because of high-level infrastructure and complete supply chain. Chinese consume too little. They deserve more.If they consume more, demand for manufacturing will be even higher. China has like 1/5 world population and if we double or triple the demand of this population, we already gaining an additional 50% world market share or put another way, create 1 or 2 more China market. That's dual circulation.
 
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tphuang

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The yuan is among the worst performers among major currencies. Everyday China's state banks try to manipulate the yuan by selling the dollar just for the yuan to back to the old or even lower price at the end of the day. They cannot beat the market. The thing is even with low yuan price, export still weakening. China must turn to a consumer based economy ASAP.

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I posted this in the rmb thread. Chinese state banks have been huge net purchasers of foreign currencies which means they have been instruments of currency weakening of rmb.

It's really annoying for me to see pboc resort to its old trick of depreciating rmb to help exports.

So, it's really not a big deal that they have been told to sell some of that foreign currencies now. When you run huge surplus like china, you should be selling currencies that you get from trade and stop artificially suppressing your currency constantly.
 

Maikeru

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I posted this in the rmb thread. Chinese state banks have been huge net purchasers of foreign currencies which means they have been instruments of currency weakening of rmb.

It's really annoying for me to see pboc resort to its old trick of depreciating rmb to help exports.

So, it's really not a big deal that they have been told to sell some of that foreign currencies now. When you run huge surplus like china, you should be selling currencies that you get from trade and stop artificially suppressing your currency constantly.
Maybe it's more to do with today's Fitch downgrade of USTs?
 
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